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jdj5211

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Everything posted by jdj5211

  1. jdj5211
    we'll have to see how quick that coastal low can deepen when it gets off shore..... looks like a Monday morning to Monday evening event for the NY metro.... temps in the mid 20s throughout storm....10-1 minimum as far as ratio....could easily see 12-1
  2. jdj5211
    GFS amped and deepening precip shield further to the north....should be a good hit coming....
  3. jdj5211
    End of the 0z NAM run looked good.....things seem to be trending north still.....0z GFS and Euro will be telling
  4. jdj5211
    doubt we'd be looking at 10-1 ratios here....it's mighty cold
  5. jdj5211
    RAP still likes the heavy band in Northern NJ/NYC area
  6. jdj5211
    18Z NAM Kuchura
  7. jdj5211
    18Z RAP is a nice hit....
  8. jdj5211
    Kuchura is actually showing more than the 10:1 map on most models. Being this will all fall mostly overnight with temps in the high 20s could lead to better than 10:1 in some spots
  9. jdj5211
    Next chance is this Saturday
  10. jdj5211
    Here are the current surface temps: Cold air is just about creeping into NW corner of NJ. We'll see how fast it can get through the region
  11. jdj5211
    RAP needs to come about 75 miles NW to be in the sweet spot. Still holding firm on heaviest axis of snow through CNJ and LI
  12. jdj5211
    Latest 18Z RDPS keeps heaviest snowfall right over NNJ/NYC Metro
  13. jdj5211
    Latest 18Z ICON holds heaviest snowfall axis to the north
  14. jdj5211
    latest 20Z RAP at 10:1 ratio....heaviest snows remain through CNJ. NY state basically a complete miss at this point
  15. jdj5211
    This is literally a 6-7 hour storm, it's moving very quick. Even if you average an inch an hour, at best it's a 6 inch storm. No one is getting a foot of snow here. 3-6 is the safest call, with maybe a few 6+ lollipops in my opinion
  16. jdj5211
    Jan 29, 2022?
  17. jdj5211
    Look at the NAM 10-1 map and then the Kuchera map....notice anything? Kuchura was cutting totals 2-3 inches earlier....now it's almost identical in NNJ...models start to pick up on colder solution, trending back towards a 10-1 ratio....
  18. jdj5211
    NAM is a big hit....can't ignore this trend now....
  19. jdj5211
    Model temps are not an exact science....nothing is.... I'm about 4-5 degrees colder today than I was "supposed" to be....we'll see if models play temperature catchup as we get closer
  20. jdj5211
    The HRRR is interesting and certainly possible if we get a bombing 980mb low at the position. 18Z NAM running now. Time to start looking at the meso models as we get closer to the event.
  21. jdj5211
    For what it's worth, NAM goes 7-9 inches NNJ at 10:1.....probably 3-6 with marginal temps....
  22. jdj5211
    Ah I see....WESTERN Passaic and Bergen.....I have a WSW in Morris county for 4-8
  23. jdj5211
    6-8 in NE NJ? What are they seeing that we aren't?
  24. jdj5211
    now Euro will come on board with a big hit....just to keep messing with our heads
  25. jdj5211
    00Z GFS complete swing and a miss OTS
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