I noticed the HAFS-A in particular has been insistent since 06z in creating this moat before landfall when the hurricane is near peak strength in the 910s. doesn’t weaken the storm at all once the moat forms either.
idk man. When every single major model showed a 6-12inch event minimum in DC during the 12z suite, I would say the chances of DC not seeing anything are incredibly small from this event.