MN Transplant

VA Dept of Health http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/ edit - there is a drop down menu mid-page where you can change from hospitalizations to deaths

I don’t put any stock into flu death data. I think it is a convenient cause of death for many end-of-life situations. And they have to effectively guess at it anyway. This is dramatically different from the flu.

It is interesting that the common refrain is that COVID-19 is a killer of old people, when it appears that it is far less skewed that way than the flu. At least in Virginia. COVID-19: Flu deaths (modeled, flu-related) - 25k for people 65+, 8.5k under 65.

Not personally, but it really opens the eyes to how much of the economy is, for lack of a better term, optional. Nobody needs to go to restaurants, vacations, sporting events, concerts, etc. That is all part of the human experience, but it is truly non-essential.

What are seasonal influenza-related deaths? Seasonal influenza-related deaths are deaths that occur in people for whom influenza infection was likely a contributor to the cause of death, but not necessarily the primary cause of death. Does CDC know the exact number of people who die from seasonal flu each year? CDC does not know exactly how many people die from seasonal flu each year.

Of course, that's if we believe the flu number. For all of the discussion about coding COVID deaths, influenza has the same problem.

Groan. Peak wind is 22mph today. Only about 45 mph less than what the Euro gave me.

As an aside to the severe weather, just out the visible satellite to our west. W-E oriented horizontal rolls with N-S oriented terrain-induced gravity waves. Like a checkerboard.

I like how the end of the line is laying flat enough to not reach down to 66. Ah, well, another day.

I'm up to 76.1/70. Would like to see that Leesburg line build south, but not counting on it.

Interesting cell out front of the line in MoCo. Keep an eye on that.

And, sun ob.

That one is in really good range for TDCA.

Base velocity. Green is toward the radar, red is away. Ignore everything else. What you are looking for is a small spot where the greens and reds are enhanced and right next to each other (the couplet, as many call it).

Big drops, little wind at least over here in Falls Church. Only lost about two degrees. 68.0

Not in the same way. The synoptic winds stayed elevated here. Any storms we get could mix down good winds, but that will be only in a scattered sense. The post-frontal wind should be breezy, but not anything special.

That is a big watch box. edit for visual:

66.8 and steadily rising here. The NAM and Euro really busted on getting the winds to the surface this morning. I think the Icon was in better shape regarding that aspect.

PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1000.0 -12 927.0 654 17.0 -32.0 2 0.28 210 10 296.5 297.5 296.6 925.0 659 17.4 13.0 75 10.27 210 12 297.1 327.1 298.9 897.6 914 15.5 12.1 80 9.96 200 29 297.7 326.9 299.5 DP got screwed up and is affecting the calculations.

Wallops has 68kts at 305m. Woosh.

Not sure where LWX's is, but here is Blacksburg:

No kidding. I've been refreshing the Wyoming sounding site for a while now like an idiot because I forgot about the time change. Will be interesting to see IAD and Roanoke's.

HRRR is handling the winds, and therefore the boundary layer, much better than the NAM to this point. Almost nothing has made it to the surface yet around DC. DCA's highest gust this morning is 23mph. Even the HRRR shows the gusts picking up by 10-11am, though, as we destabilize. ~1.6" so far here.

Yup. Everyone should be charging their phones tonight.