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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    Hoping that stuff SE of Richmond keeps a more northerly path. ~0.90 total event so far.
  2. MN Transplant
    General reminder that inland TC tornadoes are highly diurnal
  3. MN Transplant
    0.71”. This has been a fine August so far. Just wish it wasn’t coming off a dreadful Jun/Jul. I’d prefer the 5” that the RGEM gives me the rest of the way, rather than the <1” on the HRRR and NAM.
  4. MN Transplant
    Airports so far BWI: 0.20” DCA: T IAD: zilch
  5. MN Transplant
    Still, brutal cutoff. Verbatim, less than 0.5” at DCA.
  6. MN Transplant
    Mwahahaha. I will take my tiny cell.
  7. MN Transplant
    I think a lot of us E of 81 are going to be looking at the pre-game action today and tomorrow. The HRRR is really aggressive on that, with the NAM less widespread but still with heavy pockets.
  8. MN Transplant
    Yeah, but the HAFS look even worse, so I’m trying to ignore them.
  9. MN Transplant
    I’m not on the doom train yet, but I think we have to be realistic that on the east side of the circulation there will be training cells that put some in the winner’s category and leave others with a more moderate result.
  10. MN Transplant
    You beat me
  11. MN Transplant
    Yeah, that was cool
  12. MN Transplant
    18z NAM Nest says I get more rain in 6 hours from 00z to 06z Friday (~2.5") than the 18z GFS run through Saturday (<2").
  13. MN Transplant
    Another 95 at home, making it the 23rd occurrence of 2024.
  14. MN Transplant
    It is thick out there this morning. DPs in the mid-70s. Gross.
  15. MN Transplant
    Sitting at 3.10" for the summer. I could get 5" of rain this week and still be at the lowest summer-to-date total in my 10 years of CoCoRahs obs.
  16. MN Transplant
    The broad brush of the models is similar. Misses the Tues/Wed shallow trough and meanders near the GA/SC coast and then interacts with the second trough later in the week which pulls it north. How exactly it interacts with the second trough and how deep the trough digs affects our chances for heavy rain. The Euro is risky because it is a very shallow trough that shunts the storm off before it is able to climb too much. Obviously the ICON is on the opposite side.
  17. MN Transplant
    There has been little indication of a hit up here, so that it probably not worth being hyped about. What we really want is for the tropical moisture to get banked up against a front.
  18. MN Transplant
    Looks like you are getting a bonus cell this evening. Much better coverage overall than most days this summer.
  19. MN Transplant
    Going to end up around 0.70”, which will be the highest daily report since early April
  20. MN Transplant
    Very impressed with the outflow. The winds are loud in the trees. Radar is optimistic with the storms firing from Fairfax to Manassas.
  21. MN Transplant
    Side note, Leeds Manor is one of the best drives in the state.
  22. MN Transplant
    No joke
  23. MN Transplant
    Some upper 70s pixels on the Sterling velocity scan as it crosses 50 between Middleburg and Aldie.
  24. MN Transplant
    Yeah, that one has some nasty velocities on radar.
  25. MN Transplant
    2.45" summer-to-date
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