OKTWISTER

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 13 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Arkansas Southwest Kentucky Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the watch area through the afternoon and evening hours - with a few intense thunderstorms expected. Damaging winds are the most likely threat, but large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible from the most organized storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Hot Springs AR to 15 miles east northeast of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

So I came across some analogs for the first couple of weeks of March. I still think we will have a event in the middle part of March this year. Past events show that we could see a strong event and we are seeing some good moisture return to the SE from the Gulf of Mexico and if we can get the return with a dynamic system we could see some early spring magic.

We may have been the Oklahoma Arctic the last two weeks but give it a week and it will be severe season. I was reading this attached spring outlook and realized that if we do have an active season it could kick off very soon. CPC looks warmer and somewhat moist in the next couple of weeks so we could see a early March event start to show up. If we rock like the end of the La Nina in 2011 we could be very busy. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range/spring-2021-first-weather-forecast-la-nina-usa-europe-fa/

Tulsa's temperature has been trending up the last few hours. Also NWS Tulsa does not have snow on their decision page at all for this week. Just some daily freezing drizzle and the arctic air timeline seems to be getting pushed back every day. I am starting to wonder how far the cold air will actually get to the south. A good snow storm with the cold is not looking too promising right now. ...PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING... Hazard Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat FIRE DANGER ICE WINDCHILL VISIBILITY

StormChazer wake up it is snowing in Collinsville...............

I am up in Skiatook and have ice in the trees at the Walmart and winds gusting to 35 mph

At 2353 on KOTV 6 you can see the icing I have at this point.

Finally have a 32 degree zone on the west side of Tulsa Metro. I am on Hwy 97 between Sapulpa and Sand Springs and have icing occurring on trees., Also reading the above I have not seen any sleet and have been on the road since 2030 hours.

Because you are in Collinsville I expect rain from Owasso to Collinsville and 3-6 inches of snow in Bixby........

I agree and we know the line will be much different than the advisory area.

NWS Tulsa holding strong on little freezing precipitation in the Tulsa Metro proper. However the Winter Storm Warning was moved east and Osage and Pawnee counties added and Washington, Nowata and Craig counties added for Winter Weather Advisory.

Looking like mostly rain for Tulsa unless the system is more SE

First Tornado Watch issued: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 740 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of The upper Texas coastal plain Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 740 AM until 300 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the morning while spreading inland across the upper Texas coast. The storm environment will gradually become more favorable for supercells inland, with an attendant threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds through early to mid afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Angleton TX to 20 miles north northeast of Port Arthur TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 21035.

That sounds like We really do not know what the system is going to do and tomorrow could be totally different....

Looks like CPC is not sold on that cold air at this time.

So if Eta makes landfall on the south as a tropical storm and later hits further north as a hurricane does that count as two separate landfalls for records or is it still considered one landfalling storm?

I am going 932 mb and 155 mph

Has anyone used the SiOnyx Aurora video camera to shoot storms at night? If so how did it turn out. https://www.sionyx.com/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwn7j2BRDrARIsAHJkxmzx15NjbjWSou6kUmx7Loac5RlV4u2_TkoBB9eaR1QZfmCkqjv0wuoaAn9dEALw_wcB

Small set up for tomorrow in NE OK and SW Mo to NW AR, currently we have a cold front draped across NE OK that is forecast to move back north. Dew points have been high today just muggy outside. Wind and hail are the main threat but NWS Tulsa and SPC mention tornadoes and Day 2 is up to 5% area. Could be a sleeper day and I would not be surprised to see a upgrade to Enhanced tomorrow.