Ahoff

I heard someone say a foot on Saturday night.

At least it would be cold, lol!

You're just super pleasant to read posts from, lol.

The NAM was not dead on that far out. It was a great looking storm until around 48 hrs.

It’s not the storm being in warm air it seems as much as the low going to our west, to naturally put us in the warm sector where warm is is basically the only solution.

Could be one of the better busts from the models and NWS. Anyway, already freezing mist/drizzle here. So, I see how this is going to go. Very little snow, and much more ice.

Yeah, this one was a beaut at 84, and now...well, lol.

I don’t know what to tell you? My phone’s weather app, which I think runs off of TWC, keeps it all snow tomorrow on the hourly.

Why would going further west help? If it goes further west wouldn’t it be harder for the next one to come east enough?

Well they were saying up to .2” of ice early, if we trend less snow, I imagine more ice is on the table. Why can’t we just leave it as is?

I know why can't there be a 1950 or 1993 redo? Never saw a storm like those, so I'd like to experience it.

Pretty significant shift considering where we currently sit. One more move like that, in that direction and it's all good.

SREF is around 5" average, and the mean temperature doesn't get above 32 the entire storm.

Weird that this would go west and they'd trend the other east. I guess usually storms trend east one after another.

We have a decent snowpack, so it should mitigate extremely warm weather.

See I disagree with 17-18. It had a cold snowy December, and white Christmas. Very cold and snowy January, even had you below 0 weather. A cold and snowy March, and even 7" of snow in April (which I actually didn't care for at that point). Febraury was the only issue of the winter.

Sure, but looking at the details of the year, 2nd snowiest December ever, after years of awful Decembers. Whitest Christmas of all time, when a white Christmas is rare. A January, that despite not be overtly wintery was cold (overall), and didn't reach 50 at all, and had near normal snow. A February, that half way through has reached average snow amounts, has not yet reached 40, likely won't for a few more days at least, and has had at least 4 inches of snow on the ground the whole month. And overall, a season that featured, as of now 4 storms of more than 6". Probably the first time in a while that's happened. We could see a season with 50", but snow that melts the next day. Looks like by your analysis that's a good year. I wouldn't qualify it that way. This will be one of my great winters. not the best (that was 09-10). But great for sure.

I don't know, but still things can drift SE again, I'm sure it's happened numerous times before.

Pretty much every threat this year has been a success. None of us can deny that. A miss like this was inevitable at some point, it happens at a minimum once a season. There's still more snow to be had over the next few weeks I'm sure. We've had a great season. I'm happy. Of course I do want more snow, lol. I'd love 10 more inches tomorrow, but I'm content overall.

So we definitely don't "have it" until it starts falling. The trends are bad, no denying, but it's also still not locked in. There's really no reason it doesn't trend back at the last few hours and there's no reason it doesn't trend us into a dry slot for most of the storm.

Also their snow map has downgraded to 4-6".

Oof. Let’s hope Euro holds again.

Gotcha. Didn't know that was it's tendency. Good to know for the future.

So, just to be clear, you're thinking it's just a one off run?

GFS showed it once on an off run hour. We'll likely be able to tell a little more looking at the 0z run of it.