MN Transplant

NAM/Euro/GFS are looking good for rain tonight (0.25"+) but the HRRR hates it.  Interesting battle.

33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're really starting to see some impressive microclimates emerge. Thurmont dipped to 34 degrees, but just to the northeast Harney at its lower elevation decoupled to 26 degrees.

Westminster at 882' with a low of 38.  And Frostburg in the mountains misses at 36.  Elevation, open water, and urban heat island all doing work around the region.

37.4, not even close.  Will wait for Tuesday.

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z Euro likes the idea of more than flurries.

The Euro is interesting in that it is digging a potent 500 low which provides the dynamics needed for a post-frontal burst of precip.  The GFS does not have this (nor does the AIFS for that matter).  Probably a pipe dream, but worth keeping an eye on.

Ravens vs Vikings next week.  Two teams trying to resurrect their seasons.

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Happy Halloween! I have a cloud scavenger hunt for my Atmosphere and Weather course (which is a nice break from the physics of lapse rates, vapor pressure, saturation, and actually learning what a scew-T log P chart means). Would love for some mets @Eskimo Joe @MN Transplant@high risk@WxUSAF to weigh in on when I could find the "rare" clouds (or what soundings to look for on my own). Thanks! 

I consider the dotted lines of clouds from NNE to SSW today to be gravity wave clouds from terrain induced rising and falling air.  I realize this doesn't help if you aren't currently in the western areas, but look for something similar in the future.  Lenticular is going to be really tough around here, especially outside of isolated thunderstorm season (for pileus).  

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Numerous gusts to 40 here, peak of 46!

Airports have all gusted in the 40-45mph range.  Peak MD Mesonet gust right now is 39mph.  Will be funny to see the inflatable Halloween decorations in the wind this evening, though it won't be as gusty.

1.09” for the morning report.  Highest single day report since July 15th.

22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Genuinely curious as it always seems like the NAM 3k has the most orthographic precip out of all models always (including the other high res ones). Is it actually more accurate or is it overdoing it?

It is overly sensitive to terrain.

Going to be chilly and breezy for trick-or-treating on Friday.

10 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Here come the last minute walkbacks

The 12z HRRR is a trouncing for me.  Around 3".

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Apparently I was asleep at the wheel - I was not expecting the winds to be so intense today.  Pretty raw out there.  

Yeah, a chilly day today with mid-50s, a breeze, and overcast.

8 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

Every Shohei Ohtani feat is like - this is the first time since Button-Eyed Barnaby Jones did it with the Providence Grays in 1884.

9 at bats, 9 times on base.  That is unreal.

7 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

In a mountainous island like Jamaica it absolutely is true.  Obviously winds will be devastating at the center, but the biggest impact for the island will be the sheer amount of rainfall from this event that will be exacerbated by topo with mass amounts of fresh water having nowhere to drain during the height of the storm due to surge.  

Jamaica's coastline is relatively steep in most places, so the surge is less likely to be a concern.  Rainfall and wind are the big-ticket items here.  This is probably more akin to Maria in PR as anything else.

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wind is always the least worry in a landfalling hurricane. Storm surge and flooding are top concerns here. 

Depends on the location.  Jamaica has mostly block structures, which is helpful, but how are the roofs going to fare if this does land as a Cat 4+?  The wind will be very damaging to housing and infrastructure.  The HAFS make me worry about Montego Bay on the NW side.

Have we ever seen a cat 5 hurricane make a massive change in direction while maintaining strength?

No, it was slightly below normal but nothing special.  It was not colder than 2014-2015 or 2013-2014.  

They haven't updated the Winter column for 24-25, but you can do your own math:  https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwitemps.pdf

Amazing that this thing is still 36+ hours from landfall.

11 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Thank you for the info, IAD seems to be an ice box compared to the other climate sites.

IAD is perfectly situated in a little shallow bowl which promotes cold air drainage on calm nights.  

https://www.heywhatsthat.com/profiler.html - very old website that I still find useful sometimes.  The change in color is at IAD, with a west to east profile.

53 minutes ago, nj2va said:

So happy to see the Dodgers get smacked around last night. 

I want them to 3-peat going into the 2026 lockout/strike so we get a salary cap/floor in MLB.  

Just now, kgottwald said:

What's it going to take to get a subfreezing low at DCA in October? 15 at IAD??

Wind.  That's what defeats the warm river and the heat island.  

39.0 for a low here on the west side of the DC Beltway.  

First morning in the 30s at 39.6.  Light frost in the favored lower elevation neighborhood spots.

39 degrees spread between high and low at IAD yesterday.  They are now almost 9" below normal for the calendar year.

0.05”. Better than nothing as we transition back to dry.

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

NoVA lost 200” of snow at 0z. Poor @Ji

A washout of a Halloween though.