jdj5211

NAM running…. .

Major difference is the PNA ridge amplification. I’d like to see that continue tonight. It would amplify the trough downstream. This would pull it further SW. Look at the height trends starting to rise off the east coast. I don’t think we’re out of the game yet. It’s the bottom of the 7th but we have a few runners on and we’re down by a few runs!

0Z CFS was a big hit....12Z CFS runs later....not sure how good this model even is.....

End of the NAM run…. .

Bernie not on board with this one…… .

Can we change the title of this thread to: It’s not coming 1/31-2/1 Please…. .

This just has the feels of a miss….and partially because we can’t get this lucky, it just doesn’t happen. .

ICON OTS .

Anyone have the 6z Euro? .

This is funny….and also a bit insane. .

Curious to see the spread on the ensembles. Would hope for just a slightly left lean at this point in the game. .

So close! .

What a beast! .

Would imagine the precip shield would be much larger than that .

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GFS is bombs away! .

Very fine flakes all morning in Montville off 287. Haven’t seen any larger flakes yet. Guessing about 2-3 inches this far .

All I know is that radar looks HEALTHY! .

I don’t think the NAM is wrong, but I do have a hard time seeing sleet push all the way up damn near Poughkeepsie. The battleground for these storms is almost always that I-78 line and maybe a little further north. .

17 here. Feel like temp of -1. Let’s go NAM! .

I think it’s really only 2 things at this point that will determine what’s going to happen here…. 1. Where does the low transfer to the coast? That transfer point makes all the difference 2. Where does the sleet line reach. Part of that is affected by the transfer location and another is how long it takes to push out the dense cold air in place at the mid levels. One thing is very clear, the QPF has steady increased from most models averaging 0.8-1.1 to now 1.5+. That’s a substantial increase in the amount of moisture and potential snowfall. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised with 18-24 inch totals somewhere in the northern subs. .

12Z NAM running…. .

As exciting as this storm is, I really hope next weekends storm pans out, monster KU type potential with that setup. One at a time but hard to not be excited for what could be to come! .

I’m right off 287 in Morris County. Seems like it might be right near the sleet/snow battleground. Curious to see where I end up. Preparing for 8 or 20 at this point .