Yeah there's no right or wrong on this one. I track these things out of fun and try and see how accurate I can be, but when the NWS has a big forecast blow up on them I feel a lot better.
I'm no expert but it seemed like a deeper/more negative trough with more energy held back led to a much more amped system. That allowed it to pull in more warm air while also tossing the snow further NW. It's just our climate here in central ohio.
Boy this one really blew up in our face for the Ohio guys. Glad to see Indy getting the goods. Can't believe it's been since 2007 that y'all got a foot.
One sliver of hope for those along and SE of I-71 is that to my untrained eye the meso obs make the high look a tad stronger than some of the high-res models. It's pretty close to the nam however.