MN Transplant

50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems like very little rain so far IMBY. 0.15”?

There were favored areas, and it wasn’t us

0.12” so far.  Meh

46 minutes ago, yoda said:

Somewhere on my old computer I have the model snowfall images for i think it was Jan 2016.  Was that the one that had the 70 inches at IAD?

Might have happened then too, but I'm definitely thinking of one from prior to the Feb 6th, 2010 storm.

5 hours ago, H2O said:

Nothing can replace the CRAS. CRAS4LYFE

DGEX.  If only for the one run in 2010 where it nearly ran out of colors for the snow over us.

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Today will presumably break the streak of 21 days/3 weeks of below normal temps. That’s an impressive run. When was the last time we had a streak that long? I thought Feb-Mar 2015, but that didn’t have that many consecutive BN days. Nov-Dec 1989 had 32 days!

The airports in the -8 to -9 range more than halfway through the month.  Seriously legit.

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

low of 28F at DCA and 36F up here at around 380' in upper NW.  Not typical lol.

You weren't kidding, what an inversion last night.  IAD at 23 and my low was 35.  I'm not sure when I've ever been up on DCA by 7 degrees for a low.

On the MD Mesonet, the warmest site was Frostburg at nearly 2300'.  

2 hours ago, H2O said:

17. Was expecting colder

Models had it pegged that it would be flat overnight as the overall airmass moderated.  My 14.2 low was at 12:39am.

19.6 and the wild is howling 

37 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m starting to wonder if the mesos have a bias for more qpf in the 24 hours leading up to the event. We know the nam does this, but do other mesos have that same bias? I think the HRRR was onto something with the local minima over Loudoun.

QPF was good around here, but it should have been a bigger warning sign that Kucera was less than 10:1.

41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0.3" at DCA.  Woof

40 minutes ago, snowfan said:

The pics I’ve seen out of the DC lowlands are comical. 

Ground is barely whitened and the trees don't have much.  At least at my elevation (~450') it stuck to the trees.  DCA's measurements always seem suspect, but for the most part they are reality.

12/5 - 1.9"

12/14 - 1.3"

Total - 3.2"

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Did you have any graupel?  I woke up to that hitting my window at 4am as it finally started to crank.  Did not expect that.  I think guidance yesterday did pretty dang well for areas north of I70, but subsidence between bands and accordingly warmer temps shot us in the foot farther south.  

Yeah, some, but not a lot.  Weirdly, it balances out the extremely high ratio snow from last week to the point where I’m nearly 10:1 on the season.

1.3” on 0.25” precip.  Putrid ratios

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This band isn’t the main show. If it is everything has gone horribly wrong. But no reason to think that yet. 
 

I am starting to think DC roads aren’t gonna cave. Which is fine I guess. Just not as fun

We are still 6 hours away from snow in the DC beltway.

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Don’t think we ever saw the sun pop out in DC. Only 42. We’ve done better with worse 

At one point the HRRR wanted to pump us to the mid-upper 40s.  I topped out at 42 also.

RRFS is a dud for Virginia but looks good north of Baltimore.

10:1 maps are higher than Kucera on the NAM in this case.  I'd take the lower amounts.

5pm Sunday wind chills of -5 to +5.  Get your stuff done today.

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z Hrr cutting back totals a little bit south of PA

Ends up about identical to 6z around DC.  2"

41 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z 3K NAM stinks compared to 0Z.

It snows for maybe 2 hours IMBY on the 6z 3k.  

Everyone is appropriately focused on the precip chances, but the temperature trend is looking like it will be unusual.  The core of the cold sweeps in during the day Sunday and we are in deep winter by evening with temps somewhere around 20 and breezy conditions.  But then the airmass begins to moderate and we flatline overnight into Monday.  

59 minutes ago, H2O said:

Southern end precip getting cut back as models home in on clipper transfer and coastal pop. Trend has been drier for DC south along 95 but if I get a dusting to 1” I’ll take it and quietly wish it was more

I think we're semi-cooked on this one.  It just frankly doesn't snow for very long on any of the models and it isn't like this is a juiced up event.  We'll try again in January.

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Love the euro for MBY

Forget north/south, it is 95 vs everyone else

16.0.  This is a cold December so far.

Thank you Washington for the confidence-builder for McCarthy.  I still doubt he’s the guy, but it is good to see.