Ahoff

Good trends today.

Better chances still.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/relentless-wintry-weather-to-bombard-much-of-us-into-next-week/898575 Looks like Accuweather is leaning toward more snow.

Interesting tidbit. Everyday except the 3rd this month as had at least a trace of snow. and 26 of the last 29 days have had at least a trace of snow. Great pattern. Also, this...from NWS.

Depends on where you are. Basically southern Allegheny Co. on North is all snow.

Yes, 12z GFS holds on, well see what the Euro cooks up. Does it correct to the GFS, or stay where it is?

Over in the Central forum they are talking about riding the line. I imagine that has to help us to some degree, and not in every case, but if we get a low tracking east of us we're in a better spot. If it is an west to east track, then we have more things to worry about. All of this is fwiw.

Well, yes, lol. I'd definitely want that record, but wouldn't be upset if that was it too.

If we get two back to back that big it could be 75 the rest of winter.

Good look at day 4 from the NWS. Also, every day from day 4-7 has at least a chance of .25" of liquid snow.

Beautiful look on the NAM of course...hr. 84. Rooting for the Weather Channel to win out they have Monday with 6-11" of snow. Mostly overnight, and an additional inch on Tuesday.

Only after it flirted with the idea too, it had a couple -17 and -18 degree runs as well, lol.

Yeah, I wish I kept better track of how each model performed. Some people it seems know what every model did every day leading up to every storm in a season and previous seasons, lol. So, I'm not sure what model is superior this year. Hopefully, this is a wacky run.

Some major things I'm seeing in Euro and GFS, I looked at both from the 0z run, since that is the common time I could find. At hr. 96 the Euro has the L on the MS/AL line at the Gulf Coast. I would think with a low in that spot the storm wouldn't cut as much, but not what is depicted. GFS is just north of Atlanta. At hr 102 the Euro is actually very close to the GFS at hr. 96, it's just throwing more warmth to our area. GFS at the 102 has moved into Central NC. Hr. 108 is the major divergent point, Euro rams the low just west of Wheeling. GFS is off the Jersey Shore. Quite a few Hundred miles. The highs on the models look actually similar in placement. Euro is stronger, so not really sure why it would cut if the GFS doesn't. Maybe because High is too far east? Current GFS-Para run (0z) is hybrid of GFS and Euro. drives low to central WV, then transfers to Chesapeake Bay. CMC stays south of us, and all snow, goes from S. WV to off the Jersey Shore and then Cape Cod at hr. 108. Icon is all snow, well of Jersey Shore. NavGem is well off the coast Consistency, at 108 on th 0z for today Euro as stated is west of Wheeling with the L. 12z yesterday it had the L just south of Charlotte for the same timestamp, with the prior shiot looking similare to today. 0z yesterday had the L near GA/SC border. 12z on 2/10 had the low in Atlanta. So, the Euro was fairly consistent until this run. Hopefully that's a one off and if corrects to where it was, if it's a trend it was a massive correction. Consistency for the GFS: 0z today, L in central NC. 12z yesterday the L was in Charlotte. 0z yesterday, L near Raleigh. 12z on 2/10, L was in south central Ohio. GFS has stayed consistently south the last few runs, but was Euro-esque before. They seemingly flipped. Does this mean GFS had the right idea and is getting lost, or the Euro went crazy for a run or two? We'll see kind of interesting.

I don't like the Euro. It makes me nervous that it is the one showing ice and rain mostly, still time though. GFS looks great. But would the High to the north allow the low to cut like that? We'll see I guess.

Well technically we're under 5 days from the start.

Chances look pretty decent for snow Mon.-Tues. Basically aiming right at us.

Their point and click disagrees, lol!

NWS, at this time is calling for all snow Mon-Tues.

It's looking nice.

Ah, makes sense. Hopefully, it is over done. Sounds pretty good for the Euro though, I'd take it. Also, looks like the next system the Euro has after Tuesday (Thurs.-Fri.) has come east and south from the previous run. Better for us, but the ice it depicts is crazy throughout the state.

I know it can happen, but I'd bet it's fairly rare. I'm with you on believing if it is that cold with precip it will likely be snow. It just seems hard to believe to me that that much warmth up above wouldn't mix down at least somewhat to the surface.

Sorry, what's WTOD?

12z GFS leaves a bit to be desired on the Mon-Tues storm. It still looks like an improvement, but need a slight tick south still, but plenty of time. It's showing temps in the teens, but freezing rain straddling the area. North of downtown is looking much better than south right now. Also, it keeps the low in GA and the Carolinas, before exiting the Virginia coast, I find it hard to believe it would pump that much warmth into the 850 level from that far south. It's a nearly perfect track at this point, so we'll see.

Can't begin to worry about rain with that storm before we get through these multiple other threats. As other have said some of these systems have gone west and trend back east. May just be the trend this year, so we can't take late week storms next week with any seriousness right now. Just a very active pattern.