
rcostell
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Everything posted by rcostell
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
rcostell replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
That was a crazy one (I was 5, but recall it vaguely in family discussion) in an area that gets many. That sandy soil drains so fast (and can be tough in spots to traverse ("sugar sand"!) but sits on the largest untapped aquifer east of the Mississippi! Its a unique, large area of the southern/central part of the State that is surprisingly (except at the edges, filling in) unpopulated. Radiates well in cold clear conditions, too. It can be 20 degrees here but 0 30 miles southeast, in the heart of the pines. Cool stuff! -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
rcostell replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Sir- I believe in a written, science/factual based forum like this one- thats its a good thing to call out personal blaming, factual inaccuracies or slander. If you 've seen a pattern of that- Thank you. I don't cotton up to BS. But there you go again- for the Ocean county fire, I used the word "contained" deliberately- as its latest given offical status was "30% contained". Thats not "Out of Control" (nor certainly out, either!) Good for you for observing that Southern California has a different weather pattern, climate and vegetation than the NJ Pine Barrens- I'm familiar as I spend lots of time in San Diego county- but have no idea why you brought that area into the dicussion. Fires )of all sizes) in the Pine Barrens are relatively common this time of year- not every year- and a part of the local ecology, and always have been, prior to the era of suppression. (Lots of scrub Oak leaf litter, pine needles and very sandy, porus soil make for a dry, fuel rich area- you can ask others who live here, or maybe Mr. Gorse, if you distrust me. I'm done so, you can get the last word in, if you'd like- as that seems important to you. -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
rcostell replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Good morning. You can call me Bob. I'm happy you apologized to Mr. Gorse for your remarks. Well deserved. That was the point of my comment that the mulch fire was not "major"- and especially that exaggeration of a fire caused by spontaneous combustion shouldn't be linked to NWS being negligent. Those were my only points. I see nowhere where I wrote those other things you linked me to. (As far as your attempts at "face- saving", above- everyone on this board knows we have a rainfall deficit, its been windy, and its fire season. I mentioned none of that- so don't imply I did. The fire near Jim Thorpe was preexisting my comments- and the Ocean County fire is "major", although contained. I grew up in the Pine Barrens- there are fires most years, especially during spring before leaf-out..its a neccessary part of the ecology here. Your proclivity towards exaggeration and blaming folks for non-existent issues is noted. Maybe stop trying to bite my ankles when you are already on the canvas. Its a bad look.) -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
rcostell replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
I agree with you 100% of course. My point was that the situation was being exaggerated and (non-drought) causal mechanism ignored- at the expense of our local NWS mets- who have enough "static" to deal with these days. -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
rcostell replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Mlulch can spontaneously combust- which the local firefighters say is what happened at that site. Its been smoldering for weeks. Nothing to do with NWS or weather, at all. Roger that? -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
rcostell replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Weren't you the same guy on here that said "mark my words" there was going to be major ice jam issues on the Lehigh this year? Maybe take a bit of a chill pill instead of disrespecting NWS Mets. Just a suggestion. -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
rcostell replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
A smoking mulch bed is a "major fire"? Really? -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
rcostell replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Great Shot! Below is closer to the storm, last evening about 7 PM in Haddon Heights. Just got clipped with about 1 minute of rain from that curtain seen in your image.. -
Sweet.. Massive view! Will be in Zermatt again this September and might hit it up. Heres a link to Chez Vrony. Its off the Sunnega lift. https://chezvrony.ch/wordpress/en/
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Chez Vrony? (what a place!)
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Some folks don't- agree with you. Even in this forum, science based that its' nature is- there are degrees of non-acceptance- lots of distractions. Its the decison makers or disrupters that really count in the long run.
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I respect and admire this forum (and your experience) and agree with your opinion. Hate to see you all not on same page with the science. "Chicken Little"? You can kiss my Irish ass.
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I see the problem as OUR earth is warming to the point of irrefutable atmospheric change that is now altering global processes and harming ecosystems with no cohesive plan to stop... while we argue about politics.
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But, again: The original post was too political/opinionated for this forum. No value added here. Lets follow the science. See my earlier post.
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Too political/opinionated for this forum. No value added here. Lets follow the science. See my earlier post.
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There's a bit more to the situation, in addition to cyclical change, of course. Theres "pre human" period of time...and "post human" period, ongoing. This link: https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/todays-climate-change-similar-natural-warming-between-ice-ages goes to an excellent short article from an equally excellent academic highr education source. It not only agrees with "natural climate cycles" that are in place as vehemently pointed out here (I agree, btw) AND accounts for another set of documented variables that is acting on natural ongoing cycles. Give it a 5 minute read and see how it summarizes our current (global) situation pretty well. Works?
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WRT the purpose of this thread- The definition of cyclical (Def. pretty evident on the internet) is not what I questioned- it was the "cyclical cycle" phrase- my head is spinning Also when you wrote " our"- do you mean Chester County, Pa.? (its only .00038 of a percent of the Earths surface so not a representative sample size to clutter up this thread... ) but forgive me if all the Chester County data being posted in this thread (AGAIN) is not indicative of what you are referencing.
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Q: In your world, what geographical area is "our"? What is a "cylical cycle"? "Thought it best" for whos benefit? Thanks for enlightening us...
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Sir/Ms- I've been around the world, been through a lot, seen a lot, and pretty sure I'm older than you so I'm fairly confident I'm a realist- not what you are referring to me as, above. The name callling can stop. "Unprecedented" is a real word, with real meaning. I chose it carefully. Did you even look at the video? (again, attached below) For your benefit- I took a little time to find a good example (there are many) that cleanly addressed your words in a post above: "Only if we can ever link climate change to any adverse real world weather events." The video provides actual, visual evidence of exactly that. Of course you can focus on parsing words and personal opinion and a bit of name calling- its not relevant or pleasant- but within your right. My opinion is that perhaps you should get out of your "bunker" in Chester County more- look around and observe ground truth not from behind a computer but in a larger, non-digital setting. Ask yourself why you are online, labelling someone you have never met- at 2.30 AM on a Sunday morning as opposed to not. https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=aiden+robbins+danger+in+alps&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:807a5e76,vid:R0NGujTF1Xw,st:0
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Heres a video link that documents climate change manifesting weather changes that have and are causing unprecedented, "non-cyclical" and unrepeatable physical changes to an area and its mountains (millions of years old) I have visited and yes, seen with my own eyes. It checks all the boxes you set out and name-call others who believe what they see. The world is much larger than Chester County, I'm afraid... https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=aiden+robbins+danger+in+alps&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#
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OK- Understood. Here's a "link" to a respected institution of higher learning that elaborates on exactly where you are "coming from". Hope you find it of value. https://environment.yale.edu/news/article/link-between-climate-change-and-extreme-weather
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On the subject of drought- I'm 66 and have never seen it this dry, this long. Even the natural bogs down near Chatsworth in the Pines are bone dry.
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Much obliged Mike. I can give it another 24 hours or so before making the call. Appreciate your thoughts.
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Mike- Always appreciate your time and comments in this forum.. Hope I'm not imposing on asking your opinion on the likely hood that a 9 PM Tuesday evening flight out of PHL (to Madrid- retirement vacation) will be cancelled? Too soon to hypothesize at this time? Much obliged on any comments on trends... I'd have to pull the trigger later tomorrow on reschedule...
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Calm down. One day you might look back at the data thats being collected at a macro level and have regrets on your current isolated and demeaning positions taken on this board.