MN Transplant

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Posts posted by MN Transplant

  1. Just now, DDweatherman said:

    Some internal communication between you two coulda helped there.. lol

    Weather boards.  Serious business.

    33.8 and a very pleasant day out there.  Snow board is set up and ready for some sort of precipitation.

    • Like 3
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  2. 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    *This is NOT a storm cancel or autopsy.  It could break our way. Just wanted to highlight something larger scale going on*

    I wanted to illustrate something. 

    look at 6z. This is generally the same across guidance. The primary dies in eastern TN. The coastal takes over and tracks from outer banks to east of Delmarva. Look at where the banding of precip is. That blue area is where it SHOULD be snow. But it’s not. It’s mixed with sleet and freezing rain all the way to the PA line. 

    Guidance isn’t trending north. It’s trending warmer. And I don’t know why. What are we even rooting for there?  That track is absolutely PERFECT in every way!  We have an Arctic high in place. Cant use the “no cold air” excuse. This keeps happening a lot lately. Tracks that should produce snow in DC find a way not too or produce way less then they SHOULD.  It’s frustrating and troubling. 

    The trough axis at that point is in the central Plains.  While we do pop a surface low in the right spot, this is not a good setup for an all-snow event for our region, no matter what the year is.

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  3. 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Where that banding among the boundary sets up likely is mostly snow. In my experience the dynamics and the ability of heavy rates to mix our a small warm layer typically wins in that band.  Plus the mid level warm layer typically is where you get the dry slot. So no matter what the guidance says that band is often where the snow/sleet line sets up just south of it. 

    While generally true, the 18z NAM 3k is just a region wide precip show.  DC isn't even in the best band, almost everyone is 0.75"+ in that time period.

  4. Just now, stormtracker said:

    Yeah, NAM is less snow than just about any other model.  I'm not going to be too down about it.  And even as modeled on the 18z NAM, it's still a fun storm

    3k has 0.91" precip in 6 hours from 12z-18z.  While I want that all to be snow, the sleet beatdown would be crazy to watch (and hear).

    • Like 4

  5. 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

    For sure. I expect that’s overdone, but teens for lows seems likely.

    I think we can do it.  Our most recent single-digits cold snap isn't actually all that long ago (Jan 31, 2019).  10 at DCA, 6 at my house, probably colder everywhere else.

    • Like 1

  6. Just now, GEOS5ftw said:

    I'd wait for the 3km which should be in range for most of the storm now. A lot of these subtle mid level temperature changes are related to banding which the 12km NAM does not resolve as well as 3km. Could very well be that heavier precip=snow and lighter precip=sleet in the transition zone.

    Well, we've taken a step backwards on the 3km.  No front-end thump.

    • Sad 1