Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Does that matter in the bigger picture? Edit to Add Image in Addition to Y Cantor tweet: Its subtropical

40% orange.

Latest SHIPS has AHI of zero, not at all annular, but I see only outflow channels, not feeder bands. If it could close the eyewall on the E side it would at least look annular.

I'm not sure the usual 'second season' in the Caribbean in October happens this year.

WPC QPF and 0Z GFS forecast show heaviest rain just offshore Carolinas to S New England. If this is impactful, I suspect it will be because of fresh water flooding.

I like my isobars a little more circular. Longer term, Euro and ensembles and op GFS suggest a fish from NHC 7 day orange, but enough W members on GFS ensembles to suggest a NE Caribbean/Bermuda threat. Edit to Add: weaker Euro members aren't recurving although the mean at 240 hours looks like OTS

Getting the light stratiform rain between cells, better than no rain at all.

30 knot storms on the ensemble aren't as interesting as the persistent (0, 6, 12Z) GFS ensembles suggesting a system that might not develop as quickly as its predecessors and pose a Cape Verde season in overtime threat to the E Caribbean (and SEUSA?) Weenies can ween for days, GFS family have seemed decent in not being too overenthusiastic, except in the SW Caribbean where it has done that since probably AVN/MRF days

Been skunked two days in a row. Yesterday I saw the lightning and the dark rain curtain, but nothing. The line then filled in completely once past. Trying to will storms to the WNW to move E and not SE. 1.7" PW IMBY as compared to the 2" PW to the W suggests another dry day is possible.

End of month GFS ensembles look interesting Caribbean/maybe ECUSA. Enough of a signal to show up on the means.

I feel a bit cheated. One day of RI with incredible recon (and Jova in the Pacific), then the mid-level shear and weakening. But ACE was 105 yesterday, already a near normal season in an El Nino. I thought the CSU numbers were whack, but apparently not.

The Gulf and Caribbean are staying quiet at least through the next two weeks per the GFS ensembles. Little to no activity through mid October for the Euro weeklies. Good for Florida. I don't see why the Caribbean would be so quiet, although weeklies suggesting EPAC action which would be suppressive of the Caribbean.

Only 96* in Houston and afternoon dew points dropped to 59*. And it should rain.

The Southern part of that warm area is where I would expect to see the eye with cold tops wrapping around it. The rest of it looks 'wrong' to me somehow. Like something is hindering the storm.

Open on last VDM, although that was 5 hours ago.

Good question. I do assume using the GFS to set the conditions near the edges of the nest is related to ending the high res hurricane models early. Not the same model obviously, seeing the HAFS models have ocean-atmosphere coupling the NAM's clearly don't need, but they have to becoming very dependent on the GFS boundary conditions calculated at a lower res. With the HAFs being W of the others when they end, I would want to know how they perform at the end of their runs.

Mute/Block and move on for anyone who insults your family. I also ignore 94 follower teens who use plural pronouns, as if part of a group. I try to ignore anyone with few followers who are full weenie.

Looking at the ensembles and available models after church, I would still bet money that it is far enough E of New England for no more breezes on land (like what I felt in Lafayette, LA during Georges 1998 or 2000, mostly clear skies, but noticeable breezy) but I wouldn't bet big sums. Maybe 30% chance of sensible weather beyond just fresh breezes in New England, and 15% of a landfall. If I weenie after growing up in Massapequa, I go about 5% on Long Island landfall. Hot towers and a warm spot eye on IR, not yet detectable (but should be soon) on visible and the VDM, I think a slow intensification is happening. Maybe gets to Cat 4. Coupled air/ocean HAFS=A models support call for weakening due to Franklin or its own cool wake after getting back to Cat 4. That model (Andy Hazelton must have worked on it, he is proud of it) has been decent so far.. t

Gulf/Caribbean on the ensembles look like February, as far as tropical cyclones go.

I thought I read somewhere this has happened. I might be wrong, but I wouldn't think the op would be an outlier to its ensembles.

Checking JB's Twitter feed now. Edit to Add. A Twitter met who either once posted here or Storm 2K, a Derek Ortt, who has an MS in met with a thesis about the effects of shear on systems with dry air around them, who knows more than I do, says resolutions below 10 km makes for bad tropical forecast solutions. The 3 km hurricane models follow the storms. Ortt works for a 'WxMan57', they sell products mainly to the energy industry, a big part of their business is tropical forecasting.

I didn't think any more were happening after hour 180...

Quick hitting 6 am t-shower (I was watching HGX radar, it popped up overhead while more storms were E) at 6 this morning rained on my house for 5 minutes w/ two rumbles. 106*F yesterday broke the record from the prior day which broke the record from the prior day of hottest temp/latest in the year. Only 99* predicted today in Houston.

It looks like even the GFS ensembles are down to 2 (1 NY, 1 Maine/Canada border) with US landfall. Through hour 180, but I think that shows the only US landfalls the GEFS are going to show EDIT TO ADD: Oops.

I can't remember the name/year (and I figured it was 2 or 3 years either side of 2008 but can't find it on Wiki), a major that entered the Yucatan, wandered for two or three days, and then never strengthened again once over the Gulf on the way North. Lee still has an inner core, unlike that system. But Lee has the above mentioned Franklin wake. It might stay a high end Cat 2/low end Cat 3. NHC is being kind calling a 3, IMHO (even with NOAA 100 kt SFMR). Noticing now chances of a New York/New England landfall seem very low (not impossible, just extremely low) board interest in Lee is back to the regular tropical people.