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snowmaker

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Everything posted by snowmaker

  1. snowmaker
    In my opinion which isn’t much, things right now look like west and middle Tennessee’s best chance at winter weather is Tuesday. After that rain Sunday it looks like it may be cold enough for a decent window of frozen on Tuesday. The next slug of moisture for Wednesday and wednesday night looks a little warm right now. Freezing line and frozen precip looks just north of Ohio River area. Of course with arctic boundaries at 4-5 days away things can still change.
  2. snowmaker
    Next week does not look boring weather wise that is for sure no matter what happens.
  3. snowmaker
    Can’t wait to see what that Canadian run produced. That 31st-2nd Period looked like a nasty looking winter storm for Tennessee on this run. 0z gfs is a colder run through the 2nd but most frozen looks to be in Kentucky most of the duration. But it did trend colder in that timeframe but warms up quite a bit as the run goes. It will be interesting to see the ensembles of all modeling tomorrow.
  4. snowmaker
    And that is the main thing no doubt. The ensembles carry a ton more weight than a individual control run. Especially at this range out at 6-8 days.
  5. snowmaker
    I am not sweating the storm at all based on the GFS. I am just amazed at how bad the run to run consistency has been with the GFS. I think most realize it’s just one deterministic run but the lack of consistency in the gfs is noted.
  6. snowmaker
    They are, and what is crazy the old GFS was on a good roll when they took it out of service. The upgrade has been like a fast ball pitcher with no control, from one pitch to the next it could be anywhere.
  7. snowmaker
    I was on a Midwest forum during this past storm that cut to our northwest. Most on there said the euro and Canadian handled that storm the best. Of course that is no guarantee how any of them will handle the next one. But I would probably lean euro right now but like to digest all 3 because a lot of times it’s a split the difference type of deal to some degree.
  8. snowmaker
    Yes the euro and Canadian seem to not have as wild fluctuations. Not that they don’t but the GFS seems to be leading in extreme run to run changes. At least it did have a boundary of precip in that timeframe even if the temps were way warm and the precip was well south.
  9. snowmaker
    Yes that run looks odd suppressed but warmer in that time frame.
  10. snowmaker
    No doubt you can’t take every control run to heart at 7-10 days out. I look for when models kind of latch on to the same general idea. Hopefully in the next 2-3 days we will start seeing models latch on to where this arctic boundary will set up. Looking at ensembles for that time frame is the key right now for better guidance. Like Carver was saying the boundary could be anywhere from the Ohio River to the Plateau or through central Mississippi and over the mountains. Time will tell.
  11. snowmaker
    I agree models have hitting on this timeframe. Just exactly where the boundary will be is the key. The 1st-3rd timeframe is for sure one to watch as it is in the 7-8 day range.
  12. snowmaker
    Euro is colder past 162 and another disturbance comes across 24 hours later.
  13. snowmaker
    And actually generally held on to a system around the 1st as well.
  14. snowmaker
    It’s crazy the run to run inconsistency especially on the gfs. Glad it’s not just me.
  15. snowmaker
    Yes I just saw the Canadian run, that would be a major ice storm if taken verbatim. I saw euro 12z on pivotal. Oops sorry it is not up to date yet. My bad.
  16. snowmaker
    12Gfs storms not there and temps are warmer around the first week of feb than before. Of course it will change. Maybe it will come back. Just hope the can kicking isn’t starting again. Looking for something to show up on modeling and stick. This storm to our northwest has been there for over a week and hasn’t hardly budged.
  17. snowmaker
    That would be a good winter snowstorm right there!
  18. snowmaker
    Them 2 storms in the long range are in a good spot for the long range I think. As it sits it isn’t real good for west tenn and I am on far northwest flank. It doesn’t look like it would take much of a northwest jog in the scenario to put much more of Tennessee in play. Just 50-70 miles. Of course I realize that is just one control run at a very long range so I am just talking hypothetically. I do like how the last few runs all models are trending colder.
  19. snowmaker
    Yep them overrunning events can sneak up on you sometimes.
  20. snowmaker
    Oh I totally agree on that.
  21. snowmaker
    18z GFS was a warm run into February. Back and forth.
  22. snowmaker
    I am naturally a positive person, but it seems like our area is being teased a lot only for things to back off closer in time. East Tennessee higher elevations may get in on these next 2 systems a little. But west and middle just can’t seem to hit the right combo so far, maybe if I step away from model watching for a while things will change. Plenty of time but I would like to at least get 1 decent system in the next 10-15 days. If it comes down to waiting on March it gets even more iffy usually and hard to pull off a good week or 10 day pattern of winter.
  23. snowmaker
    Oh man let things come together! ☃️
  24. snowmaker
    This is what I was thinking about if we do transition toward Nino at the same time of feeling effects of SSW. I know things with the ssw can go the other direction but that combo could be good. But I hope whatever winter weather we get that by the first of April we break warm. I love winter and even a great march snowstorm but as March ends I am ready for spring.
  25. snowmaker
    Question for folks more knowledgeable than me, what effects do we expect to see from this ssw have on our weather 2-3 weeks down the road? I know they can lend different results or impacts. I guess I am wondering if it will have a major impact one way or the other. Just curious on thoughts.
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