Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Suggestion in SWODY 1 of a possible Moderate later today.

NHC was up to a cherry, it is now back to an orange.

Latest 12Z GFS phase forecast via FSU web site is cold core. Highs here forecast in the low 60s Monday, I had thought of it earlier looking at the models as the Texas version of a Nor'Easter, just at least a month too early for snow. I imagine the 1895 storm resembled it. NHC lemon seems mostly driven by the GFS and family, but it has a few Euro ensemble members that develop a TC strength system. https://www.khou.com/article/news/by-the-numbers-houstons-history-of-snow/285-d9b65f7a-f789-42f0-9ca8-50ff6ce16455#:~:text=But as hard as it,in the history of Houston.

0Z Friday PWAT on 12Z GFS AOA 2 inches along the coast ahead of the front. Even DFW approaches. (TT regional views don't have PWAT, tropical views do, looking at WATL) 5 inch Thursday into Friday bulleye near Victoria. Nice rain forecast along the Texas coast, near or below an inch up in DFW. Drought is sneaking back.

Cold front is a day early per Thursday/Friday forecasts and about 6 hours early per last nights forecast. Only a couple of hours away from Houston and it was forecast last night for the evening. Noon CDT/11MDT map.

Related phenomena, late October I notice the sun setting just after 6 pm (we are W of the center of CDT) and then suddenly in November I am driving home in the dark. Must be related to the retreat of the subtropical ridge into Mexico. Speaking of La Nina type cold, near 90F today, but cold front w/ clouds and rain tonight that last until Wednesday, then a night below 40F in Houston and freezing N suburbs, if that was January I think we'd be having another winter 2020-21 and 22-23 pipe bursting lower 20s or even teens night. They don't bury pipes deep or insulate them well, but usually every 15 or 20 years, a pipe bursting palm tree stressing/killing freeze, although HOU has had 3 of them since 2009-2010 winter. Edit to Add Noon CDT (MDT in W Texas temp map. Mountains protecting El Paso from the front) It is hard, but you can see the front if you look closely..

I'm not going to look at Bastardi's tweet history, but he just re-tweeted someone saying Modoki. I sort of know what a Modoki is, sort of, I assume it would mean a winter with 4 or 5 foot plus snow storms from DC and points North? Because that is what JB lives for. But my El Nino interest is about whether pipe bursting freezes (20F or below) are coming to Houston, most common with La Ninas although overall cooler winters w/ higher snow chances are El Nino. I don't know the PDO/AO type intricacies beyond that IMBY. My palms get very stressed, but can survive temps to 15F and day plus sub-freezing, which happened in 2 or the last 3 La Nina years.

Watching YouTube and discovered there is a Fox Weather Channel, and Bryan Norcross works there. Besides the small nature of the storm and divergent pattern (in some ways a repeat of Ian, what was expected to weaken the system initially strengthened it) abnormally warm SST near-shore was explicitly mentioned as a factor in RI. I do wonder if Florida high rise building codes are followed in Acapulco.

No recon tomorrow or Tuesday.

Edited

A storm forming E of the Caribbean in the second half of October is something. Possible threat to the N Lesser Antilles. NHC forecast predicts interaction with the islands. NHC is a bit W of most of the guidance, but I'm guessing they would rather low watches than raise watches on short notice.

Although Canadian and GFS favors the really good (3 inch plus) rains along and generally W of I-35, half an inch to an inch here next week will be welcome.

NHC morning TWOAT suggests a PTC may be coming as soon as this afternoon for TS watches in the N Lesser Antilles. New GFS passes close enough to the St Martin and US and British VI for TS conditions Saturday. Candian sees a weak wave moving W which starts to develop as it moves N out of the Caribbean. NOAA tail doppler mission tomorrow morning.

The Guadeloupe hurricane not well supported by other guidance, but the most interesting scenario.

Back from a 2 lemon to a cherry again. Still looks kind of 'meh'.

NHC dropped 2 day odds to 60%. I see a low to mid level circulation 8.5N 36W. ASCAT pass from 7 hours ago suggested no well organized surface low (although winds are generally cyclonic) and not very strong (15 to 20 knot max) winds near there. Most deep convection NW of where I see the spin. 6Z GFS gets it to Puerto Rico because it is so week it gets turned back to the SW. Euro ensembles show that, the members that threaten the islands are weak. SHIPS gets it to a hurricane, but stronger shear after 3 days forecast to keep it to a Cat 1

I'm leaning out to sea for this, just a feeling, but the Euro ensemble mean is awfully close. Lot of 100+ knot storms in there as well

CV lemon mid October. 7 days cone of development looks like an August CV lemon.

29 years ago the mid level circulation of Hurricane Rosa survived the Sierra Madre and set the San Jacinto river on fire. Rosa was a major, of course, maybe it is just weenieism, but I think it is at least a hurricane at landfall in the Baja

SETX doesn't have anywhere near as much severe weather in the Spring as NTX or STX because the NW Gulf is usually quite cool and more humid air from further in the Gulf on SE winds saturates and forms fog/low clouds which usually don't break until afternoon, which in combination with the EML on low-mid levels on SW flow off the higher elevations of Mexico means a cap that isn't broken the S part of the I-45 corridor. This year there wasn't much severe down here, but it wasn't because of cold shelf waters. Next year M-A-M, if the NW Gulf is again warm, might have the type of severe weather common in much of the rest of Texas.

Morning HGX discussion mentioned Pacific system, shredded crossing the Sierra Madre, possibly developing into a hybrid low in the Gulf. Sensible weather for Texas little to none, but I could see a Florida rainstorm in a week. (1000 mb/40 knot STS type rainstorm)

Expected light show driving N on TX 249. None. Full bore thunderstorm, minus the thunder, winds probably gusting near 40 mph moving my car around, blinding rain. No thunder at all with the heavy rain. There was thunder with the light rain afterwards.

Nothing severe, but decent MCS an hour from Houston, morning commute will be interesting.

Euro weeklies have a small chance something leaks into the S GOMEX from the Pacific, and an even smaller chance of something forming/leaking into the Caribbean. It seems to be saying season over. Euro enembles seem to support the slight chance of something weak in the S. GOMEX Or I still think there is a very small chance, below a normal October, for a Florida storm. First real cold front of the season in Texas is 2 weeks late, but the season is over here. But temps only in the 70s and undefeated teams playing college football at the State Fair of Texas, the end of another dead Texas season is less depressing to my inner weenie than usual. That, and with the set up we were lucky to get a Deep South Texas late developer. Death ridge could have been no season at all.

Extra zero in 15000, and my house is only marginal, but the front Thursday looks to be a wet one as well Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 429 AM EDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Day 1 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023 - 12Z Wed Oct 04 2023 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... ...Texas Coast... Southeasterly flow from the Gulf of Mexico will interact with a coastal trough to produce showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Heavy rainfall is possible within the Slight Risk area, between Houston and Corpus Christi this afternoon, when instability will be at its peak (1000-15000J/Kg). There will be plenty of moisture present, despite the lack of dynamic support, with PWATs between 2-2.5" along the Texas coast. HREF neighborhood exceedance probabilities of 2-5" are reasonably high at this time so those were used as a proxy for this day 1 Slight Risk area.