MN Transplant

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

For this storm, that is a NAMming around DC.  I like how the model R/S line stalls a bit at 18-19z before completely blowing past us.

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

18Z NAM even have any precip? 

The NAM has been bone dry so far.  Significant outlier.

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

In all honesty it looks a lot like the NAM. Go figure.

The NAM is really dry and weak.  The Euro is 8mb deeper and wetter.

925 temps at DCA at 00z:  +5 or +6

This is a bad run for 95 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

My snowboard is at 378.4251969 feet per the LiDAR map. 

Does that account for a close mow?

It is wild that this turned into a Saturday only event.

Just now, mattie g said:

Per the CMC on TT, it f'ing pours IMBY on Saturday evening at probably 34 degrees.

2” of rain just east of DC.  I’m ignoring this one.

Just now, clskinsfan said:

GGEM is sub 1000 at the mouth of the bay. Its beautiful. 

988 Cape May.  We toss.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

WxBell maps are friendlier so I'm gonna assume they've made the right call. I'll post when it wraps.

Snow maps are going to struggle on the boundary.  Soundings and QPF are the way to go.  I’m modestly happy with this run sitting on the western DC Beltway.

The column is holding on for dear life from 18 to 21z in the DC area.  It eventually falls, but there’s almost 0.6” precip by 21z.  Ratios would suck, but it would be a few inches of snow first in this scenario.

GFS isn’t terrible all things considered.  It is so dry coming in that we get solid evaporational cooling.  Precip totals are back up closer to an inch.

Forgetting the thermals for a second, the improvement in QPF from 12 to 18z is notable.  We are back over 1” region wide.

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Seriously?

Not worth fretting about.  Column is fine and heavy snow accumulates.  Our risk is track.

CoD has me at 15" 10:1, 10" Kucera, and 2" snow depth.  LOL

Rimed flakes and 39.0

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

It's great. Made me smile and laugh.

And yes, but they have no excuses this year, unlike the Os. They really need to get to the SB.

Oh yeah, poor Baltimore and their SB drought. 

2 hours ago, H2O said:

The squirrels are freaking everywhere.  My 6 and 18 month old pups are a handful on walks.  Some of the idiot squirrels run right in front of them.

6" for December puts me only a few inches below normal on the year.  As of December 10th I was still running last place over the past 10 years, but the three storms bumped me over 2016 and 2017.

On 12/26/2023 at 7:28 PM, RIC_WX said:

If you decide to build at Deep Creek, recognize that it’s a 3 year process that is difficult to expedite under almost any circumstances.  The contractors here are a very tight and closed network, and care more about steady work than starting or finishing anything on time.  And there is an acute labor shortage here unlike anything you have observed in the city or suburbs/exurbs.  Anything already finished and for sale usually will require significant renovations, especially if it was previously rented, and often carry significant price premiums making new construction appear competitive (until you actually try and build something).

We bought our lot in summer 2020, and had provisional occupancy (read: unfinished) in Summer of 2021.  I was an active participant in construction and did about 40% of the work myself and subcontracted as much as I could.  That said, there are still significant areas of my project that remain unfinished to this day which I think is typical for up here.  The pace of work has slowed considerably, mostly just due to demands on my time and the fatigue of a multi year build.  I still think many who I talk to would argue my outcome is on the better side of average balancing what I have invested and what we’ve managed to get finished thus far.

Does anyone just buy a lot and plop down a pre-fab house?

On 12/16/2023 at 4:49 PM, yoda said:

@MN Transplant and @aldie 22 aren't happy as Vikings fans

Evergreen post

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think this is overrated, at least wrt getting snow. If you’re rooting for some 1977 or 1994 type arctic outbreak it’s important. We had a snowy 2 week period in Jan 2019 when there was no snow cover around us. I remember this same debate. I just got 4” and held snow cover for 4 days!  It’s mid Dec. All we need is a slightly colder airmass in Jan-Feb for that to work for most here. I file this away with soil temps, sun angle, day before temps, pressure in Pittsburgh and other distractions that come up every year. 

‘09/10 was Canada’s warmest winter on record to that point.

12 hours ago, yoda said:

00z NAM has 60 to 70mph winds along DCA to BWI corridor 

NWS has gusts to 40mph.  That makes sense.

Casual 17 degree spread over a couple of miles

This would be a bummer for a lot of places that are used to a White Christmas.

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z NAM, winds are crazy Sunday night....

The coast may get interesting, but those SE winds rarely ever mix down inland.