MN Transplant

0.29", which is fine since we are doing well so far this year.

I wondered about the local businesses too. I think it was the gas stations (especially the ones with food) and hotels that really profited.

Adding to this, while the extra length is nice, you don’t have to be center line to enjoy totality.

The red spot was a really interesting part of the experience. Evidently we did see a prominence. In my view it was at about 7 o’clock on the sun’s ring. https://x.com/forecaster25/status/1777434179136819497?s=46&t=bA1Os5w_10i9PfsurY28aw

That was awesome

Made it to Malone, NY. Milky skies, but better than I expected last night. Curious how much corona I’ll get to see.

The upper level cirrus isn’t bad at all in Syracuse. We might try to outrun the mid level deck.

In Syracuse but it definitely is looking cloudy all over NY. If it were just me, I’d take the chance and try to swoop over to northern VT/NH, but I’m not going to put my family though that!

And then the 3km NAM comes in a with a perfectly acceptable solution.

I don't want this to influence anyone's plans, but I am getting increasingly pessimistic about NY. As you step down in heights on the 12z euro, you see a gradual lowering of the cloud deck, such that any one spot is likely to be cloudy. I'm still headed up there, but tempering my expectations.

12z NAM nest wants to keep the rain together as it enters NY

Looking at the GFS is bad for my mental health

The sunshine duration on the Euro seemed optimistic, but I'm good with that.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Choose "All" under Parameter Selection and go down to Clouds. Select Ohio under Change Map Selection.

Ok, here's the 12z Euro for NY. Yellow is good, dark is bad. First up, no low clouds as we've been talking about. Splotchy mid-level clouds, and then an exiting deck of high-level clouds.

Not bad, verbatim. The algorithm says few clouds. Also looks good on the NAM.

Better GFS run for NY.

And we got one! Here's the big difference between the NAM and GFS. You can see the saturated layer from 250 to 350mb on the GFS sounding, which is our upper-level clouds. On the NAM, not so much. (edit - for the Watertown/Syracuse area)

The OP GFS was trending well until 12z

Yeah, finding somewhere with bathroom access is key

I’ve locked in NY, so now it is all about avoiding that leaf of citrus that will develop. I’m sure the roads between Syracuse/Watertown/Rochester will be easy to navigate on Monday

I want severe graupel! .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry conditions have returned to the area early this morning, with some patchy dense fog developing in a few river valleys. Cloud cover increases this morning as a deep low pressure over the OH Valley moves east and over the area today into tonight. This is going to produce scattered to widespread showers, with isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. Given cold temps aloft, strong forcing for ascent, and steep mid-level lapse rates it is likely that the stronger convection produces graupel. Most of it should remain small, though it could accumulate in any heavy showers/storm. While it is not likely, cannot rule out that graupel reaches the size where a Severe Thunderstorm Warning could be needed. Highs today reach the 50s, and the upper 30s to 40s in the mountains.

Wonder if we’ll get some little hailers tomorrow with the upper low passing over. NAM has quite impressive mid-level lapse rates. edit - I see High Risk already mentioned this over in the severe thread

About an inch over the three days. Pretty boring.

Yeah, not great