Ahoff

Yeah, I wish I kept better track of how each model performed. Some people it seems know what every model did every day leading up to every storm in a season and previous seasons, lol. So, I'm not sure what model is superior this year. Hopefully, this is a wacky run.

Some major things I'm seeing in Euro and GFS, I looked at both from the 0z run, since that is the common time I could find. At hr. 96 the Euro has the L on the MS/AL line at the Gulf Coast. I would think with a low in that spot the storm wouldn't cut as much, but not what is depicted. GFS is just north of Atlanta. At hr 102 the Euro is actually very close to the GFS at hr. 96, it's just throwing more warmth to our area. GFS at the 102 has moved into Central NC. Hr. 108 is the major divergent point, Euro rams the low just west of Wheeling. GFS is off the Jersey Shore. Quite a few Hundred miles. The highs on the models look actually similar in placement. Euro is stronger, so not really sure why it would cut if the GFS doesn't. Maybe because High is too far east? Current GFS-Para run (0z) is hybrid of GFS and Euro. drives low to central WV, then transfers to Chesapeake Bay. CMC stays south of us, and all snow, goes from S. WV to off the Jersey Shore and then Cape Cod at hr. 108. Icon is all snow, well of Jersey Shore. NavGem is well off the coast Consistency, at 108 on th 0z for today Euro as stated is west of Wheeling with the L. 12z yesterday it had the L just south of Charlotte for the same timestamp, with the prior shiot looking similare to today. 0z yesterday had the L near GA/SC border. 12z on 2/10 had the low in Atlanta. So, the Euro was fairly consistent until this run. Hopefully that's a one off and if corrects to where it was, if it's a trend it was a massive correction. Consistency for the GFS: 0z today, L in central NC. 12z yesterday the L was in Charlotte. 0z yesterday, L near Raleigh. 12z on 2/10, L was in south central Ohio. GFS has stayed consistently south the last few runs, but was Euro-esque before. They seemingly flipped. Does this mean GFS had the right idea and is getting lost, or the Euro went crazy for a run or two? We'll see kind of interesting.

I don't like the Euro. It makes me nervous that it is the one showing ice and rain mostly, still time though. GFS looks great. But would the High to the north allow the low to cut like that? We'll see I guess.

Well technically we're under 5 days from the start.

Chances look pretty decent for snow Mon.-Tues. Basically aiming right at us.

Their point and click disagrees, lol!

NWS, at this time is calling for all snow Mon-Tues.

It's looking nice.

Ah, makes sense. Hopefully, it is over done. Sounds pretty good for the Euro though, I'd take it. Also, looks like the next system the Euro has after Tuesday (Thurs.-Fri.) has come east and south from the previous run. Better for us, but the ice it depicts is crazy throughout the state.

I know it can happen, but I'd bet it's fairly rare. I'm with you on believing if it is that cold with precip it will likely be snow. It just seems hard to believe to me that that much warmth up above wouldn't mix down at least somewhat to the surface.

Sorry, what's WTOD?

12z GFS leaves a bit to be desired on the Mon-Tues storm. It still looks like an improvement, but need a slight tick south still, but plenty of time. It's showing temps in the teens, but freezing rain straddling the area. North of downtown is looking much better than south right now. Also, it keeps the low in GA and the Carolinas, before exiting the Virginia coast, I find it hard to believe it would pump that much warmth into the 850 level from that far south. It's a nearly perfect track at this point, so we'll see.

Can't begin to worry about rain with that storm before we get through these multiple other threats. As other have said some of these systems have gone west and trend back east. May just be the trend this year, so we can't take late week storms next week with any seriousness right now. Just a very active pattern.

Looks like the radar is drying up already.

I’m not worried as much about that. I just don’t want rain if they get 10” of snow. It’s just be weird.

I will say despite how great this winter has been, if Dallas gets a lot of snow and cold and we get rain from the same storm I will be pissed, lol!

Snowing hard right now.

For what, tonight?

Would the upper atmosphere get that warm with the cold air entrenched?

Wasn't really supposed to start until 4 anyway.

I meant like how accurate is it.

How good is the GFS-Para?

No, I know that, I was just wondering what that snow would look like. Verbatim on that run the 850 was the only level that was that warm, but still below freezing here, so keeping the snow falling in Allegheny County. Just wonder if the snow would be wetter, or drier and fluffier with warmer atmosphere, and really cold surface. Don't think I've seen that big of a difference in air temp and upper air temp.

That storm early next week looks great on the GFS. Some really heavy rates and a temperature of 17! Though the 850 level was close to freezing here, above in the ridges, wonder what that would do to the snow? Would it be wet at 17 degrees and immediately freeze, or would it still be fluffy and dry? At hr 162 on the GFS our 6 hr snow accumulation is 7.2"!

By the same metric we could question January 1977 at around an 11 degree average, as the coldest month of all time by around 6 degrees. Now there are people who can corroborate that as many were alive then, and it is an actual temperature. How do we know September 1881 wasn't that warm? We've seen very warm Septembers, maybe that was on steriods. It can happen. Plus that September recorded a few 100 degree days, which has never happened since, oh except in 1884. I also find it interesting that it seems we don't see highs that are as extreme as they used to be. Looking through the records it seems years ago we had yearly maxes that were vhigher than today. Taking each decade since 1940 Most are relatively close, with the 40s having the highest decadal mean high at 95, the 2000s are the lowest at 91. The last decade (2010s) was 93. 40s were 95, 50s were 94, 60s were 94, 70s were 92, 80s were 94, 90s were 94, 00s were 91 and 10s were 93. While they're all close, as averages it seems significant that our highs don't seem to be getting quite as high as they used to.