Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Cells ahead of the main line around Victoria forecast by 3km NAM. Shear isn't impressive above the LFC, but >8C lapse rates (and a TT over 60 because of that), there could be some decent hailers. Later, around San Antonio, a suggestion of embedded cells in the line which might also mean some hail.

I'm not pessimistic. I feel Presidents Day 3 coming!

Training storms in a SW-Ne axis looking to actually be shifting North from E of SAT up to near SHV. That line will never make Houston, but latest HRRR has more development over S Texas that should be approaching the HOU metro early morning.

Speaking of El Nino and IMBY weather- Matt Lanza, reading between the lines, doesn't think El Nino will weaken quite as fast as the models, but even so, since 1950, the first hurricane season after a strong Nino tends to be about average. Although while the recent fronts have cooled the Gulf nicely, the MDR is still abnormally warm. https://theeyewall.com/winter-prepares-to-take-a-break-so-well-talk-about-crawfish-recent-research-and-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/

Is there time for the forecast weakening of the Nino (IRI dynamic has it below 1 by mid FMA) to allow for an interesting March weather wise in the I-95 corridor? I don't post much in this thread, I don't know enough about tropical wave forcing to make informative comments or ask informed questions.

Tomorrow there should be thunder with >7C ML lapse rates, but they won't be surface based. Now, SPC has outlooked a Marginal for Wednesday. Tuesday looks sort of interesting S of I-10.

Models have backed off a smidge on next week's rain in S/SE Texas, but widespread >3 inch rains still look possibly. FWD not going with a WWA, models came in a smidge less precip and slightly warmer temps per AFD.

Still time for things to change for Monday, but GFS still shows the warm sector confined to the immediate coast and a near saturated sounding from the surface to 200 mb. Greater than 50 knot LLJ and PW's near 1.6 inches and a divergent jet means heavy rain, which all the important globals have been seeing for several days. GFS/CMC/Euro differ in exact amounts and locations, but all show widespread 2 inch plus amounts. Differences become more pronounced with succeeding rain events, but the neg tilt trough is in no hurry to move out. By Thursday evening the rain events have dropped a large area of 5 inches with some 10 inch amounts showing up. Not ruling out severe, the warm sector coming a bit farther inland opens up SETX and the Coastal Bend, and there are hints of that for Wednesday.

Severe is possible, but the 2 systems early week have 5 inch rain bullseyes on both the GFS and CMC. GFS suggests CAPE is low with a nearly saturated profile. 1.6 inch PW. Of course, 6 days out, the warm sector not quite getting beyond the coast can change. On another note, 19F this morning for a min at IAH breaks the daily record of 22F from 1972.

I somehow doubt the Canadian (it shows a big DFW ice storm), but all the globals like heavy precip next Monday-Tuesday.

Very light drizzle, water on the sidewalks is water, but building up on plants and cars in Houston. Klein and Tomball ISD, among others, have cancelled school.

The switch from rain to sleet was pretty fast.

Liquid rain halfway between IAH and DWH. 34F at airport, temp and DP are falling. If we get ice beyond a trace of freezing drizzle, I will have been wrong based on trusting models. Edit: IAH is now 28F

Driving down from DFW, about 1 pm near Alma the grassy surfaces alongside I-45 were white with sleet. No precip, down toward Corsicana, light sleet or snow flurries, not sticking to anything. Big rise in temp, about 15 degrees in maybe 30 miles around Huntsville. 18F on Toyota thermometer in DFW, 47F Spring area. No idea why Houston metro is in a WWA. A trace of precip over many hours w/ marginal temps, I guess an abundance of caution. I can see that well NW of metro Houston. Interestingly, freezing precip gets very near the coast well S of Houston, but not the Houston metro.

Canadian Reggie has a decent sleet/ice event from the Hill Country to the far W and NW suburbs of Houston. Not sure how trustworthy a mesoscale is this far from the center of the domain and this far out in time. 18Z NAM not as impressive, but similar areas. Total precip on the 12 NAM about 0.2 inches liquid equivalent of sleet and ice. Reggie has a stripe of >0.5 liquid equivalent of snow, ice and sleet from just E of DFW towards Texarkana.

That storm comes through Houston first and local NWS is discounting the Euro in favor of the Canadian and GFS. Euro is only one w/ chance for a Houston ice disaster MLK day into Tuesday, although verbatim smidge too warm. Freakish cold, in the teens. Freakish except 2/2021 and 12/2022 also had sub 20F nights, 2021 was the power grid failure. No longer doubt CC, two months over 100F and pushing 110F many days, followed by once every 20 year cold spells happening almost every year means something has changed. What does NBM guidance show?

HGX is pretty much dismissing Euro solution of freezing rain in Houston on MLK Day, but both KTRK (ABC 13) and KHOU (I expected better from David Paul) seem all in on the Euro. I trust NWS and the GFS.

Although El Nino winters are usually cooler on average, all the nasty, freakish (low 20s or below) cold snaps that have hit Houston happened during cold ENSOs, and NWS forecasting teens.

Oh dear.

Euro 850 temps reach freezing around 12Z Monday, with three to four tenths falling. I'm going to be optimistic and say 4 inches of snow isn't out the question. That is good news, bad news is Houston drops to between 20 and 24F Tuesday morning with near 15 hours of sub-freezing weather. This results in my palm tree looking like it is dead for 4 or 5 months after. Would have been nice to not have a hard freeze two of the last three winters.

Sleet and snow MLK day in Dallas per 0Z and 6Z GFS.

Meanwhile, IRI models suggest a neutral ENSO around the Equinox. It'll be interesting to see if the Atlantic again has record and near record warmth. The Nino style quick hitting rains every 3 or 4 days continues in Texas with cooler than normal but not cold temps. The frequency is just enough to limit deep return of Gulf moisture, although tomorrow night into Tuesday morning, I-10 corridor from Baton Rouge to Panama City is in an enhanced risk with hatched tornadoes, where enough of a warm sector looks to come ashore. That extends to ECUSA Tuesday.

Hatched tornado Monday I-10 corridor from BTR to KECP. The worst looks to be Mississippi and Alabama after midnight. South Alabama sounding below

Been 40 years since I've been in New England, I recall Nissin was the popular winter storm bread.

40 knot sustained 10 m winds on Long Island mid-week on 18Z GFS, that probably adds some salt water to the fresh water flooding