MN Transplant

It gets DC to about 1" QPF, all snow.  Kuceras are going to be large.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

There's gotta be some warm layer in there, because with these Blue's Clues ass graphics, it looks like all snow and I know that aint right

This run doesn't bring the warmth anywhere near us.

Just now, stormtracker said:

so guys

We spent days not wanting the GFS solution, now it is our best hope

GFS still with a weak 850 low like this morning.  This shouldn't end up like the ICON or even the Euro.

One thing that I'm noticing is that the models with a stronger 850 low in the central US are the ones that are able to drive it up to Cleveland and eventually draw up the warm sector for us at the end of the storm.  The GFS does not do that, with a weak 850 low that is eventually replaced by a new low that forms off of Cape May, NJ.

This is what the Euro looks like above ground over DC.  1000mb at the bottom, going up by 50mb to 800mb and then by 100mb.

So, there isn’t necessarily any sneaky layer, it is just the 850-700mb level we lose later on in the storm.

Via Windy

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Mean got diluted between some suppressed members somehow getting added back into the mix and the continued amped camp. As it shows we still end up in the middle but a little less inspiring. 

From above, it looks like almost half of the members have 6" or less.

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did GEFS get posted? Still in a range where it has utility.

Not quite as good

While we are waiting for the GFS, here is a nice visualization of the 06z GEFS members for IAD.

https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/plumes/

59 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I'm hearing reports of aurora at sundown not too far away.

My brother got a faint glow outside of Frederick.  Camera visible only.

Went from ~0.06" QPF to ~0.75" around DC from 12z to 18z.  Love the GFS.

3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

15+ inches isn't HECS level?

Be careful with Kucera!

GDPS is great, but I'd pump the brakes on HECS-level.  DC and north looks like it is <1" QPF.

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Manges to get us our consolation prize with the NS scooping up the leftover moisture. Which, while obviously not what we want, is nice to have as a backup. 

Exactly.  This is a fail as far as what we want, but that is a solid northern stream vort that does some good work for us.  Still a couple to a few inches of snow with temps in the teens.

The SW low is in exactly the same spot as the 12z GFS.

5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Remember to use "max temp in profile" maps where possible or take a look at 700mb even if the 850mb-SFC maps are all below freezing. Warm nose can get pretty elevated in these scenarios.

I was just poking around the Euro and had to go all the way down to Rocky Mount/Raleigh before a warm nose at 725mb showed up.  It is amazing how cold these runs are.

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Trends have been great today, but still leaning in he @WxUSAF camp and weighing towards the ensembles until we get inside HR 84.

At least until we get convergence on the individual members. This is still a substantial spread on the GFS.  Still ~8 of 20 members that are duds for most of us.

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

He’s a f-ing troll to own the climate libs?

And showing the suppressed GFS isn't going to get clicks.

Just now, snowmagnet said:

2016 had 2-3 ft numbers for quite a while leading up. The only question was who would get  2 ft vs. 3 ft. 

The models didn't know.  We all did.

Just now, bncho said:

It's a 20yd FG attempt. you can't miss.

Chuckles nervously in Minnesota Vikings...

Looking back at the prior runs, it was the 12z GFS run yesterday that figured out that the storm was not a cutter.  Since then it has been consistently south, but we have plenty of time.  The other solutions this morning are really fun to see.

25 minutes ago, bncho said:

Why is that?

@high risk would have a better explanation, but usually if the models are struggling with surface temps while everything else looks normal, it is something to do with how they are implementing approximations via a boundary layer scheme.  Global and regional models simply can't calculate everything, so you effectively end up with little "models" inside of models.  Models have always struggled with how to calculate the mixing and radiative transfer near the surface in stable conditions.  The Euro is handling this poorly, which is how you get a minus teens forecast for parts of Virginia next week, which is not going to happen.  I think it is even struggling with temps in the pre-storm period on Saturday, given the much colder surface temps than the GFS despite only 1° difference at 925mb.  I'd just be cautious with any surface temp output from the Euro right now.

Just a reminder that the Euro surface temps are completely broken, so go with the GFS and adjust based on storm location if you think the Euro track is better.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

BWI had 0.2” yesterday. Haven’t seen anything for IAD or DCA.

We had not-even-close-to-accumulating flurries so I'm pretty sure they'll be a T.  The discussion in this thread about slick streets is a completely different world from what we experienced around DC.

Trace of snow both days this weekend.

Cold and dry