MN Transplant

20 hours ago, mattie g said:

Absolutely, miserably dreary day today.

I didn't realize immediately that this post was from yesterday.

The HRRR and 3k NAM seem to agree that it is mostly freezing drizzle during the day Saturday and then there is a batch of ZR that moves through overnight.

DCA might have had a sub freezing day except for the midnight high.

5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

hmmm...north american model 

The way Mattie feels about CC is the way I feel about composite reflectivity.

1.5"  - 12/16

0.1" - 12/18

0.1" - 1/25

4.7" - 1/31 to 2/2

1.7" - 2/7

0.3" - 2/10

Total:  8.4"

12 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

    This forecast yesterday from the NAM nest (using 10:1, since snow depth maps failed due to the warmer soil leading in) wasn't too shabby:

 

The American mesoscale models did really well with this one.  Kudos to the NWS.

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Woah is that snowfall?

Yes

0.3”  frozen on 0.38” precip.  Disaster.

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Mattie lol

@mattie g is already on the wrong side of this.  No whining.

5 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

I’m at the vdot yard in chantilly off of rt 50 and it’s all sleet here.

Yup, all sleet here now.  Curse the NAM and HRRR for being right.

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

But is it rain? It seems to be rain here east of DC. 

Rain and sleet. This winter is deeply frustrating.

Traffic cams around Dulles look like wet snow, but it is hard to tell.

33.4 in Falls Church

34 at IAD

35 at DCA

DCA has had very reasonable measurements in the past few years.  This seems oddly aggressive, but maybe they are doing better.

About 1/4” here.

Wet bulb

1 minute ago, H2O said:

I'm afraid to look at the 850 meso maps.  Someone do it and let me know how just under DC looks. 

15 more minutes of this and I might be able to measure something.  Suck it, NAM.

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

It’s actually a nice burst of snow right now

Would have been nice to get a base started, if it wasn’t 35 degrees.

37.3 with non-accumulating flakes

At some point you just have to marvel at it.

Let’s check in on the latest HRRR.  Yeah.

Really amazing how the Euro just completely blew this from 3-4 days out.  There was little to no 850 push on the Euro as of a few days ago.  The GFS and the longer range NAM had it.

Sigh

HRRR is trending towards the worst-case scenario for DC.  Too warm with the 1st batch and the second misses south.

3k with maybe half of the precip of the 12k