MN Transplant

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I know this is mostly a joke now…but just throwing this out there, while the numbers are compelling that snow in the  colder parts of our region early is a good sign…it is, it’s also worth pointing out that the only 2 exceptions in the 75 years I looked at where our area got a snowy winter after not having an inch of snow here until after Xmas we’re both high analogs to this winter. 1987 and 1966.  On top of that when I ran the numbers for only ninos the snow mean falls more slowly than in all years.  
 

That said early is still better. Early opens up the best analogs like 1958, 1964, 2003, 2010. 

Ok, I ran some numbers for DCA.  For the period 1950-forward, the correlation between temps and snow gets stronger as you go through the winter.  We root for cold and hope for precip.  Snow on the vertical axis, temp departure from current norms on the horizontal axis.

Interesting note on the final (full season) chart.  The two 20"+ winters that were above normal temps were due to HECS (1983, 2016).  So, you want to have a full-season negative departure or you are praying for a fluke.

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Probably the nicest fall I can remember.

It has been extraordinarily sunny, which I think factors in heavily.  Since the start of September I've only had 4 days where there was any appreciable midday solar radiation restriction.

70 over 30 at IAD.  Crispy

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Dry

Especially rough further south in VA

47 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Was just poking around LWX yearly snow totals and was shocked (and not shocked) to see that Dulles got ~20" more than DCA in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Threw BWI in the below for the whole picture (apologies for the formatting). I went back and found my post from late March 2014 that said I reached 50" on the year IMBY. Reading through that 2013-2014 snow totals thread was fun...lots of amazing totals!

	DCA	IAD	BWI
2013-2014	32.0	52.8	39.0
2014-2015	18.3	36.9	28.7

 

48.3”.  Great year.

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Another local TV met teams outlook that I think is supposed to message “above normal” snow (because this is, strictly, for DC alone) and ends up being slightly below normal to well below normal for most of the rest of the area. 

 

That + sign is doing heavy lifting out in the mountains.

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

More likely to get 5” of rain 

We take that too

On 11/8/2023 at 8:53 AM, EastCoast NPZ said:

0"

 

Everywhere

Come on, I was waiting to come in and Price is Right everyone 

33 minutes ago, George BM said:

Dulles has just hit 79F breaking the daily record of 78F.

ETA: Now 80F. lol

ETA2: 81F. 

Meanwhile DCA is river winding

No special pattern?  No need, we'll just tack on another record high.

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Pretty cool data here. Graphic showing the frequency of certain high/low patterns. 

Jared Rennie is a great source for cool climate and weather info. Give him a follow! 
 

IAD/BWI/DCA Temps

Amazing to see visually how the bottom can just drop out at IAD in the right conditions.

3 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

That's a pretty cool data summary - where can I find that, if I may ask?

I'm in LoCo, and indeed it's been super-dry, again, for the past month+.   Thought we were going to get some relief about a month ago, but back to drought, with no significant rain in the 10-day.   Not a good fall to try to plant some grass.  Oh well.

 

There are a few different ways to get at it from the CoCoRaHS site.  One is here:  https://dex.cocorahs.org

You may need to try a few before getting one that has a long timeframe.  Generally the sites with lower numbers after the county code.

On 11/4/2023 at 6:58 PM, WxUSAF said:

Definitely been signs of a stout +PNA possibly forming 5ish days before thanksgiving. Also looks like precipitation finally ramps up after mid month.

I was checking dry Oct/Nov periods and since 1950 all 5 combinations of Oct and Nov that were well below normal (<1.5" precip/month) were in Nina or negative neutral periods.  So, it would certainly argue for an increase in precipitation later in the month.  

(1964, 1974, 1998, 2001, 2016 - winters were below normal precip and snow, but again, all Nina-like)

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

What the heck just happened...Vikings had no right to win but I'll take it. Atlanta must be awful and the Vikings backups are pretty good it seems. Sweet victory 

No Kirk, No JJ, No Darrisaw.  Rookie QB who has been practicing all week gets a concussion in the first quarter.  And they win with a guy that they just traded for and had never even taken a snap from the center.  Amazing.

32 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

2 more town wells have gone dry here in Round Hill prompting this:

NOTICE: On November 1, 2023 the Mayor & Town Council of Round Hill declared Mandatory Water Conservation Phase One effective November 2, 2023.

Round Hill is currently under a Severe Drought. All customers of the Town's water system are requested to conserve wherever and whenever possible in their normal consumption of water. It shall be unlawful for any person to use water from the Town's water system for the purpose of watering lawns and gardens, washing cars, filling swimming pools, and like activities. Any person or customer found conducting any of these prohibited uses shall be subject to a fine not to exceed five hundred ($500) dollars for each violation.

Please refrain from such activities as the following:

•No washing or using water hoses on paved areas, buildings, windows, or hard-surfaced areas,

•No operating ornamental fountains,

•No washing or rinsing vehicles by hose,

•No new landscaping established (unless you use rain barrels to water)

 

 

Cleanly the driest year in well over a decade in Loudoun Co.  2018 and this year are the two outliers.

(cocorahs data)

Great writeup and analysis.  I certainly hope this comes to fruition.

IMO, only a 10% chance of less than 10" is really aggressive.  5 of the last 7 winters have been sub-10" in my backyard, and I'm not even in a river like DCA.  

Is Yoda our resident Texas Rangers fan?  Maybe still partying

Makes the O's loss to the Rangers not look quite as bad.

Oddity this year in that my backyard with the oaks has more leaves than the front yard with the maple.  The maple usually drops before the long period of oak leaf fall.  The dogs have already dug some holes in the yard, so I'll be patching next spring.

BWI snuck it in.  32

31.3 for the low here.  
 

IAD got it cleanly.  DCA did not.  BWI is close.

2 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Co workers in Minnesota and Wisconsin sharing snow pics this morning 

I’m sure they are all making reference to the great Halloween Blizzard of ‘91.  Though La Crosse had more of a mix in that one.

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This stupid conversation is all over thanks.

That like on the initial post is a name I haven’t seen in a while.

IAD lost almost 10 degrees in 10 minutes without any precip.  Still made it to the lower 80s.

2 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

I've never felt so down after beating the Packers at Lambeau...thorough butt whooping yet Kirk going down blows.

Amazingly, this team was better than the 13-4 team last year.  They were poised to make a run with a soft schedule coming up, JJ coming back, and Kirk playing the best of his career.  And now, do they panic and bring in someone else, or just accept the tank and let Hall go out there?  So deflating.

People in costumes at the Halloween parties today looked absolutely miserable.  Obscene weather.