.
That's after the cold air crashes in and flips you back to snow. Here's for the part that has you mixing. It's right on the edge. These soundings are in celcius so you'd want 3-4 degrees F colder to be comfortable.
Well hopefully the nam doesn't verify or else you're looking at 3-5 inches. In all honesty it's all model noise to me at this point. First round of snow will be on your doorstep in a few hours anyways.
Track has changed slightly but the big difference has been it becoming a lot more amped. Also, most models definitely show a more significant push of warm air.
I'm a bit more optimistic than I was earlier. I'm 12 hours from snow entering my area so models don't mean as much as they did yesterday. Even if this "busts" it's still a significant snow here.