Ed, snow and hurricane fan

I'm guessing degree days, or the amount of home heating oil and the like, for March will be below normal. Money in the pocket.

The further East a storm forms, the better the chance that mid-level weakness a shallow wave wouldn't be influenced by would recurve that storm. Most CV storms recurve. Most, not all, Hurricane Donna, a storm my parents remembered, that hit every state to some degree in 1960, was a depression before Cabo Verde. 1938, a storm my 90 year old Mom still remembers (her older brother with cystic fibrosis had to walk home from school with tree limbs coming down) was also a long tracker. There have been quite a few not quite technically Cabo Verde storms that made it. Isabel comes to mind. The further E the development, the better the chance of a recurve, but more MDR storms, if the percentage of early recurvers stays the same means more storms that didn't recurve. Oh, and warming ocean may be displacing the Bermuda-Azores high to the W. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/24/5/2010jcli3829.1.xml

That is what I am implying. Carnot Engines were a thing in steam powered power plants, if the heat sink warms and nothing else changes the process becomes less efficient. A steam powered ship is more efficient in cooler waters, and the crews working in them were much more comfortable as well. https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee102/node/1942#:~:text=The Carnot Efficiency is the,reservoir operates ( TCold ). Edit to add a picture. Note the beard, just as I was about to be transferred to sea, beards for NCO's were disallowed. I had to pass an interview with 'Mo Gamma' and the CO to be allowed to operate the heat source.

I think it is relative, there are occasionally storms that form over waters below 26 degrees at higher latitudes (although there may be baroclinic enhancement at higher latitudes). A slightly cooler atmosphere probably reduces the heat necessary to drive the Carnot engine (less static stability), A warming atmosphere, and warming waters over the heat sink portion/downward motion part of the Hadley cell should raise the requirement for SST, it would seem. The question to me is if the negative effects of warming non-tropical oceans and a warmer atmosphere increases at the same rate the positive effects of warming MDR SST. At least for now the positives of warmer SST seems to be outweighing any negatives of warming away from the MDR. CFS ASO doesn't look abnormally active judging by precip.

The NMME and Canadian may or may not be suggesting an East Coast tropical system in September. Looking out is why the El Nino/la Nina threads get multiple posts per day.

1/200 year return frequency on a VEI 6 or higher eruption, the world might get lucky. About 75 years for a VEI 5/Mt. Ste. Helens event, assuming we could get a standard SO2 blast. I suspect some unpleasant weather/climate affects, but it'd knock down record SSTs for a few years, if I had to guess.

I used to drive nuclear reactors in the Navy. I know, scary. But nuke plants and natural gas plants would be the cleanest source of electricity that didn't depend on wind levels and insolation. Methane is 2 waters per one CO2. Granted, water vapor is also a greenhouse gas, but not to the extent CO2 is. Navy standard nuke plants, not 1970s lowest bidder US plants or Soviet plants, not built in tsunami zones (and simple things like not putting the backup DGs in the basement so storm surge from hurricanes benefitting from record MDR temps) would be safe. Nuke waste is another issue, but fear of waste 2000 feet below the water table in tunnels in the desert is more emotional than scientific.

What year was that Nino?

I noticed during Spring Break (all years but one I was working in Austin, but it applied to South Party Island as well) there was usually one final 2 or 4 day break of 40s at night and 50s day, and more seasons than not that was the final really depressing cool (but not cold enough to snow) snap of winter. I remember the Central Texas Easter weekend snow of 2007 (I had to check Google for the year).

6Z ensembles look so different. Off or on topic, I was in elementary school in the 70s, and at least on Long Island that was a boring period snow wise until the Arctic 76-77 and magic 77-78 winters. February 78 storm, I missed 5 days of Catholic school in Amityville. Wonderful. Our drainage sewers ran to the Great South Bay, and salt water backing up had the 2 feet of snow near the drains green tinged. Wonderful.

Joe Bastardi thinks volcanoes. I don't know why he think subsea volcanism is suddenly up the last couple of decades.

I can't find the post on Space City Weather, but Matt Lanza, a Houston energy sector met, said a strong Nino is usually followed by a near normal hurricane season, but there have been exceptions, such as 2016. Lanza did state the abnormally warm Atlantic MDR temps could make the near normal after a strong Nino correlation fail. I'd also note that the notion of the late 1990s that the 15-20 year active cycles followed by similar length inactive cycles appears wrong based on the general greater activity that started in 1995 having passed 20 years almost a decade ago. IMBY, we had a once every decade or two cold snap (low temps in the city in the teens) in 3 of the last 4 winters, the one in 2024 being the first I remember in an El Nino year.

Sam Houston State University and the large Texas correctional complex in the warning, BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 940 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 The National Weather Service in League City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas... Southeastern Walker County in southeastern Texas... * Until 1015 AM CST. * At 940 AM CST, a tornado producing storm was located over Huntsville State Park, or near Huntsville, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic storm will be near... Eastern Huntsville and Huntsville State Park around 945 AM CST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Oakhurst.

Is anyone starting an early Spring tornado outlook thread. Assuming the warm ENSO STJ persists, meaning at least a few phased systems, and away from the shelf waters, the GOMEX is warmer than usual, I suspect an active 'Dixie Alley' season.

Semi-OT, but I drove a rental from ABQ to a job interview in Los Alamos in the winter, circa 2000, and crossing the Rio Grande as a small, clean river with snow on the ground around it is a lot different than crossing the Rio Grande at Laredo.

Is any of that the ensembles moving the storm faster? That doesn't help totals much, of course, but maybe keeps the R-S line fairly stationary.

Maybe sun angle will be discussed a few weeks earlier than normal.

I-35 corridor from just S of Austin to San Antonio and westward toward the Mexican border has a sig severe hail risk. I'm wondering about Houston tomorrow, little low level instability or shear but >7C lapse rates above a slight warm nose and shear with slight turning but increasing from ~40 knots at 850 mb to 70 knots at 500 mb should mean at least a chance for hail here. Ensembles show a fairly strong looking trough in the sub tropical jet approaching California and the Baja late this week into the weekend. Strong signal on the big 3 ensembles for significant rain down @Stx_Thunder's direction.

Per TWC yesterday, the next week will be the rainiest week in Los Angeles in 14 years, and most of that falls in 3 days. High Risk of flooding Day 3 in the Los Angeles metro. WPC disco: Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 154 PM EST Sat Feb 03 2024 Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 04 2024 - 12Z Mon Feb 05 2024 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Central to Southern California... The latest models are in good agreement on the evolution of a strengthening cyclone off the central California coast early Sunday as this low pushes northward towards the northern California coast. The strong IVT values that begin to impact the central California coast late day 1, ~1000 kg/m/s, will persist into central California coast range, pushing inland into the northern portions of the San Joaquin Valley and Sacramento Valley and southward into the Transverse Range. Strong inflow and available instability across the area will allow for 1" an hour rain totals, which would be especially problematic where there are burn scars. The probabilities of 8"+ in 24 hours are high enough to introduce a High Risk for portions of the southern CA Transverse ranges. General 3 to 5" areal average amounts likely in both the Transverse and Central California Coast Ranges, with maximum totals just over 10" possible in areas of most persistent training and upslope flow. Modest expansions were made to the Slight and Moderate Risk areas.

I didn't mention the DYX area tornado was in low 60sF dewpoint, Temps that cool never support surface based severe in HGX. Noticing for years Wyoming having tornadoes with 65/50. cc; @Chinook Rainfall with earlier storms may exceed forecast Houston area 1-2"

Reminded me, TWC said either 14 or 17 years since Los Angeles had this much 7 day rainfall. Not many California people on this forum, apparently, but this is newsworthy. I was stationed in California in the '80s.

Ed from Texas here (family from N. Quincy and I lived in Massapequa, and I've seen snowstorms in both) Voodoo Ranger IPA tastes good and is 9% ABV. Edible talk, CBD is legal here, THC, not w/o a prescription. My wife, adult daughter, and I, ten years behind the time, shall start bingeing 'Breaking Bad'. We didn't have Netflix back then. I think it was on Netflix. I am a science teacher who now I teaches Algebra, science being more fun, but I'm not teaching in Houston. EDIT- local news (KHOU), the ever unreliable ERCOT has plans for the loss of solar power during the full eclipse.

Rumble of thunder just now N suburbs of Houston. Earlier than expected. Radar not that impressive. I don't expect severe, it is just too cool (I still don't know how 60sF work further N but not here- confirmed rope tornado with temps in the low 60s), although I suppose marginally severe hail is possible (latest HRRR shows ~1000 mb of MUCAPE. HRRR is less enthusiastic with midnight/just after severe in the AUS-SAT corridor.

Oh, hey. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service San Angelo TX 536 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 TXC207-030015- /O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240203T0015Z/ Haskell TX- 536 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTY... At 535 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles southeast of Rule, moving northeast at 20 mph. At 5:31 PM law enforcement reported a rope tornado about 5 miles east of Sagerton. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Haskell around 540 PM CST. Stamford around 555 PM CST.