OKTWISTER

We have lacked one or more ingredients so far this spring in OK that have minimized potential. This looks quite promising especially six days out.

NWS Tulsa getting onboard for more snow on Sunday.

Arlene has been used.

You can not rule out a June Oklahoma event. Tomorrow marks the anniversary of the June 8, 1974 outbreak. Look at page two the graph very impressive event. https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-19740608

NWS Norman update on 2/26/23 event: https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-20230226

SPC Surface dewpoints will probably reach the lower-mid 60s in the Arklatex on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Model variability and greater confidence and a farther-west edge of low-level moisture/surface low placement in the southern Great Plains necessitated a shift of the severe probabilities west on Wednesday (day 5). Once model spread is reduced, a 30-percent severe area will likely be introduced.

north trend

Looks like the system slowed down a bit allowing for a bit more severe weather to the west in E. OK. NWS Tulsa upped their tornado warning chart.

https://www.wdsu.com/article/new-orleans-arabi-tornado-again/42247052

I agree as I do not think the fatality total will be anywhere near the high numbers on the list, I just wanted to point out the hyperbole being said without facts even being known.

Thoughts today from NWS TULSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 542 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 221 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 The forecast becomes increasingly complex as we move into Monday and especially during the Wednesday/Thursday time-frame. From the potential of severe storms Monday night into Tuesday morning to a wintry mess mid-week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to bubble up early Monday evening across southeast Oklahoma in advance of a cold front that is set to move through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. In addition to the lift provided by the frontal boundary, a weakening disturbance in the developing southwesterly flow aloft will provide additional lift. There will be adequate instability and shear for some of the storms to become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern. However, there is a low potential for a tornado if a storm can remain surface based in the vicinity of the cold front. The greatest potential for severe storms will be across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas Monday night into Tuesday morning. In addition to the potential for severe weather, locally heavy rain will also be possible with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches during this time. Again, the heaviest rain will likely fall across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. 1 to 2 inches of rain will be fairly common across this area with local amounts around 4 inches possible. This could lead to flooding of low lying areas. Have opted to not issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time. However, later shifts will monitor closely and issue a watch if necessary. The showers and storms are forecast to come to an end Tuesday morning as the cold front exits the region. Temperatures will be noticeably colder Tuesday and especially Tuesday night. Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the teens and twenties Tuesday night/Wednesday morning setting the stage for the potential of a wintry mess mid-week. With the cold air in place at the surface, at least two rounds of wintry weather are expected to sweep across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday into Thursday. The southwesterly flow aloft will help provide the isentropic lift for the first round of wintry precipitation beginning Wednesday morning and continuing into Wednesday night. The second round will run from Thursday morning into Thursday evening as as mid-level shortwave ejects out of the Southwest US and across the area. During both of these periods all modes of winter weather will be possible. However, it is looking more likely that a good portion of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will see more sleet and freezing rain than snow. Significant impacts from the sleet and ice are looking possible. Precipitation types and amounts will continue to be refined as the event draws closer. Stay tuned. After a dry yet chilly Friday, another chance of a wintry mix will come Saturday into Saturday night as a another mid-level shortwave sweeps across the area.

There is too much throwing out the word outbreak with limited data to back it up. Again today was not an outbreak by any means not even close. If the hype is all that is put out you will see people not believing it when the data really supports it. Remember part of the issue that was looked at after Joplin was the number of tornado warnings issued by NWS Springfield that were not backed up by what really was occuring. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/edwards/defpaper.pdf

This system was a bust for OK. Cold air was ahead of models and limited severe weather to the Red River area, one tornado warning in Stephens County. I had some freezing rain near Ralston OK. I found a pretty good area of freezing rain in Lenapah and then there was sleet and snow very light near South Coffeyville. No where did I find warning criteria weather. Winds suck....

Looks like a good chance for severe weather in OK/TX and points east next Wednesday and Thursday. Could be a Dixie outbreak. Still many change in the forecast expected but early indications are good for a multi day severe event. Oh and dare I forget the snow in W OK and KS with the storm all the way into N. Michigan. SPC Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave trough will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest into southern CA on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. This shortwave is then expected to eject eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains on D6/Wednesday before continuing northeastward across the Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley on D7/Thursday. Very strong mid-level flow will accompany the shortwave, with strong low-level flow anticipated throughout the warm sector ahead of the shortwave as well. This strong low-level flow will contribute to robust moisture advection, with upper 50s dewpoints into southern OK and low 60s dewpoints through much of central TX by early D6/Wednesday evening. This moisture advection will continue on D7/Thursday, with upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching into the middle OH Valley by D7/Thursday evening. The combination of lift, strong vertical shear, low-level moisture, and buoyancy will likely result in severe thunderstorms. Current guidance indicates the most probable location for severe storms on D6/Wednesday is from central TX northeastward across eastern OK, central/western AR, and northwest LA. For D7/Thursday, the severe risk extends from the Lower MS Valley through the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley. NWS TULSA DISC .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 Bottom line upfront: After a rather chilly weekend, expect warm and windy weather for the first half of the week. Fire weather concerns will be on the rise. Strong storm system arrives late Wednesday into Thursday, with widespread rainfall and thunderstorms expected. The average surface low track in the latest data suggests this system has a low probability of producing impactful wintry weather over our area at this point. Details will continue to be refined in the coming days. Digging shortwave trough over the central CONUS will force aforementioned cold front thru the region this afternoon and tonight. A few showers are possible ahead of the front as it moves thru far southeast Oklahoma, but the better chances will be over the ArkLaTex into early Saturday. Airmass behind this front will be arctic in nature, but the brunt of this misses us to north and east. Regardless, blended guidance (NBM) didn`t give it enough respect and was toward the warm edge of the spread. Went with the colder short term (CONSShort) guidance instead, with highs not getting out of the 30s in most places. A secondary shortwave trough dives southeast across the Midwest Saturday night into Sunday, with a reinforcing push of arctic air coming south down the center part of the country. The cold air will just glance us this time but will still keep highs in check for Sunday. Big pattern change comes next week, with deep cyclonic flow developing over the western CONUS. SW flow over the Plains downstream will induce lee troughing over the High Plains and a tight gradient over us. Strong southerly flow and an expanding low level thermal ridge will lead to a fast warmup thru Tuesday. Fire weather concerns ramp up, with the highest spread indices on Tuesday when winds will be strongest. Upper low diving down the West Coast early in the week will pivot around the base of the western CONUS trough and eject into the Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread showers and storms in the warm conveyor ahead of advancing system will overspread the region Wednesday night, exiting Thursday morning. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible. As far as severe weather potential is concerned, sufficient deep layer shear will not be a question, especially in the basal portion of a negative tilt shortwave trough. Instability will be the main question. A significant frontal intrusion into the Gulf basin by this weekend`s system suggests that appreciable moisture may not arrive in time. Future forecasts will refine this in the coming days. Regardless, potential for thunder still appears larger than what the NBM suggests, and have nudged those probs upward. Colder air will push into the region on Thursday as the surface low passes by. The main question at this point will be the track of the surface low, which has big implications regarding our winter weather potential. The latest deterministic GFS tracks the surface low just to our north, keeping the wrap-around heavy snow band to our north over Kansas. The latest ECMWF is a bit farther south with these features, grazing NE OK with the snow band. We are still several days out, and the details will continue to adjust as we get closer. For now, will not go full boar with winter weather potential, inserting low potential for snow and light accums. Just too early to tell if this system will bring winter weather impacts. Lacy

Here we go NWS TULSA: Public Information Statement National Weather Service Tulsa OK 238 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon 3 ENE Rogers 9.0 in 0202 PM 02/03 36.34N/94.06W 3 NNW Bella Vista 9.0 in 1044 AM 02/03 36.48N/94.25W 1 NNW Rogers 7.5 in 1215 PM 02/03 36.35N/94.12W Holiday Island 1.3 SSW 7.2 in 0700 AM 02/03 36.47N/93.74W 3 N Aurora 7.0 in 0206 PM 02/03 36.03N/93.70W 1 S Garfield 7.0 in 0110 PM 02/03 36.44N/93.97W Lowell 7.0 in 1250 PM 02/03 36.26N/94.14W Hectorville 7.0 in 0744 AM 02/03 35.85N/95.92W Springdale 6.5 in 0116 PM 02/03 36.19N/94.13W 1 SE Shady Grove 6.5 in 1215 PM 02/03 36.13N/94.13W Rogers 6.5 in 1000 AM 02/03 36.33N/94.13W Siloam Springs 1.8 N 6.5 in 0930 AM 02/03 36.21N/94.55W Centerton 6.2 in 1115 AM 02/03 36.36N/94.29W 3 ENE Jenks 6.2 in 0738 AM 02/03 36.03N/95.92W Ochelata 5.6 N 6.2 in 0700 AM 02/03 36.68N/95.99W Huntsville 6.0 in 1246 PM 02/03 36.09N/93.74W 2 SE Wheeler 6.0 in 1159 AM 02/03 36.09N/94.23W 6 W Claremore 6.0 in 0932 AM 02/03 36.32N/95.73W Stilwell 6.0 in 0920 AM 02/03 35.82N/94.63W Bentonville 6.0 in 0904 AM 02/03 36.37N/94.21W 4 SSE Jenks 6.0 in 0748 AM 02/03 35.97N/95.94W Eureka Springs 6.0 in 0748 AM 02/03 36.40N/93.75W Pea Ridge 0.2 WSW 5.8 in 0800 AM 02/03 36.45N/94.12W 3 SSE Sperry 5.6 in 0810 AM 02/03 36.26N/95.97W 2 W Fayetteville 5.5 in 0109 PM 02/03 36.06N/94.19W Cleveland 5.5 in 0940 AM 02/03 36.31N/96.46W Bartlesville 5.5 in 0930 AM 02/03 36.75N/95.98W Eureka Springs 3.5 SW 5.5 in 0800 AM 02/03 36.37N/93.79W 6 NW Verdigris 5.5 in 0700 AM 02/03 36.30N/95.75W Sand Springs 2.7 S 5.5 in 0700 AM 02/03 36.10N/96.13W Claremore 7.5 W 5.5 in 0700 AM 02/03 36.30N/95.75W 3 E Owasso 5.1 in 1252 PM 02/03 36.27N/95.81W Jay 3.3 NNE 5.1 in 0800 AM 02/03 36.47N/94.78W 3 S Collinsville 5.0 in 1158 AM 02/03 36.32N/95.85W 5 N Bixby 5.0 in 1140 AM 02/03 36.01N/95.87W 1 NNW Hindsville 5.0 in 1100 AM 02/03 36.16N/93.87W 5 NE Hiwasse 5.0 in 1049 AM 02/03 36.49N/94.28W 2 WSW Centerton 5.0 in 1047 AM 02/03 36.35N/94.32W 4 NE Tahlequah 5.0 in 0945 AM 02/03 35.96N/94.92W 4 SSE Tulsa 5.0 in 0931 AM 02/03 36.07N/95.90W Pryor 5.0 in 0920 AM 02/03 36.31N/95.32W 2 NW Springdale 5.0 in 0920 AM 02/03 36.20N/94.15W Hominy 5.0 in 0920 AM 02/03 36.42N/96.39W Westville 5.0 in 0915 AM 02/03 35.99N/94.57W Fayetteville 5.0 in 0845 AM 02/03 36.06N/94.16W 1 SW Farmington 5.0 in 0817 AM 02/03 36.03N/94.27W 1 SW Bentonville 5.0 in 0815 AM 02/03 36.37N/94.22W 5 N Maysville 5.0 in 0749 AM 02/03 36.48N/94.61W Wyandotte 5.0 in 0715 AM 02/03 36.80N/94.73W Rogers 2.4 SSW 5.0 in 0700 AM 02/03 36.30N/94.14W 1 ENE Prairie Grove 4.5 in 1042 AM 02/03 35.98N/94.30W Tahlequah 4.5 in 0930 AM 02/03 35.92N/94.97W Tulsa 1.5 WNW 4.5 in 0800 AM 02/03 36.13N/95.94W 5 E Jenks 4.5 in 0747 AM 02/03 36.02N/95.89W Eureka Springs 4.5 in 0729 AM 02/03 36.39N/93.74W 3 E Sapulpa 4.4 in 0938 AM 02/03 36.00N/96.07W Owasso 4.6 ENE 4.2 in 0804 AM 02/03 36.30N/95.76W 1 SW Schulter 4.1 in 0959 AM 02/03 35.51N/95.96W 2 SE Cleora 4.0 in 1204 PM 02/03 36.55N/94.95W 4 W Broken Arrow 4.0 in 1120 AM 02/03 36.05N/95.87W 1 SE Okmulgee 4.0 in 1030 AM 02/03 35.62N/95.95W Bristow 4.0 in 0950 AM 02/03 35.83N/96.39W Colcord 4.0 in 0940 AM 02/03 36.27N/94.69W Vinita 4.0 in 0920 AM 02/03 36.64N/95.15W Vian 4.0 in 0846 AM 02/03 35.50N/94.97W Rogers 4.0 in 0845 AM 02/03 36.33N/94.12W Huntsville 4.0 in 0812 AM 02/03 36.09N/93.74W Drumright 0.6 SW 4.0 in 0730 AM 02/03 35.98N/96.61W 4 S Broken Arrow 3.8 in 0802 AM 02/03 36.00N/95.79W Tulsa 8.4 ESE 3.8 in 0800 AM 02/03 36.10N/95.77W 3 W Broken Arrow 3.5 in 1048 AM 02/03 36.05N/95.85W Mcalester 3.5 in 0950 AM 02/03 34.94N/95.77W 3 N Sallisaw 3.0 in 0201 PM 02/03 35.51N/94.79W Checotah 3.0 in 0143 PM 02/03 35.48N/95.52W 5 SSE Tulsa 3.0 in 1158 AM 02/03 36.07N/95.89W 2 E Muskogee 3.0 in 1025 AM 02/03 35.75N/95.33W 2.9 S Kingston 3.0 in 1009 AM 02/03 36.01N/93.52W 4 NE Okesa 3.0 in 0920 AM 02/03 36.75N/96.07W 1 S Eureka Springs 3.0 in 0716 AM 02/03 36.38N/93.74W Metalton 3.5 W 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/03 36.23N/93.59W 5 SE Kingston 2.5 in 0141 PM 02/03 36.01N/93.45W Gore 2.0 in 0940 AM 02/03 35.53N/95.11W Muskogee 2.0 in 0940 AM 02/03 35.75N/95.37W Stigler 2.0 in 0920 AM 02/03 35.26N/95.12W Ketchum 2.0 in 0757 AM 02/03 36.52N/95.03W Pryor 2.2 SE 2.0 in 0700 AM 02/03 36.27N/95.30W 1 NE Van Buren 1.5 in 0150 PM 02/03 35.45N/94.33W Sallisaw 1.0 SE 1.3 in 0800 AM 02/03 35.45N/94.80W Sallisaw 1.0 in 0846 AM 02/03 35.46N/94.78W Uniontown 2.1 ESE 1.0 in 0700 AM 02/03 35.57N/94.41W 5 SE Kingston 0.5 in 0826 AM 02/03 36.01N/93.45W Antlers 6.3 SE 0.5 in 0800 AM 02/03 34.16N/95.54W ...SLEET REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon Talihina 1.0 in 0840 AM 02/03 34.75N/95.05W 5 SE Kingston 1.0 in 0825 AM 02/03 36.01N/93.45W Finley 1.0 in 0809 AM 02/03 34.33N/95.49W Soper 0.8 in 0819 AM 02/03 34.03N/95.70W Wilburton 0.5 in 0953 AM 02/03 34.92N/95.31W Rattan 0.5 in 0827 AM 02/03 34.20N/95.41W 2 SE Cleora 0.3 in 1205 PM 02/03 36.55N/94.95W ...FREEZING RAIN REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon Mulberry 0.50 in 0930 AM 02/03 35.50N/94.05W Talihina 0.50 in 0838 AM 02/03 34.75N/95.05W Honobia 0.38 in 1045 AM 02/03 34.54N/94.94W Hugo 0.25 in 0820 AM 02/03 34.01N/95.52W Soper 0.25 in 0818 AM 02/03 34.03N/95.70W Finley 0.25 in 0809 AM 02/03 34.33N/95.49W Rattan 0.10 in 0827 AM 02/03 34.20N/95.41W Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official

I have heavy snow in Morris on Hwy 62, going east I hit heavy sleet near the Okmulgee/Muskogee county line. Doubled back found the nose of sleet had pushed north and had sleet and snow mix until reaching Morris again.

So round 1, left Owasso about 0430 it was 35 degrees and drizzle. North on Hwy 75 hit ice on road about the Walmart distribution Center south of Bartlesville and continued with icy roads from sleet and freezing rain/drizzle. Hit Caney KS and was in heavy snow estimated the band at 2 inch per hour with visibility to about 50 yards or less with blowing drifting snow winds about 20-25 mph temp down to 20 degrees. South on Hwy 169 hit some ice on trees and roadway South of South Coffeyville. Roads became glaze of ice from Nowata to Oolagah with vehicles sliding off road including a pickup overturned S. of Talala. Home temp 25 back out later.............

I also think the cold air will be a bit ahead of schedule it looks to be entering the NW part of OK now. http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/metar/maps/realtime/latest.tair.png

I still think 10-12 is possible up in the NE corner of OK.

With light weight snow there will be blowing and drifting for sure.

I think the sleet will be well south of I 44 now and that heavy snow event looks to be legit with the moisture and ratios in play.

The magic I 44 line will be deciding once again. I am thinking a good sleet event in Tulsa metro with a great layer of ice for the snow to fall on allowing us to suffer with the cold for several days.

That is a lot of debris

Cams down now