#2 is a massive part of this. The mostly unknowable question is whether the government response played a role. In other words, if business was allowed to go on as usual with minor restrictions, would we have seen: 1) more COVID cases, 2) more hospitalizations due to “life events” (eg. car crashes), 3) fewer cancellations of regular procedures, and 4) more people using ERs and hospitals for regular medical occurrences. And therefore, stressed hospital systems.