Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Edited

A storm forming E of the Caribbean in the second half of October is something. Possible threat to the N Lesser Antilles. NHC forecast predicts interaction with the islands. NHC is a bit W of most of the guidance, but I'm guessing they would rather low watches than raise watches on short notice.

Although Canadian and GFS favors the really good (3 inch plus) rains along and generally W of I-35, half an inch to an inch here next week will be welcome.

NHC morning TWOAT suggests a PTC may be coming as soon as this afternoon for TS watches in the N Lesser Antilles. New GFS passes close enough to the St Martin and US and British VI for TS conditions Saturday. Candian sees a weak wave moving W which starts to develop as it moves N out of the Caribbean. NOAA tail doppler mission tomorrow morning.

The Guadeloupe hurricane not well supported by other guidance, but the most interesting scenario.

Back from a 2 lemon to a cherry again. Still looks kind of 'meh'.

NHC dropped 2 day odds to 60%. I see a low to mid level circulation 8.5N 36W. ASCAT pass from 7 hours ago suggested no well organized surface low (although winds are generally cyclonic) and not very strong (15 to 20 knot max) winds near there. Most deep convection NW of where I see the spin. 6Z GFS gets it to Puerto Rico because it is so week it gets turned back to the SW. Euro ensembles show that, the members that threaten the islands are weak. SHIPS gets it to a hurricane, but stronger shear after 3 days forecast to keep it to a Cat 1

I'm leaning out to sea for this, just a feeling, but the Euro ensemble mean is awfully close. Lot of 100+ knot storms in there as well

CV lemon mid October. 7 days cone of development looks like an August CV lemon.

29 years ago the mid level circulation of Hurricane Rosa survived the Sierra Madre and set the San Jacinto river on fire. Rosa was a major, of course, maybe it is just weenieism, but I think it is at least a hurricane at landfall in the Baja

SETX doesn't have anywhere near as much severe weather in the Spring as NTX or STX because the NW Gulf is usually quite cool and more humid air from further in the Gulf on SE winds saturates and forms fog/low clouds which usually don't break until afternoon, which in combination with the EML on low-mid levels on SW flow off the higher elevations of Mexico means a cap that isn't broken the S part of the I-45 corridor. This year there wasn't much severe down here, but it wasn't because of cold shelf waters. Next year M-A-M, if the NW Gulf is again warm, might have the type of severe weather common in much of the rest of Texas.

Morning HGX discussion mentioned Pacific system, shredded crossing the Sierra Madre, possibly developing into a hybrid low in the Gulf. Sensible weather for Texas little to none, but I could see a Florida rainstorm in a week. (1000 mb/40 knot STS type rainstorm)

Expected light show driving N on TX 249. None. Full bore thunderstorm, minus the thunder, winds probably gusting near 40 mph moving my car around, blinding rain. No thunder at all with the heavy rain. There was thunder with the light rain afterwards.

Nothing severe, but decent MCS an hour from Houston, morning commute will be interesting.

Euro weeklies have a small chance something leaks into the S GOMEX from the Pacific, and an even smaller chance of something forming/leaking into the Caribbean. It seems to be saying season over. Euro enembles seem to support the slight chance of something weak in the S. GOMEX Or I still think there is a very small chance, below a normal October, for a Florida storm. First real cold front of the season in Texas is 2 weeks late, but the season is over here. But temps only in the 70s and undefeated teams playing college football at the State Fair of Texas, the end of another dead Texas season is less depressing to my inner weenie than usual. That, and with the set up we were lucky to get a Deep South Texas late developer. Death ridge could have been no season at all.

Extra zero in 15000, and my house is only marginal, but the front Thursday looks to be a wet one as well Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 429 AM EDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Day 1 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023 - 12Z Wed Oct 04 2023 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... ...Texas Coast... Southeasterly flow from the Gulf of Mexico will interact with a coastal trough to produce showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Heavy rainfall is possible within the Slight Risk area, between Houston and Corpus Christi this afternoon, when instability will be at its peak (1000-15000J/Kg). There will be plenty of moisture present, despite the lack of dynamic support, with PWATs between 2-2.5" along the Texas coast. HREF neighborhood exceedance probabilities of 2-5" are reasonably high at this time so those were used as a proxy for this day 1 Slight Risk area.

I'm all in on a hybrid 977 mb storm NW of Spain in 10 days.

Autumn is finally coming.

Unless something changes Florida looks safe into mid-October from Caribbean systems. Not only is shear across the Gulf strong per GEFS the entire run, it has a NW component to it. SW shear could at least ventilate a system lifting into the Gulf. SW shear didn't impact Ian negatively very much when it entered the Gulf. But NW shear and dry air should mitigate the risk for a strong Gulf system.

Monday was wind and thunder and power out, Tuesday looked to be dry with big storms to the E, but they made it here around 7 pm. Severe warned, but just a nice rain with a little thunder. Maybe turning the corner on the drought. Warmer than normal doesn't look to change.

NASCAR doesn't draw the crowds it used to at TMS, on the Wise/Denton County border. (Part of Fort Worth, even though not in Tarrant County). Still, probably >50.000 people at an outdoor sporting event. I wonder what hail would do to the race cars.

Idalia has a decent shot at retirement. As far as the never ending CV/Atlantic MDR season, 91L, although intensity guidance seems to suggest it may not become a hurricane. SHIPS shear increases to near 30 knots in 3 days.

Area of storms that on current trend will miss Houston metro to the E. CAPE is sufficient, a bit of backbuilding W wouldn't be surprising. And then whatever comes down this evening/tonight from the North and Central Texas SPC outlooked storms. 7 day GFS ensemble rain total for my house (and on down into STX) is just under half an inch. Hit and miss nature of recent rain suggests fire danger still exists.

How many depressions form E of 50W after September 21?

A day old, but I was busy. Lower Gulf pressures would rob convergence from the Caribbean, but one good cold front might fix that. I'm a little impressed CV season is still going past the Equinox.