Ahoff

Come May I’m ready for heat.

Officially dropped to 2 this morning.

NWS is not too enthusiastic about tonight's snow.

Yes, at least 3, we can all breath a sigh of relief, lol.

Yes, but it’s again not impossible clearly. I just feel the incredible averageness of this year is more notable than anything.

I'm not the one worried about having no extreme cold, lol. I'm just pointing out some interesting weather facts.

You are really hung up on these extreme temperatures. This has been an exceptionally un-extreme temperature winter in both directions. Just 1 day has reached the 60s from December-today. Likely we won’t reach 60 before February ends. There are only 8 seasons where Dec.-Feb. did not reach 60 at all (1878-1879, 1925-1926, 1935-1936, 1963-1964, 1969-1970, 1981-1982, 1986-1987 and 2009-2010). That kind of shows how anomalous only one 60 degree days is in those three months (and it was a low 60s day). You are very stuck on the lack of extreme cold, which itself is odd, but you are missing the lack of extreme warmth also. It is just a weirdly average winter temperature season.

That’s what I was talking about.

I don't know. Looks "warmish". Has temperatures above freezing, and in the mid to upper 30s.

I hope it gets below 8 tonight, just so we can move on from it, lol.

It hasn't hit 40 degrees in 23 days, and it will extend to at least 26 days. I wonder what the record is for staying below 40 consecutively?

Looks not too bad, but too bad it's at the end of the run. We're potentially looking at temperatures near 40 around that time, we'll likely have to deal with mixing and rain to overcome. At least at this time. Might not be as clean as the NAM wants to make it right now.

Picked up another coating overnight.

We've picked up 1.3" so far.

I believe Ron Smiley said yesterday that most of the snow would accumulate Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. So, we shpould be ramping up later.

Pretty good band right now.

Well, they were over 6" earlier, so...wrong direction.

It is odd, because they bumped the range from 2-3" to 3-4", added some southern counties into advisories, and the point and click has Thursday as snow and Thursday night as heavy snow, but nothing. They are truly baffling. To me snow and heavy snow for most of tomorrow would indicate at least advisory level snow. Very interesting, but really not surprising.

Mesos are better for close range.

I certainly wouldn't have said that, lol. We were still in a decent space for a few inches yesterday, hell the snow all day yesterday amounted to a sneaky 1.6". 2" should be pretty easy to achieve, but anything can happen.

Yeah, that seems odd to me. I imagine they are erring on the side of caution with crazy totals, which is what made the initial 6-8" call they had all the more crazy. The mesos look good to me. They're not spitting out high amounts, but looking at temperatures we should have some higher ratios that can boost the totals. Also, for as long as the NAM 12km and NAM 3km have it snowing the lower totals seem too low. I don't know, we'll see.

Well NAM wasn’t too bad, so that’s good.

NAM 12km doesn't look bad. 3-6" on 10:1, so I'd imagine bumping it up with Kuchera, as temps don't really get above 27 or 28 through the duration. At least NAM has start time within a day at this point. NAM 3km, also pretty good at 4-5" at 10:1. Temperatures creep to near 30, but never quite make it. And SREFs up to almost 6.5". We are still in this. The short range look good, and I'd say we're in short range as this is to start right after midnight.

By mid-March, I'm in Summer mode, lol. Bring on the warmth.

I feel they're pretty good too. I think they are just a blend of many different models.