MN Transplant

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Good lord what a terrible clickbait article.

I had to search for the actual press release.  Despite the hindcast successes, I am skeptical of a climate model for seasonal forecasts.

https://news.ucar.edu/132912/ncar-experimental-prediction-system-calls-super-el-nino-winter

3.33” since it started raining on Friday

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Need to get a climavision radar in Cumberland or Deep Creek.

I do wonder whether they are trying to be more gap-filling or whether they are aimed at denser coverage where there are people.

20 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Just landed in Minneapolis there's a mixture of depressed Vikings fans and happy Twins fans...weird vibe. It's warmer here than at home

Minnesota sports are a special breed of mediocrity.  The Vikings, Wolves, Wild, and Lynx (WNBA) all made the playoffs and had a first round exit in the past year.  Hard to imagine the Twins don’t pull the same feat.

3.03”.  Great stuff.

Heaviest rain rate of the day with this band

Squally when you get into a band.  Over 1.5” now.  Excellent soaker.

Kids-sized bowling ball

Nice steady rain and the treetops are swaying, but not much wind at the surface. 

On my way back from Colorado.  A super quick look at the models shows a difference in max gusts between the meso models (50mph) and globals (40mph).

20 minutes ago, GATECH said:

So what are people drinking tonight.  I am experimenting with some new fall bourbon cocktails.  I need a signature cocktail for thanksgiving and figured this would be a good weekend to practice.  Anyone have any favorites?

Shouldn’t people be drinking hurricanes?

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s not correct. Lee produced a large area of strong offshore winds all the way to the Carolina’s. Offshore winds created upwelling (I would need 10 pages to explain the process) it happened.

Friction.  Saved you 10 pages.

Great sky this morning.  Like something AI would come up with.

This morning’s harvest

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

At the game tonight. Beautiful weather. Let’s go O’s!

So many people are outside this evening.  The first perfect Friday night of the season.

Good thread 

https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1702378818693112236?s=46&t=bA1Os5w_10i9PfsurY28aw

On 9/12/2023 at 5:13 PM, H2O said:

The only way he comes back is due to ego.  40 yrs old and trying to come back from major injury to play at an elite level?  Nope.  He can go into a dark room and take ayahuasca for 6 months then retire. 

So, you're saying he's coming back.

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Some additional tidbits for severe weather. Please note these are conclusions from various presentations and not my own thoughts.

1.) Mesonets that capture solar irradiance (W/m^2) should visualize their data. Gradients in solar irradiance can illustrate CAPE gradients that will support convective initiation. NOTE: The Maryland mesonet will show this once stations are deployed.

2.) The SPC HREF performs poorly with mid level cloud erosion times in cool weather severe episodes, especially in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. The cause remains unknown and warrants further study. If the SPC HREF shows an area breaking out into the warm sector, and does not have support from the rest of the CAMS, consider disregarding the SPC HREF.

3.) When forecasting big hail events, the 12z RAOB closest to your location can be helpful in identifying an EML. This is especially true when comparing to special 18z RAOB because the 12z data will feature a comparatively cool surface temperature which lets a forecaster "see" the fingerprint of an EML advecting from Texas or the Mexico highlands.

The averaging period will be important for solar irradiance.

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

And Green Bay says goodbye to that 1st rounder next year.

Now I’m rooting for the Jets so that the 2nd rounder is as late as possible.

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Cousins is guaranteed to do Cousins things every game. Those are:

fumble while getting sacked and throw a INT at the worst time

I don't know if you saw the first fumble.  The RG (who is just awful) started to pull immediately and managed to jab his left arm into Kirk as he was collecting the snap.  So, our RG effectively stripped the QB near the red zone in a game we lost by 3.  Payback for all the good luck last year.

10 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

40-0 lmao

The two teams cited for completely over performing last year were the Giants and Vikes.  The Giants got manhandled and the Vikes made a comedy of errors to lose to a subpar Tampa teams.  Regression, baby!

I know we are (almost) all looking for more rain, but getting rid of the humidity by Thursday is going to feel so good.

Last three CoCoRaHS reports were all in the vicinity of 0.4”.  Officially 1.24” since it decided to start raining again.

50 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I live a little west of the 5.76" this is last 7 days total 

Really, that is just the last few days.  Map from the reports on the 8th, 9th, 10th.  Sorry, Culpeper.

0.15" this afternoon.  Basically nothing convective here.  I'll take the trailing stratoform equivalent but I hope we can tack on some more tonight/tomorrow.