MN Transplant

1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said:

Hi all - got a couple of questions if I may.   I tried posting this one thing in the Meteorology 101 section but it seems like no one pays attention there, so figured I'd try here.

My son's looking to go into meteorology, and I was wondering about a couple of things.   

First - since we live in VA, he was looking to most likely do the program at VT for meteorology.   What are folks' thoughts on that program vs other ones around the east?   It seems pretty good (we just visited), but it sounds like there are other ones around that may be as good or better - e.g. PSU, UMd, FSU.   Rankings are all over the place, so not reliable at all.  

One disadvantage is that the VT program is only undergrad.   We were wondering how much that might matter though - if desired he could do undergrad at VT and graduate school at one of the others.   Also it seems like most meteorology careers don't require graduate degree - fair to say?

Cost of course is a consideration, and a big driver towards VT - getting in-state tuition.

Other question I had in the other thread is about AI and about the impact of NOAA cuts.   Thoughts?

(below is link to the thread)

Thanks!

 

 

 

 

 

VT is a relatively small program compared to the others that you've listed, but that isn't necessarily a problem.  I don't feel like meteorology has the same "ranking" hierarchy like law schools or business schools do.  It is more about what skills you can develop.  One thing to recognize is that meteorology has a very high "quit" ratio.  A lot of students are attracted to it for all the same reasons why we are on this board, but the math and physics weeds out a lot of them, so it is always good to keep your options open.  And with the job market the way it is and AI looming, the best candidates for jobs in the future in meteorology are probably going to be people that have diversified in some way.  So, things like computing/AI, emergency management, energy, transportation, etc.  The days of just getting a standard meteorology Bachelor's degree and then getting hired right away by the NWS or media is not dead, but a dwindling path.  

0.08".  The majority of models still give us some rain tomorrow.  Otherwise, just dreary.

Sprinkles

The Dulles area has entered "severe drought".  If this storm misses it would be extremely disappointing.  https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?VA

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS

That's the best GEFS run so far for DC

We basically want the northern energy to capture the southern low as soon as possible.  That keeps the pinwheeling cutoff mostly over land and drenches us.  If the capture happens too late or the whole longwave pattern shifts a bit east, we may be mostly dry.

0.06" for my CoCoRahs report, and then got an additional ~0.08" with that last line.  Hope the coastal pans out.

Can’t wait until Thursday and having most of the day in the 50s.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx

7 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

i hope we get a big nor'easter this winter.

Yeah, we need the rain.

Driest Aug/Sept combo in my records, beating 2015.  So, that 100% means an all-timer blizzard this year, right?  

10 hours ago, George BM said:

Shorter days. Cooler nights. Increasing festiveness. Lowering humidity. Decreasing mosquitos.

The decreasing mosquitos part of this would be welcome.

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Try harder Vikings

Backups in at 3 of the 5 OL positions plus Carson Wentz is not a recipe for a winning team.

Going to be weird to have two consecutive morning Sunday games for my Vikes.

0.01”

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

I'm happy to see some nice dry weather. The area has had plenty of rain. We have months of rainy weather incoming. Let's enjoy some sunny, low dews, fall weather. Great for hiking and checking out the fall color. I'm glad this system is headed out to sea. I can live without humid, swampy weather all week, again.  

Some places have had rain.  But, if the models are correct, many places in VA will go the better part of 3 months with less than 5” of rain.

1 hour ago, Ji said:

The hrrr hated this storm and the euro loved it too much . Bust

This is a disaster.  Right back to drought.

It is a really interesting how this evolves.  As Humberto moves around the Atlantic ridge it "tugs" on Imelda by causing a path of least resistance.  But Humberto is far enough along in the recurve that it accelerates north and allows the ridge to build over Imelda.  How exactly this plays out determines how far offshore Imelda gets, which in turn affects how close it can get to the US coast when it gets picked up by the next trough.  The 6z GFS pulls it pretty far out to sea, so any landfall is in the Canadian maritimes or not at all.  The 6z Euro leaves it off the Carolina coast through 144, which is markedly different form the 0z run.  The 0z GEM eventually takes it into New England!

Is there a win for us?  Very unlikely.  We'd need for it to be left behind and just churn over the Gulf Stream and then have a trough dig far enough to bring it in to us.  I'd be more optimistic about this in later October, but it seems like a pipe dream here.

40 minutes ago, LP08 said:

0z euro would up the fun meter vs the last several months.

I thought it was just the first storm, but then the fantasy-land up the Bay scenario popped up.

9 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Saw a stat that KOC and the Vikings are 15-3 when he has a ginger starting at QB. Let's hope he keeps that going with Wentz. I'm nervous about JJ Ponder when he gets healthy, he just seems a bit too jittery. I feel bad for the commanders and RG4 but that's the risk with a mobile QB who is super skinny. 

I think the absence of Darrisaw was a big factor in how JJM looked the first two weeks.  Darrisaw just completely eliminating Hendrickson from that game was great.

0.02”

3 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

To your point, LWX has suddenly and retroactively changed their tune (though not necessarily in the PM disco update):

I appreciate your observation...and honestly, your personal inputs here over the years. And please believe, I defend your profession more than you know....I only approach this from a hobbyist standpoint, but twice already this afternoon, I've had two neighbors ping me -- "yo, man...IT WASN'T SUPPOSED TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WTF??"    I got nuthin.   

Who knows...maybe we may have a microclimate thing going on here? This is anecdotal, but I'd say we've had exactly this kind of "blow-up" very localized shower/storm over the Hayfield/Kingstowne/Franconia area several times over the past two years, where almost no other locales in the close-in-NoVA burbs had nothing. And it's like it blows up...and rains/storms like hell...and then dissipates very quickly. That happened this afternoon, and at least a few times over the past two years.

I (along with a couple neighbors) were astounded when the sky opened up about two hours ago. It didn't even LOOK that showery/stormy if you looked to the west/NW (unless you looked at radar) but boy-howdy...did we get a good gully-washer for about an hour.

Yeah, it’s tough when the result is this

23 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Welp, planned to mow the front lawn early-mid afternoon, started getting Rain Alarm alerts almost an hour ago. I scoffed at them...because I sometimes get false-positives from that particular app (e.g., fog, low lying clouds, etc.) plus, it's supposed to be gorgeous this afternoon, and has been all morning and (up until) the past hour:

Get about two passes in on the front lawn...and the sky opens up, heavy downpour, can't hardly see across the street. That started about 40 min ago. Call me a cynic, but I didn't see this reflected above, nor in the morning disco, at least not for close-in NoVA burbs:

These are the kind of whiffs in forecasting that really piss me off. Can I mow tomorrow, or early next week? Yeah, I can likely fit it in with all of the other life crap. But c'mon, mets...can we get at least a bit more of a heads-up in the disco (which is usually what *I* pay attention to)?? Yeah, precip might not happen (and THAT'S usually in hard winter around here)...but this is annoying.

Ironically, we had a small picnic planned for our back patio/yard for midday today but had to cancel last-minute...thank God we did, or it would've been one helluva fire drill.

P.S. -- it's STILL raining almost an hour later.  

It does say "a few showers making it as far east as Southern MD".  90% of the area is dry.  They probably should have put a 20% POP in, though..

0.76”.  The DC beltway area did well with the afternoon round.

0.47” and climbing.  Meanwhile it is down to 59 for the low on the day.