MN Transplant

44 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

This arguably was a February 1978 redo. That's prolly already been noted, but whatever. I'm ready for thunderstorm season. The screwjobs are more idiosyncratic and less deflating.

And we'll be the ones dragging down the NESIS (or equivalent) scale again.

• 12/5 - 1.9"
• 12/14 - 1.3"
• 1/26 - 8.5"
• 2/6 - 0.2"
• 2/22 - 3.6

Total - 15.5"

3.6” total, sticking to everything.

0.89” precip, 0.55” after the final changeover to snow which means ratios were even worse than we were worried about.

Still 33/34 at DCA.  Wonder if they’ll report much of anything.

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

What’s funny is that it’s still coming down pretty good here, but it’s melting almost as fast as it’s falling because it’s 33 degrees.

Surprised you are still that warm.  I’m 31.1.  Do have to say, this is still low ratio stuff.

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What do you think about 7” more?

Sounds like fun.  I’m in.

1.25” so far.  Looks nice.

31.6 and moderate to heavy snow.  Looking good.

32.7.  Just starting to stick on mulch and elevated surfaces.

Temp seems to have turned over.  Down to 34.5 and wet snowflakes.

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Inching closer to being inside the beltway, bring it

We were all joking about DCA reporting a low total, now watch them get plastered.

18z HRRR, 6hr precip 5pm-11pm

18z HRRR has the inverted trough axis fractionally east.  I clearly approve of the location.

35.6.  0.25" precip on the day.  Got my hockey high this morning, now the doldrums until the snow starts this evening.

Gold!  USA!

Just now, Herb@MAWS said:

Suggestion: when giving obs please say where you are located at, rather than saying “here” or “IMBY”.  
 

Following along on iPhone, I don’t see anyone’s locations by their names — if there’s a setting I need to change someone please tell me — thanks

The locations show if you go sideways to landscape mode.

1 minute ago, bncho said:

yellows are probably mixing with snow

Yeah, that’s exactly what’s happening.  Rates temporarily win but it is still way too warm overall.

34.9

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Question is does it just sort of flip from N/W to S/E and then stay all snow (even if non-accumulating for awhile), or does it pulse back and forth and be rate dependent during the middle of the day before a flip to snow for good mid-late afternoon?

Looks like the latter.  Got some snowflakes in that heavier band, but back to rain now.

I have partially melted snowflake mixing in at 36.0 degrees

I certainly like the placement of the inverted trough on the models.  But, I think anyone rooting for the 3km NAM early changeover outside of the favored areas is wishcasting.

12z sounding from Dulles.

72403 IAD Sterling Observations at 12Z 22 Feb 2026
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
   PRES   HGHT   TEMP   DWPT   RELH   MIXR   DRCT   SKNT   THTA   THTE   THTV
    hPa     m      C      C      %    g/kg    deg   knot     K      K      K 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1005.0     93    3.4    1.9     90   4.39    330      5  276.2  288.3  276.9
 1000.0    130    4.2    0.3     76   3.93     65      3  277.4  288.3  278.0
  999.0    138    4.2    0.2     75   3.90     67      3  277.4  288.3  278.1
  956.0    493    1.5   -0.6     86   3.85    140     10  278.2  289.0  278.9
  938.0    646    0.3   -0.9     91   3.82    130     11  278.6  289.3  279.2
  925.0    759   -0.5   -1.2     95   3.80    150     11  278.8  289.5  279.4
  923.0    776   -0.7   -1.4     95   3.76    150     12  278.8  289.3  279.4
  910.0    889   -1.3   -1.9     95   3.67    120     14  279.3  289.7  279.9
  884.0   1120   -2.5   -3.0     96   3.49    130     10  280.4  290.4  281.0
  883.0   1129   -2.5   -3.0     96   3.49    133     10  280.4  290.4  281.0
  874.0   1211   -1.9   -2.2     98   3.74    156     10  281.9  292.6  282.5
  859.0   1348   -2.8   -2.9     99   3.62    195     11  282.4  292.7  283.0
  850.0   1432   -3.3   -3.3    100   3.54    215      8  282.7  292.9  283.3
  841.0   1516   -3.7   -3.7    100   3.47    214      8  283.1  293.1  283.7
  825.0   1668   -3.5   -3.5    100   3.60    212      9  284.9  295.3  285.5

Rain.  36.3

39/28

19 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Will be best storm since 2016 for only people to the east of i95 ,not everyone 

I don’t think I’ll break top-5 since 2016.  

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Still snowing moderately in DC metro at 45 on 18z NAM 

Not sure about moderate.  We are tacking on 0.01 to 0.02”/hr from 3am on.

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GGEM do big west jumps and get the metro areas some coastal love as gfs shits the bed. That figures.

This is such a weird model battle.  There's no doubt that the GFS "won" by catching on to the synoptics.  But it was terrible for sensible weather, first spitting out monster amounts inland and then insisting that the main part of the event was during the day on Sunday.