Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Congratulations in South Texas. Nice drought denter. A quarter inch of rain will be the first rain in Houston since 4th of July weekend, and won't do much. Trees are starting to look sick, the grasses are brown. Just need a couple of windy days to start several large wildfires.

Some Pacific basin lows cross into the BoC. I think the Euro ensembles are too juiced this year, but getting a named storm from the Pacific to cross basins would be different.

Recon data usually updates fairly often on Cowan's Tropical Tidbits page. Looks like the plane has descended to mission altitude. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Looking at the CIMSS product, the best low-mid level vorticity is a bit S of the convection, with the max vort over E Cuba. I hope convection can pull vorticity N, I want a NW Gulf system that breaks all month no rain/100F here in SETX. Modelling is shifting S towards the Texas Coastal Bend, which doesn't help me. I can now see it on MIMIC-TPW product, it wasn't so obvious before. In the MDR, 99L looks better to me on satellite, but 98L looks better on the TPW loop. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

Positive side of heavy rain in the desert, the resorts around the Salton Sea were abandoned in the 60s and 70s as the lake levels dropped, maybe it will bring back tourism. On the more serious side, I watch engineering disaster shows, and desert highway bridges over arroyos secos have a bad habit of collapsing in the ever more frequent once in a century flood. The stream beds often change course and wash out where protective 'rip rap' wasn't placed. Interstates like 5, 15 and 10, all vital routes, could be closed.

A 50 knot storm near San Diego will cause issues beyond just excessive rainfall

Euro slowly backing away from a strong tropical wave, I think GFS weak wave with showers is likely outcome. CBS TV in HOU breaks the >100F streak from 30 August (and no rain since July 6th) with 98F and 30/40% rain chances Tues/Wednesday, but models don't support that. I think the 2011 record was 36 days in a row above 100, I think Houston can come close.

1939.

OT 3rd time in a day I get a notification @ldub23 has quoted me in this thread, and when I look, there is no quote. I wonder if he is replying, and them immediately deleting just to make me look.

The model most enthusiastic about a needed TD/TS for Houston, where it hasn't rained since July 4th weekend and every day since July 30 has been >100F, the Euro, has backed down. Still decent Euro ensemble support, but nothing from the GFS ensembles. The trend is a weaker and weaker wave. Euro is starting to trend towards GFS rainfall. Interesting speculation on which part of the MT develops, 99L can affect the islands, but everything else is just guessing where, when and if the next fish storm forms. But a door closes and a window opens, I know Hilary will be passing cold water once past the central Baja, but I think it might still be a named and not yet post-tropical storm when it reaches SoCal.

98L looks good on CIMSS MIMIC TPW. GFS suggests it doesn;t live long, but a name is possible. Shear and dry air as it heads NW. I'm interested in seeing if 99L can avoid development and get closer to the Caribbean. I want the Gulf lemon to develop, but models besides Euro, and even op Euro is meh, don't close a depression. GFS rainfall amounts from the wave are not impressive at all. Under half an inch. Euro's wave is generally an inch. Only a couple of GFS ensembles close a low. 20% probs are too high, for what will be an underwhelming wave with not that much rainfall. El Nino shear is coming, only a small window for anything before everything becomes unfavorable. LC's 11/4/1 seems like a good call.

98L per SHIPS is a hurricane in 3 days before 35 knot shear starts to destroy it.

NHC forecast has it as non-tropical, but I haven't given up hope Hilary will not be declared post tropical before California.

12Z GFS almost closed the wave in the Gulf, the 18Z was a little further off. Only a couple of the 18Z GEFS close a low. 12Z Canadian very weak low near the border is worst case scenario with 18 straight 100°F days in Houston and 7 weeks no rain. 18Z GFS wave does drop a widespread inch of rain. Not enough to stop the inevitable fires a week or two later. I think the big show this week is whether NHC will declare Hilary non-tropical before California. Forecast shows that, but I'm hoping. The wave near the CVs 'has the look' on MIMIC-TPW, even if it satellite presentation doesn't look that great.

100°F today as a high, the high yesterday was 105°F, or we are cooler. 18Z GFS averages about an inch in SETX with the tropical wave. Doesn't look like any 18Z GFS ensembles close a low with that wave.

5 of the 18Z GFS ensemble members have very weak systems in the Gulf in the next week. This is mostly a Euro family thing, and Euro seems to have been tweaking. I think NHC could have waited a day or two to see if model support increased. Speaking of tweaking, the GFS ensembles in 12 days...

As sometimes happens when depending on a tropical wave 10 days in the future, the op Euro cancelled the rain. EDIT TO ADD: There is a lemon in the Gulf, apparently based only on Euro ensembles, as only 5 GFS ensemble members have anything, all weaker than 1000 mb.

HRD scientist doesn't seem to buy the development approaching 60W in 6 days on the ensembles. Nor does NHC, apparently.

Ballpark 60% of the ensembles at this time have a TC in the Gulf or off SEUSA, looks like about 40% of Euro ensembles have a one. 18Z Euro ensembles, about half of the members have the first wave off Africa as a TC next Saturday, with the weaker members entering the Caribbean, the stronger passing N of the Caribbean. Or, I say a coin flip we have at least one TC by early next week. If Euro ensembles are correct, NHC's lemon bubble may be oriented to much from SSE to NNW, when the ensembles are closer to E to W

As a rule, play by play at hour 300 on the GFS isn't probably needed. If those are still here in ten days, model run play by play, New England forum snowstorm style where people note the 200 mb jet streak over Minnesota is deeper than the prior run, that is coo..

Recurvature seems to be a GFS ensemble trend as well for the members that develop a cyclone. IMBYish, I'm wondering why various ensemble families seem to like the Caribbean/Gulf and SEUSA near/after 10 days. Even if I reject the GFS Gulf ensemble members that develop a storm out of the SW Caribbean (coming of S America?) as a known GFS model family issue, Euro/CMC/GFS family all suggest something becomes more conducive to development in the W part of the basin.

Mid August and the GFS tries a couple of times, but fails, no TCs through 16 days. Even CMC is two weak systems at 10 days, down from 4 yesterday. OTOH, CFS weekly shear in the Caribbean doesn't look Nino-ish. A few GFS develop weak cyclones in the E Gulf in 5 days, I don't know if that is the little wave E of the Bahamas, or maybe something on the tail end of the trough/weak cold front. Wishcasting that, a 1007 mb depression into Texas would be just what the doctor ordered after 7 weeks of no rain and temps near/above 100F for a month. Ensembles like one of the freshly offshore or soon to be offshore waves (see picture), even if the op doesn't, maybe that gets us one named storm by this time next week. New post while I was typing, inspires the question, is there a wave on satellite that is the seed of the Gulf activity? Some of the TT ensembles look to develop something in situ in the Gulf, more move something out of the Caribbean, starting near S. America, and I tend to have issues with the GFS seeming to develop things coming off South America. I don't know why, the resolution is low to begin with and doesn't change, but the ensembles get funny, IMO, after about 12 days. In its defense, Canadian ensembles start liking the Caribbean, then the Gulf and off Florida, past 10 days.

I consider the GFS a 'super control' ensemble member past hour 240. It is showing what could happen in ten to 16 days. Op runs shuuld be like CMC and Euro, 10 days. Takeaway for me is the tropics get active in another ~10 days, several waves that could develop, and then the season shuts down less than a month later as El Nino takes control with increased Caribbean shear (I don't understand which image is which, scales, or where they came from, but the Danny Morris post above that the Nino like shear, beginning of month shown to start early September, is pushed back to mid September). I had to check, and yes, somebody posted the 384 simulated IR of the model's Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane approaching Louisiana on Twitter. Maybe another reason the model should run to 10 days, the freed up computer resources, maybe run the model at a finer resolution and use more complex physics and fewer simplifying assumptions. And fewer scary images on Twitter.

0Z GFS post cold front makes Houston hotter, per GFS, Temps low 100s°F Tuesday go to mid 100s Wednesday and Thursday. Dewpoints drop to perhaps upper 40s in Wednesday afternoon, so heat index shouldn't change. NWS forecast is for 20% T-storm chances Tuesday with no change in temperatures. A few splotches of .05 inch rainfall in SETX, outside of the Panhandle nobody in Texas does better than a quarter inch in the next week. Last rain in Houston was July 6, or wildfire risks should only climb.

I don't know what site images are from, the specific days, or anything else that would usually be part of a map legend, but he seems one of the better amateurs on Twitter. Main point is the arrival of El Nino shear may be delayed.