MN Transplant

The CoCoRahs website lets you do 90-day custom maps.  I set it for Dec 15 - Mar 15, because that is a pretty good sense of climo.  Any storms outside of that window would be missed in my analysis.  The favored regions each winter were:

2024/25 - South and east

2023/24 - Central (MoCo through Baltimore)

2022/23 - Everyone lost

2021/22 - Fairly uniform, south a bit better than north

2020/21 - North had a dominant advantage

2019/20 - Another dead-ratter.  Better north, but we're talking 4-6" vs 0-2".

2018/19 - North and central much better.  Hwy 50 as a dividing line

2017/18 - Best in the north and east.  Another sub-10" dud for most.

2016/17 - Marginally better north, yet another sub-10" year for most.

2015/16 - Almost everyone got to party!  MoCo with some of the biggest totals.

So, obviously it is better to be north over the long run and they had a nice advantage in the 5 winters post the 2016 blizzard.  Since then, they have been worse versus climo than central or south.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How do I get that map from 2018 through now? That's the time period I really wanna see.

I picked out some CoCoRaHS points for winter 2018/19 to present:

Northern St. Mary's Co. - 53.0"

Mid Calvert Co. - 54.8"

Southern Anne Arundel - 45.5"

Near Salisbury - 46.7"

For comparison:

Falls Church, VA - 76.3" (my house)

DCA - 59.4"

BWI - 69.6"

IAD - 84.8"

I'm sitting here trying how to use my 10-year old DSLR camera that has been on the shelf for years because iPhones are easy.  F-stops, ISO, etc.  

2 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Vikings stink with basically a rookie at QB...Packers stink with one of the highest paid QBs in the league...stink knows stink

If the Vikings are going to be in last place in the division, it warms my heart to see the Packers in 3rd.  

27.3 this morning.  Colder than the airports and every MD mesonet site east of the panhandle.  A topsy-turvy world.

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This rain seems heavier and more widespread than what guidance was suggesting. And I’m still getting screwed.

For all the pretty colors on the radar, I’m at 0.09”

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I can't believe you guys got rid of Sam Darnold. He's having a MVP season with Seattle. The thought is that JJ McCarthy would be really good if they did something like that, but his stats so far are really not impressive at all. If it weren't for the 3 turnovers though, I'm not sure the Ravens would have won it. Lamar also had like 4 passes that could have been intercepted, which is rare for him. He seemed a little off his game today. 

We watched Sam wither in the final two games last year.  He wasn’t coming back for the dollars/years he wanted.

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

What a damn cluster-f.  8 false starts at home!  Jefferson’s worst game as a pro (I would not be surprised if he’s injured/sick).  Coach completely abandoning the run which was working great and calling long-developing plays for your QB that has started 3 prior games.  Lose the TO battle 3-0, all of which were avoidable.  All the good vibes after beating Detroit are gone in 60 awful minutes.

Just saw a stat that the Vikings had 19 3rd or 4th downs and threw the ball on all of them.  Just a terrible coaching day by KOC.

What a damn cluster-f.  8 false starts at home!  Jefferson’s worst game as a pro (I would not be surprised if he’s injured/sick).  Coach completely abandoning the run which was working great and calling long-developing plays for your QB that has started 3 prior games.  Lose the TO battle 3-0, all of which were avoidable.  All the good vibes after beating Detroit are gone in 60 awful minutes.

2 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

I certainly like colder weather but ill never hate a day like today in early November. Spectacular 

Upper 60s, mostly sunny, little wind.  Top-10 practical weather day of the year.

9 minutes ago, Midshore said:

I was at that Ravens snow game too and have never seen anything else like it. I'm a lifelong Ravens and Baltimore Colts and Orioles fan and have been lurking on here for a very long time. I live in Caroline County just south of Denton and I'm about 10 miles south of CAPE's location. I'm unlurking now because I wanted to ask a question about earthquakes. I worked at Caroline Country Club back in 2011 when the magnitude 5.8 one hit and we felt it big time there. I believe that I may have felt a small tremor here last Saturday night around 8:00 PM, right before game 7 of the World Series started (speaking of crazy sports events). The sounds that my house made and the duration of the "event" reminded me of the 2011 one, but on a very small scale. I didn't have my TV sound on and it was very quiet, otherwise I may not have noticed it. I immediately opened the door and there was no traffic anywhere near me and totally silent outside. My question is, is there any way to check to see if a tremor happened here then or anywhere else for that matter? I checked the USGS site and nothing was listed. Do any government agencies monitor tremors everywhere at all times or do any local hobbyists in this area have equipment to do so? Sorry about the long winded first post and thanks to everyone for the great information that American Weather provides.

I don't think that you are going to find anything more authoritative than the USGS.  I went to the search page and lowered the threshold to an effectively imperceptible 1.5 magnitude, and the only one that shows up in the last month is the 2.5 on 10/27 near Columbia, MD.  https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

Welcome!

32 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Maybe it will be kinda windy one day soon. Bored to tears by this weather.

Tuesday looks raw with gusty winds and temps in the 30s/40s.  

0.28".  Pretty well modeled, except for the HRRR.

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

The Ravens weren't very good that season and missed the playoffs, but that game was wild in the snow.

I don’t think a game has ever gone from relatively boring to batshit insane quite like that one.

NAM/Euro/GFS are looking good for rain tonight (0.25"+) but the HRRR hates it.  Interesting battle.

33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're really starting to see some impressive microclimates emerge. Thurmont dipped to 34 degrees, but just to the northeast Harney at its lower elevation decoupled to 26 degrees.

Westminster at 882' with a low of 38.  And Frostburg in the mountains misses at 36.  Elevation, open water, and urban heat island all doing work around the region.

37.4, not even close.  Will wait for Tuesday.

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z Euro likes the idea of more than flurries.

The Euro is interesting in that it is digging a potent 500 low which provides the dynamics needed for a post-frontal burst of precip.  The GFS does not have this (nor does the AIFS for that matter).  Probably a pipe dream, but worth keeping an eye on.

Ravens vs Vikings next week.  Two teams trying to resurrect their seasons.

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Happy Halloween! I have a cloud scavenger hunt for my Atmosphere and Weather course (which is a nice break from the physics of lapse rates, vapor pressure, saturation, and actually learning what a scew-T log P chart means). Would love for some mets @Eskimo Joe @MN Transplant@high risk@WxUSAF to weigh in on when I could find the "rare" clouds (or what soundings to look for on my own). Thanks! 

I consider the dotted lines of clouds from NNE to SSW today to be gravity wave clouds from terrain induced rising and falling air.  I realize this doesn't help if you aren't currently in the western areas, but look for something similar in the future.  Lenticular is going to be really tough around here, especially outside of isolated thunderstorm season (for pileus).  

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Numerous gusts to 40 here, peak of 46!

Airports have all gusted in the 40-45mph range.  Peak MD Mesonet gust right now is 39mph.  Will be funny to see the inflatable Halloween decorations in the wind this evening, though it won't be as gusty.

1.09” for the morning report.  Highest single day report since July 15th.

22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Genuinely curious as it always seems like the NAM 3k has the most orthographic precip out of all models always (including the other high res ones). Is it actually more accurate or is it overdoing it?

It is overly sensitive to terrain.

Going to be chilly and breezy for trick-or-treating on Friday.

10 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Here come the last minute walkbacks

The 12z HRRR is a trouncing for me.  Around 3".