Ahoff

SREF is around 5" average, and the mean temperature doesn't get above 32 the entire storm.

Weird that this would go west and they'd trend the other east. I guess usually storms trend east one after another.

We have a decent snowpack, so it should mitigate extremely warm weather.

See I disagree with 17-18. It had a cold snowy December, and white Christmas. Very cold and snowy January, even had you below 0 weather. A cold and snowy March, and even 7" of snow in April (which I actually didn't care for at that point). Febraury was the only issue of the winter.

Sure, but looking at the details of the year, 2nd snowiest December ever, after years of awful Decembers. Whitest Christmas of all time, when a white Christmas is rare. A January, that despite not be overtly wintery was cold (overall), and didn't reach 50 at all, and had near normal snow. A February, that half way through has reached average snow amounts, has not yet reached 40, likely won't for a few more days at least, and has had at least 4 inches of snow on the ground the whole month. And overall, a season that featured, as of now 4 storms of more than 6". Probably the first time in a while that's happened. We could see a season with 50", but snow that melts the next day. Looks like by your analysis that's a good year. I wouldn't qualify it that way. This will be one of my great winters. not the best (that was 09-10). But great for sure.

I don't know, but still things can drift SE again, I'm sure it's happened numerous times before.

Pretty much every threat this year has been a success. None of us can deny that. A miss like this was inevitable at some point, it happens at a minimum once a season. There's still more snow to be had over the next few weeks I'm sure. We've had a great season. I'm happy. Of course I do want more snow, lol. I'd love 10 more inches tomorrow, but I'm content overall.

So we definitely don't "have it" until it starts falling. The trends are bad, no denying, but it's also still not locked in. There's really no reason it doesn't trend back at the last few hours and there's no reason it doesn't trend us into a dry slot for most of the storm.

Also their snow map has downgraded to 4-6".

Oof. Let’s hope Euro holds again.

Gotcha. Didn't know that was it's tendency. Good to know for the future.

So, just to be clear, you're thinking it's just a one off run?

GFS showed it once on an off run hour. We'll likely be able to tell a little more looking at the 0z run of it.

We had bad trends correcting to final day good trends for the mid December storm, if I'm remembering correctly. Let's hope that's what we see.

Sorry, kind of misread, lol.

Okay, yes that was a bad storm, and a bad miss, in a bad season. This season has been going our way. Let's stay positive. If it misses us, so be it, we still have gotten 50" so far this season.

Lol. I always did like Jeff, he is just waaaaay too conservative.

And not conservative for the sake of being conservative, there is thought and you can see he really takes all models into account.

I'll take it. Ron Smiley is pretty good. His totals are fairly accurate.

Highest totals are here, sothat's all we can ask for.

Exactly it goes back and forth. i imagine we should be starting to shift to the Mesos at this point or very soon.

One run. Let’s chill out.

There it is.

Wouldn't these events when they occur, come with a SE Ridge, due to that insane trough in the Plains? We don't seem to have any type of strong ridge to cut the storm.

Whatever we end up with, it has put nearly the entire state of TEXAS in winter advisories. I wonder if something like that has ever happened before?