jdj5211

Would imagine the precip shield would be much larger than that .

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GFS is bombs away! .

Very fine flakes all morning in Montville off 287. Haven’t seen any larger flakes yet. Guessing about 2-3 inches this far .

All I know is that radar looks HEALTHY! .

I don’t think the NAM is wrong, but I do have a hard time seeing sleet push all the way up damn near Poughkeepsie. The battleground for these storms is almost always that I-78 line and maybe a little further north. .

17 here. Feel like temp of -1. Let’s go NAM! .

I think it’s really only 2 things at this point that will determine what’s going to happen here…. 1. Where does the low transfer to the coast? That transfer point makes all the difference 2. Where does the sleet line reach. Part of that is affected by the transfer location and another is how long it takes to push out the dense cold air in place at the mid levels. One thing is very clear, the QPF has steady increased from most models averaging 0.8-1.1 to now 1.5+. That’s a substantial increase in the amount of moisture and potential snowfall. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised with 18-24 inch totals somewhere in the northern subs. .

12Z NAM running…. .

As exciting as this storm is, I really hope next weekends storm pans out, monster KU type potential with that setup. One at a time but hard to not be excited for what could be to come! .

I’m right off 287 in Morris County. Seems like it might be right near the sleet/snow battleground. Curious to see where I end up. Preparing for 8 or 20 at this point .

We’ve also seen plenty of times when the NAM shows 30+ amounts 48 hours before a storm and those locations end up with 6-12. Like most storms, likely going to be a nowcast situation with some hopefully pleasant surprises. .

Steven’s thoughts…. .

One thing it may be picking up on, which we’ll see in the 0z runs coming up, is an overall slower evolution of the system. It’s slowed down each of the past few runs. That slower system could ultimately cause the GFS solution to be correct. .

There’s been many….which one specifically .

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Likely some 18-24 inch amounts would pop up with this run verbatim .

As I was saying…..wow .

GFS going to be a big hit .

Secondary low is much stronger here .

Crappy when it’s not a great run. Good when it is a great run! As is the rule with all models. .

Ewwwww .

ICON with the warm push .

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