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MN Transplant

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    October Banter 2026

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

    They need to win more games now so it hurts worse when they lose in some kind of epic fashion in January.  Buffalo falls into this category also.   #cursedfranchises

    It’s not like we have a perfect kicker…oh.

    Major Hurricane Isaias

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

    If so, they are violating their own directive.  Why have thresholds for warnings if they are just deliberately ignored?  Why not lower the criteria for a svr tstm warming for winds less then 58 mph in gusts b/c they can still do damage?  How about pea size hail?  A lot of pea size hail can devastate crops.  Issue a warning for that?  It is slippery slope. There comes a point of diminishing returns.  Excessive alerts eventually become counterproductive.

     

    I generally agree with you, especially being in the mid-Atlantic where a severe warning is verified on a 35mph gust that takes down a dead tree branch, but I don't think that this one matters too much.  I might argue that 115mph sustained is a too high of a marker for an EWW.  That's an EF2 tornado sustained!  

     

    Hopefully this cam stays up.  https://maps.app.goo.gl/5GBwpLHVo3nQd6CH8

     

    • Like 2

    Major Hurricane Isaias

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

    For the EWW issued in FL now. 

    EWW is defined to expect winds *sustained* 115 mph (not gusts).

    Look at the plot attached.  What are the chances of sustained winds this strong *anywhere* but the immediate coast, say within 5 mi?  Due to friction, sustained winds drop off very, very quickly once inland.  And for a hurricane that is right at the threshold of 115 mph for winds over *water*, you are going to be hard pressed to even see such sustained winds anywhere on land.   

    It goes to show how warnings often are overdone and do not account for obvious factors, like how strong a hurricane is, how large or fasting-moving it is. or how far inland locations are.

    Objectively, getting winds 115 mph sustained more than a few miles inland at near ground level is practically unheard of more than a few miles inland.  Exceptions would be Andrew, Michael and Camille, but Isaias is no where near any of them.  You can't treat hurricane landfalls as one-size-fits-all.  We have the skill, knowledge, and tech to fine-tune things better and narrow down warning areas these days.

    And it is not like people this area of the FL PH are not already warned the wazoo a hurricane is making landfall.  That very fact has already resulted in major action and lock downs, so people are more than prepared.  The word "hurricane" in itself prompts immense action.
     

    eww.PNG

    Maybe the interesting thing here is that the EWW text has no mention of wind speeds at all.  It might simply be that the NWS offices are ignoring the 115mph sustained guidance and going with an EWW for all major hurricane eyewalls.

    • Like 1

    Remnants of Hurricane Isaias

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 hours ago, high risk said:

    My initial reaction was that tornado potential would be confined to southeast VA and the Eastern Shore, because widespread rain over the DC metro area would limit instability.   Looking at CAMs, however, suggests that rain will likely end by early or mid afternoon for areas south and southeast of the warm front, and some decently high theta-e air will be available.    With the intense shear forecasted, it won't take much instability to make things very interesting.   The question, though, the track of the surface low.  My money is still on a track that keeps the warm sector south and east of DC, but there are solutions that track the low further to the northwest which would put our area into the game later Sunday.

    A big factor is that TC tornadoes are strongly diurnal.  The CAMs all have the same idea with a broken (super?)cellular line, but it doesn't really rotate up here until after sundown.  If I were chasing, I think I'd head to Lynchburg and plan to follow the cells northeast.

    • Like 5

    October Banter 2026

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    10 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

    Meh...4-0

     

    9 hours ago, CAPE said:

    Your team sure wins ugly. Probably a paper tiger, but they were my survivor pick this week so that worked out(barely).

    In 2022 the Vikings had a great record and a terrible point differential.  That was the most obvious paper tiger in recent memory (they lost to Daniel Jones in the WC game).  The 2026 Vikings have the 5th best point differential right now and the starting QB has been in the system two weeks (mostly without Jefferson).  The D and ST are elite, but I have simply no idea whether the O can find a way this season.  It is ugly so far.

    September Banter 2026

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

    Yeah man...that was awful last night :lol:. Falcons did that to us last year but we didn't have a 55 million dollar QB. TB worries me...remember Baker said he knew the calls last time. Anyway...it's better to be 2-0 than not

    Tampa is desperate to avoid 0-3, so I wouldn’t be shocked if we tripped up this week, but hopefully Murray shows something.

    • Like 1
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