MN Transplant

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

@MN Transplantgoing to be a long week and day on Sunday. I can honestly see this game being 52-49...how crazy would that be for the NFL. The last time i had any feeling like this was 98 I swear if Will Reichard is turning into Gary Anderson I'm burning down Jays Wintry Mix FB page. #skol vikes

I still have faith in Reichard.  The quad injury definitely messed with his rhythm though.

Gonna have to pile up points against Detroit’s injured D.

Vikings/Lions for the #1 seed in Week 18.  Unreal.

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

So you’re saying we need to thread the needle where we get plowable snow on the 6th and the HECS 3 days later?

Snow on snow otherwise we riot

That 00z Euro run was wild.  Over an inch of QPF falling into a deep cold airmass where the surface temps stay <15 degrees during the day.

9 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

50s now in DC.

Already the 5th warmest day in December at home.  55.0

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@MN Transplant we’ll take pictures for you

 

I’m still mad about Jan 2011

Got clipped by both primary batches.  Bet it is coming down well out by Manassas.

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Sleet.  28.2

Turned to ZR after a few minutes

Sleet.  28.2

56 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the Europeans are going to make the rest of the NWP community eat dust shortly:

 

 

I'm still skeptical about many of these pure AI models, and the paper itself isn't a slam dunk, but I did notice something else interesting in there:

Historically, t2m has proved extremely challenging to assimilate in a global physics-based weather model, with the ECMWF starting operational assimilation of t2m observations only in November 2024 (Ingleby et al., 2024). This led to significant improvements in short-range t2m forecasts. 

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

WWA is up

Departing.  Mongolia air masses are different.  This high is not moving off mid Atlantic, more like off Boston . This isn’t a 1994 set up which gave us freezing with no snow at 22F.  Look for a surprise when the precip starts 

 

The biggest “problem” is that there just isn’t much precip with this.  Meso models are in the few hundredths range.  If we were looking at a big shield of precip coming in I’d agree with you.  But it is very likely just some pingers and/or light ZR for a bit.

16.3.  Good call by the NWS from a few days out to go colder than most guidance.

15 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

13-2 #skol vikes!

Truly amazing.  Now the Packers and Lions to close the season.

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, would much rather have a series of light to moderate events that doesn't wash the blocking away, in lieu of one big hit that melts off in 3 days.

Eh, I like big dog hunting.  I've already completely forgotten about the light/moderate events that happened less than a year ago.

57 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The temp gradient between the northern third of this sub, the middle third, and the southern third must have been substantial. Lots of lows in the teens just to the north and mostly 20s down here.

I was wondering about that too, and it seemed to be more NW/SE oriented.  Probably a combination of a normal temperature gradient and a bit of cloudiness over northern VA.

7 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

27.5 at midnight. I got text from friend who surprised me with bullishness for Tuesday . Anything showing?

 

Mesoscale models have a light band of precip coming through in the morning.  Surface is residually cold, but the column is a little too warm.  So, more of a mix.  If it is delayed at all the surface will warm and it'll just be cold rain on the 24th.

23.4, didn’t fall much after midnight.

9 hours ago, nj2va said:

Indiana had no business being in the CFP.  Bama, South Carolina, and others would have been more deserving.

IU barely played any good teams.

Can't lose three games, not win your conference, and expect to get into the playoffs.

4 hours ago, yoda said:

Guess we'll see

Zone Forecast Product
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
332 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

DCZ001-211200-
District of Columbia-
Including the city of Washington
332 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

.REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of flurries.
Lows around 30. Northwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to
20 mph.
.TODAY...Sunny. A chance of flurries and sprinkles in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 19. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph, becoming north around 5 mph after midnight.
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds around
5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Cold with lows around 14. Northeast
winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable.
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.

I don't see any guidance that is this cold, but sure enough it is in the AFD too:  

Sunday night brings
lows in the single digits to lower teens for most.

50 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

The temp today at DCA has fluctuated just one degree (high of 40, low of 39)

You jinxed it.  Down to 38.

Mood snow at 35.8

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

AMS week in New Orleans, so that tracks.

23 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

we were actually in Baltimore during that 1994 cold outbreak.  It basically never got above zero on the drive there from VA - Staunton had a low near -20F that morning.  The Inner Harbor was frozen solid lol.

They still had the old wind chill scale back then and the numbers were insane back home in Minnesota.  -60, -70, -80.  We were out of school for a few days and I remember just sitting and watching tv coverage of the Northridge earthquake.

Amazing, DCA tied a record high today.  65

11 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

If you had told me before the season our Vikings would be 12-2 at this point i would have said of course they will be! It's never pretty or easy winning division games but what i love is even though it was mostly ugly when you look up its 30-12. No hate here...on to a big final 3 game push for something bigger than just making the playoffs #SKOL Vikes!

A sloppy game last night but it never felt like we were in trouble.  Amazing season.