MN Transplant

84/42 at IAD.  +17 for the high, and -1 for the low.

Looks like another easily above normal month.

Torch

0.29", which is fine since we are doing well so far this year.  

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yikes, 12 hours through NH is nuts. We had a ~50 min backup to go about 6 miles as we were leaving Monday. Stopped in Johnson City, TX, for dinner to get out of it and the local businesses were actually mostly disappointed with the lack of customers. 

I wondered about the local businesses too.  I think it was the gas stations (especially the ones with food) and hotels that really profited.  

20 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

lessons for 2045 (writing these for myself)

- cirrus clouds are fake - don’t worry about them.
- probably want to spend the day before and the day after there
- pre-eclipse traffic is fake. Post-eclipse traffic is more real
- can watch from anywhere. Doesn’t matter where… just go
- if you want to film a video to show others, try and avoid crying of awe in the background lol

Adding to this, while the extra length is nice, you don’t have to be center line to enjoy totality.  

5 hours ago, Wxtrix said:

crappy phone picture does not do it justice. the sun had a black hole in the middle of it, and it was surrounded by white flames, with a red ball of fire on the bottom. and that was after the light quickly drained away leaving the aftertaste of dread. so incredible.

 

The red spot was a really interesting part of the experience.  Evidently we did see a prominence.  In my view it was at about 7 o’clock on the sun’s ring.

https://x.com/forecaster25/status/1777434179136819497?s=46&t=bA1Os5w_10i9PfsurY28aw

That was awesome

Made it to Malone, NY.  Milky skies, but better than I expected last night.  Curious how much corona I’ll get to see.

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Try Plattsburgh?

The upper level cirrus isn’t bad at all in Syracuse.  We might try to outrun the mid level deck.

In Syracuse but it definitely is looking cloudy all over NY.  If it were just me, I’d take the chance and try to swoop over to northern VT/NH, but I’m not going to put my family though that!

47 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I don't want this to influence anyone's plans, but I am getting increasingly pessimistic about NY.  As you step down in heights on the 12z euro, you see a gradual lowering of the cloud deck, such that any one spot is likely to be cloudy.  I'm still headed up there, but tempering my expectations.

 

And then the 3km NAM comes in a with a perfectly acceptable solution.

I don't want this to influence anyone's plans, but I am getting increasingly pessimistic about NY.  As you step down in heights on the 12z euro, you see a gradual lowering of the cloud deck, such that any one spot is likely to be cloudy.  I'm still headed up there, but tempering my expectations.

12z NAM nest wants to keep the rain together as it enters NY

Looking at the GFS is bad for my mental health 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure what “sunshine duration (1h)” precisely means, but I like that a LOT more than the cloud cover %. GFS shows 0 mins for TX, but euro is like 30-50 mins for eclipse time. 

The sunshine duration on the Euro seemed optimistic, but I'm good with that.

25 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Sorry I have to ask... What does it look like in Cleveland area?

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

Choose "All" under Parameter Selection and go down to Clouds.

Select Ohio under Change Map Selection.

Ok, here's the 12z Euro for NY.  Yellow is good, dark is bad.

First up, no low clouds as we've been talking about.  Splotchy mid-level clouds, and then an exiting deck of high-level clouds.

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

What about Litchfield Ohio.

41.1678N 82.0229W

Not bad, verbatim.  The algorithm says few clouds.  Also looks good on the NAM.  
 

Better GFS run for NY.  

14 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Finally!  I can't wait for a good eclipse NAMing!!!

15 hours ago, baltosquid said:

psst... get excited... 06z tomorrow, NAM range!

And we got one!  Here's the big difference between the NAM and GFS.  You can see the saturated layer from 250 to 350mb on the GFS sounding, which is our upper-level clouds.  On the NAM, not so much. 

(edit - for the Watertown/Syracuse area)

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Things have gotten a bit better for western NY over the last day. We were up in the 60s for cloud cover on NBM and it’s back down into the upper 40s/low 50s as it oscillates back and forth. I’d gamble with that. 

The OP GFS was trending well until 12z

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

All I’d recommend is picking your spot, get there early, and leave well after totality. Most people will get back in the car right after totality ends. Stay put for another few hours and hopefully traffic calms down. 

Yeah, finding somewhere with bathroom access is key 

I’ve locked in NY, so now it is all about avoiding that leaf of citrus that will develop.  I’m sure the roads between Syracuse/Watertown/Rochester will be easy to navigate on Monday  

20 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Wonder if we’ll get some little hailers tomorrow with the upper low passing over.  NAM has quite impressive mid-level lapse rates.

 

edit - I see High Risk already mentioned this over in the severe thread

I want severe graupel!


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry conditions have returned to the area early this morning, with
some patchy dense fog developing in a few river valleys. Cloud cover
increases this morning as a deep low pressure over the OH Valley
moves east and over the area today into tonight. This is going to
produce scattered to widespread showers, with isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon into early evening. Given cold temps aloft, strong
forcing for ascent, and steep mid-level lapse rates it is likely
that the stronger convection produces graupel. Most of it should
remain small, though it could accumulate in any heavy showers/storm.
While it is not likely, cannot rule out that graupel reaches the
size where a Severe Thunderstorm Warning could be needed. Highs
today reach the 50s, and the upper 30s to 40s in the mountains.

Wonder if we’ll get some little hailers tomorrow with the upper low passing over.  NAM has quite impressive mid-level lapse rates.

edit - I see High Risk already mentioned this over in the severe thread