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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    Wallops has 68kts at 305m. Woosh.
  2. MN Transplant
    Not sure where LWX's is, but here is Blacksburg:
  3. MN Transplant
    No kidding. I've been refreshing the Wyoming sounding site for a while now like an idiot because I forgot about the time change. Will be interesting to see IAD and Roanoke's.
  4. MN Transplant
  5. MN Transplant
    HRRR is handling the winds, and therefore the boundary layer, much better than the NAM to this point. Almost nothing has made it to the surface yet around DC. DCA's highest gust this morning is 23mph. Even the HRRR shows the gusts picking up by 10-11am, though, as we destabilize. ~1.6" so far here.
  6. MN Transplant
    Yup. Everyone should be charging their phones tonight.
  7. MN Transplant
    00z HRRR suggesting some isolated severe wind segments in the initial line that goes through early morning. 75+ mph
  8. MN Transplant
    No, this is an unusual wind setup for us. We get this serious southerly low level jet sometimes, but we generally have a boundary layer that prevents it from getting to the surface. This time there is all sorts of convection and the models think we’ll get it. Even the 18z HRRR which looks relatively unimpressive reflectivity-wise, gets gusts to ~60 mph.
  9. MN Transplant
    Yeah. What I’m assuming is that the euro and NAM are mixing down the big wind aloft during the line that comes through mid-to-late morning. So, not widespread and constant like March 2018. The euro then jacks up the CAPE following that line and has some semblance of storms in the early afternoon hours, but while the parameters are great, none of the models are throwing out any impressive storm signatures. Not sure why that is.
  10. MN Transplant
    12z euro still holds onto the widespread 60-70 mph gusts.
  11. MN Transplant
    The 3km NAM is so convoluted. You’ve got the warm front showers overnight, effectively ending by 8am. Then we get the leftover line of storms from MS/TN late morning. And after that the parameters peak and we got more storms firing early afternoon. That is a lot going on.
  12. MN Transplant
  13. MN Transplant
    The 00z NAM sounding for 18z Monday has a PDS Tornado classification per Dupage.
  14. MN Transplant
  15. MN Transplant
    Going to be a nice one today. Low 60s, slight breeze. 50.5 after a low of 37.6
  16. MN Transplant
    The Nest is in range now. The sim radar isn’t that interesting, probably because there are showers out front almost until initiation. However, the wind fields/sounding is wild. Wouldn’t take much to mix down (or spin up) something fun.
  17. MN Transplant
    18z NAM had 70kt+ winds at 900mb on Monday morning. That is really windy, really close to the surface.
  18. MN Transplant
    Flurries. Top-10 winter event!
  19. MN Transplant
    Might get a pre-midnight low tonight!
  20. MN Transplant
    I went grocery shopping this afternoon. Between Giant and Safeway I was able to get everything on my list except yeast. Fleishmann's really has cornered that market and that is the only thing that has been absent every time. In my experience so far, Target and BJs have been re-upping the TP supply more often. I haven't seen any of that in the grocery stores.
  21. MN Transplant
    Got a gust to 42 on my station, which probably means the actual was 45-50. Not bad. Very little rain with the overnight batch.
  22. MN Transplant
    The impulse kicking off our next set of storms appears to be in SE Ohio right now. Had 0.33" earlier with a one rumble of thunder.
  23. MN Transplant
    Outside, in Arizona, in summer. These games are all going to be starting at 11pm on the east coast.
  24. MN Transplant
    Lock it in.
  25. MN Transplant
    It seems like the NAM/HRRR are hitting upon three different rounds. Effectively, they are taking the "complex" near Pittsburgh and washing that out, but developing some early storms mostly south of DC. The 2nd round is after sundown, and that appears to be our best shot for some thunder. Then the front comes through in the early am hours. The NAM is more keen on the first round, while the HRRR generally likes the 2nd round better (nice cell coming down the Potomac on the 14z).
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