MN Transplant
-
Posts
16,371 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Posts posted by MN Transplant
-
-
11 hours ago, Roger Smith said:
Two of the four contest locations edged up by 1F today (so I read on NWS) ... IAD 99F and BWI 98F ... here are the updated contest standings:
Current standings as of September 3, 2023
Table is now in scoring order. Errors underlined are the few that are forecasts already passed by actual maxima so far (IAD only to date).
__ Max values to date ____________ 97 __ 99 __ 98 __ 98
The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier.
This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer.
(table adjusted Sep 3 for IAD 99 and BWI 98)
(Note: errors underlined are subject to future increases as the forecasts are already below outcomes _ applies to IAD only so far)
FORECASTER (order of entry) __ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC _____ Errors ____Total __ Rank __ qualifier (what separates tied totals)
LittleVillageWx (10) ______________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ______ 1 2 0 0 ____ 3 ____ 1
MN Transplant ( 5 ) ______________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 1 0 2 1 ____ 4 ____ 2 __ earlier entry (of 4 total scores)
A lot of the entries are still in play. Stupid BWI pavement stopped working.
-
1
-
1
-
-
I was tracking IAD for a while earlier today but fell off the pace. Only 94.
-
93.4 is the high so far here.
-
These differences are just wild for Monday afternoon. The NAM seems way too humid at the low levels, but the GFS mixing depth is, uh, let's go with aggressive.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Terpeast said:
Looks like my analysis supports this.
Yeah. This is a brutal image. The +2 period is basically ending in 2040, +3 in 2060, and +4 in 2080.
Projected changes to mean annual snowfall (%) at Toronto, Ontario (a); Montréal, Québec (b); Halifax, Nova Scotia (c); Boston, Massachusetts (d); New York City, New York (e); and Washington, D.C. (f) for the three global warming levels. Relative changes with respect to the 1980–2009 mean are plotted for each CRCM5 simulation (symbols indicated in the legend). A kernel density estimation of the distribution of projected changes among the CRCM5-ClimEx simulations is shaded in the gray violin plots generated using the Seaborn package (Waskom, 2021). Within each violin plot, a smaller box plot is included indicating the median (white dot), 25th–75th percentile (dark gray box) and complete range of the CRCM5-ClimEx data (dark gray vertical lines). Values calculated from the pooled data for all 50 ClimEx members are indicated by the purple circles. Signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) calculated from the ClimEx data is indicated under each violin plot.
-
2
-
2
-
-
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023JD038804
Plain Language Summary
Snowstorms affect the highly populated regions of the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada every winter, disrupting ground and air travel and resulting in substantial socioeconomic impacts. Understanding how climate change may impact snowstorms is necessary for this region to prepare for the future. We explore how snowstorms in these regions may change in a future, warmer world using two sets of climate model simulations. We find that yearly total snowfall is likely to decrease over most of this region, with the largest declines to the south and smaller declines farther north. Despite these decreases, we find that the snowfall amounts that currently occur during the largest snowstorms are still likely to occur even in a much warmer future climate. Finally, we examine snowstorms that produce a large percentage of the annual snowfall during a single event. We find that the region where these big snowstorms relative to the yearly snowfall occur most often will shift northward in the future. In summary, while yearly snowfall is likely to decrease nearly everywhere in eastern North America, significant snowstorms will continue to occur, and some regions will see more of their yearly snowfall during a few large events.
-
3
-
1
-
-
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/6/JCLI-D-20-0197.1.xml
5. Summary and discussion
This study investigates effects of global warming on extreme snowstorms along the NEUS coast by conducting and comparing dynamical-downscaling WRF simulations driven with and without the mean climate change signal extracted from HiRAM historical and future simulations. The 93 observed snowstorms in 1980–2015 documented in G. Chen et al. (2019) were adopted as surrogates for studying the potential effects. Results show that the number of events with moderate and heavy daily snowfall (SWE greater than 10 mm day−1) at Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. is decreased from 60, 54, 43, and 30 to 32, 29, 30, and 20, respectively (Fig. 7). In addition, although the rainfall increases in all four cities, total precipitation increases in the south (especially along the coast), where the rainfall is increased due to the warming-caused increase of water vapor content and upward vertical motion, but decreases in the north (especially along the coast), where the rainfall increase is overwhelmed by the snow decrease (Figs. 5–7). As a result, the precipitation distribution exhibits a southwestward shift. Another notable effect is that the frequency of mixed rain and snow and freezing precipitation events is increased in the north of NEUS (Figs. 8 and 9), attributed to the northward retreat of the 0°C zone and the expansion of the zone with temperature near 0°C.
-
2
-
1
-
-
23 minutes ago, George BM said:
Take this for what it's worth, which may not be much, but IAD may have managed to sneak in a 90F today.
Forecast high for today was 84F...
No I'm not trying to imply that IAD will may 104F on Tuesday... They won't.
They'll probably at least get into the upper half of the 90s... as forecasted anyway.
Yeah, IAD 90 after a low of 54 today! So, IAD hit 90 in September and still had a negative daily departure. BWI 87, DCA 85.
-
1
-
-
20 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:
We be cookin.
The GFS is broken. The NAM's 95ish makes more sense.
-
59 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:
Rough
It has never hit 100 at Dulles in September.
-
A truly remarkable W-E gradient in precipitation this meteorological summer.
-
4
-
1
-
-
Euro with more realistic mid-90s now for next week.
-
3
-
-
Curious about how Valdosta will fare. 65 miles from the coast, which at 15mph is 4-5 hours after landfall.
-
11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:
If you look at the HAFS-B from 06z, which seems to be about the west most model, it swings out from 85W to 85.5W before coming back east. It’ll be interesting to see if we get a westerly component as the day goes on.
With visualization of the HAFS-B location this evening. I’m skeptical it gets that far west.
-
2
-
-
6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:
Not sure I am seeing things right, but it seems we had a little more North Northwestward jog based on satellite images. Anyone else see this? It is not too significant, but could have some implications!
If you look at the HAFS-B from 06z, which seems to be about the west most model, it swings out from 85W to 85.5W before coming back east. It’ll be interesting to see if we get a westerly component as the day goes on.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:
This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Chiefland, FL, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends.
As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok.
Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview...
How far would you consider going west? I could imagine Perry even being in play.
-
Just now, Round Hill WX said:
If landfall occurs in the Big Bend it would be best case scenario. There is very little population density or infrastructure. Tampa likely dodging it again....
Fully agree.
-
3
-
-
I’m mobile so I’m not sure I’m getting this right, but I’m seeing very few major hurricane landfalls in the Big Bend area, and really from Appalachicola to Tampa.
-
3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:
I mean come on.
It went completely off the deep end maybe 1-2 months ago. There was some discussion about the land surface being a problem, but it looked like it was only in the long range. It wasn’t. My hometown has an all-time high of 107 and it was trying to pump out like 110-113 from a few days out. The reality was 100.
-
4
-
-
20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
This happens after almost every big storm I can remember. Some might have a handful of cold days before the warm up…but invariably it warms, whether it’s the day after or 5 days, and everyone acts shocked how fast the snow melts. But fact is 20” will get obliterated FAST as soon as dews gets above 40 and that happens here regularly so it’s almost impossible for the DC area to get snowcover to last long no matter how big the storm.
Periods of 5+ days with at least 6" of snow on the ground at DCA (modern era)
- 1958 (Feb 16-20, max 14")
- 1961 (Jan 27-31, Max 9"), (Feb 9-14, Max 10") - 17 of 25 days in this stretch
- 1966 (Jan 30-Feb 3, Max 16")
- 1979 (Feb 13-Feb 23, Max 22")
- 1982 (Jan 21-29, Max 10")
- 1983 (Feb 12-16, Max 6") - Highs in the 50s the last two days
- 1987 (Jan 23-Feb 2, Max 18")
- 1996 (Jan 7-17, Max 20")
- 2003 (Feb 16-22, Max 16")
- 2009 (Dec 19-25, Max 16")
- 2010 (Feb 6-20, Max 18")
-
8
-
3
-
Nice 0.74" to break a short dry spell of just over a week.
-
1
-
-
17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:
Severe warned storm headed towards the DC metro.
-
11
-
-
Severe warned storm headed towards the DC metro.
-
I don’t post in the long range thread because I don’t follow this stuff as closely as you all do, but I have to say that while the globe is clearly warming and things are changing, we are less than 10 years removed from a couple of really cold and pretty snowy winters. Hell, we almost put up a -10 for the month of February 2015. The climate is changing but all is not lost.
-
8
-
September Discobs 2023
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Topped my high from yesterday. 94.5 and gross.