IronTy

JB was all over this in a recent post but fortunately he didn't explain it either. He's usually pretty good about explaining things in his premium members videos (nothing like his lame tweets). Again, I give him a lot of shit but he's usually pretty good in his actual videos vs. lame tweets.

45 days, 45 hours...220, 221...whatever it takes...basically the same thing.

It does seem that significant pattern changes are often ushered in by some monster storm...hopefully this evolves appropriately. I still believe that there has to be some snap back if only because it's so statistically unlikely that we could run the entire winter with anomalies this far above average. There has to be some balancing out and the longer we stay this warm the more instense the snap back needs to be. Of course that's just statistics and not considering the organic nature of weather. I suppose the entire winter could torch and then we snap back to extreme cold in march or april when it's unwanted, we seem to do that pretty well.

It is a pretty awesome comma

Good analysis. He didn't go into any detail on it so I don't how he's factoring the influence of the gulf +SSTs into his thinking. How do you square the anomalously warm gulf waters with the past 3-4 summers where we've had relatively moderate high temps and extensive precip? I figured we'd be experiencing massive Bermuda highs and extreme heat and drought but clearly I'm wrong.

Does that light in the storm guy still post? I searched the web but couldn't find anything. ETA - nvm I found him. Website doesn't appear to have been updated for this winter. Bummer, I liked him too.

I went and listened to the noted passage from JB and he was referring to the abnormally warm gulf waters similar to you. I could sense from his voice that it was painful for him to admit it. Will JB become an AGW convert? Stay tuned...

You gotta look at the kuchera maps, much more accurate than the standard 10:1.

The big ones are sniffed out early.

Yeah that's the guy. Too bad he stopped posting.

Does anybody remember the name of the weather blog by that guy who basically hated the world and lamented twitter weenies all the time in his posts? He had homer simpson as his avatar I think. He used to post good stuff on his website but I totally forgot what the name of it was.

GFS has DC at 71F on jan-5 now lol. Petunias and hostas are in no danger.

I actually hate hostas, they're non native and have little environmental value outside of slugs, and deer love them. So I'm all for the hostapacolypse.

That hosta is gonna regret it in about 10 days* *Take it to the bank

Where'd that come from? Boss run. In the meantime here's a pic of my elevated potted petunias still blooming.

"Have to lay down the glacier to make way for the Arctic Express".

Wee bit of cold in there I'd say.

What a time it was. It seems like warnings were hoisted weekly and schools were shut down for weeks.

And I still save my Feb 2010 WSW text like a talisman. Godspeed brother. . WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WITH NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS... IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE... HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS... STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 16 TO 24 INCHES. * TIMING... SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MID-MORNING... AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING BETWEEN SUNSET FRIDAY TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE MOST HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT... WHEN THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE... PRODUCING NEAR- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

I agree, it sucks. This format is much better for actual content sharing but that isn't the way everybody is moving. This is actually the last of about a dozen boards I'm a member of including motorcycling, bodybuilding, financial, energy, etc that hasnt died yet. Once it drops below a critical mass threshold and there aren't enough people to sustain worthwhile posting then it'll wipe out too. This is why it is particularly important to welcome new people to post even if they aren't weather experts. Otherwise it just ends up as an echo chamber for a few posters for a little while before collapsing. You can at least put it off by getting a lot of newbs onsite wanting to learn.

This is hardly something unique to this board. Message boards in general have been dying for over a decade. People have moved on to social media. Eventually this place will dry up like the rest of them. Just enjoy it while it lasts.

My WeatherBug app shows 58F for the high in Huntingtown. It's about as accurate as anything else at this range so I'll go with that.

I went back and looked, he was actually referring to global anomalies on the CFS. I have no idea if he is correct but there is a lot of blue.

Yeah i agree. Haven't had a white Christmas in decades though I guess I expect it down here. At the very least I would like some cold weather so I can burn some of this firewood I got stacked all over. Can't complain about cold heading into January though. Lol but last time we had a cold January spell I managed to start my huge compost pile on fire during that wind storm and the flames must be been 30ft tall. I was legit afraid I'd burn the neighborhood down. Of course the hoses were frozen so all I had was my tiny kitchen fire extinguisher which quickly ran out. I used buckets of water and rakes after that....luckily got it under control. Next day I went on Amazon and bought three large fire extinguishers just in case....

In fairness to JB he was referring verbatim to the GEFS output, not what he thought was going to happen. I give JB a lot of shit (though I've been a paying member for years) but I can't think of anybody in the business who can pull historical analogs out of their ass better than him.