Gino27

Yeah it’s another gfs vs. everything model extravaganza. With how much the mid-Atlantic system changed within the last 48 hours we’ll see how things settle by Tuesday or so.

Same look on the euro. Still we track…

Might happen. OOZ gfs erased any progress. First wave of energy sticks around forever and suppresses the daylights out of our signal. Extra frustrating given how close this is to being SOMETHING in this dismal winter.

We need some separation between waves. The better runs has that first bit of energy well out of the way and not suppressing the one we’re interested in

Dropped again. This thing is a real headache lol

I love the way it looks on 500 vort, but I'm afraid it took a step toward CMC and GFS

I'm afraid we got the ol 150 hour headfake

Most of us are in a good spot between the spread of Euro/EPS and GFS/GEFS given their typical biases. Modeling has still be terrible outside of 84 hours so I expect big changes still

Euro comes way NW and puts the mix line on the wrong side of I-71 for a lot of us. Not sure if it's an amped bias or if we're in for another rainer.

Looks like the 2/15 sleet storm from last February. Still a long way to go.

It brought it back but with very different timing. Hard to believe what it's doing given the big system ahead of it. It is nice to see euro support from 12z however.

Models have a few things to be looking forward to in the medium range time: breaking down of the SE ridge, multiple waves of energy coming across to the east, and cold air in place. Thing is we're still gonna have to thread the needs to get snow imo.

Heh...

What is a snow?

Sure looks like we could see a widespread dusting or maybe an inch. Ratios will be on our side but dry air will be hard to overcome.

Snowed fairly hard here at OSU. Had a coating on the grass but melted quickly. Loved the mood flakes!

Somehow managed 2.88" out of this thing. Thought for sure the majority of it would be north of me, 4.36" monthly total now.

There's definitely a mixed bag of factors to deliberate about this winter for our area. Given this will be a 2nd year nina, there aren't very consistent analogs to compare from this standpoint. Obviously 2011-2012 was godawful, and that type of winter is certainly a possibility. Most of the other 2nd year nina's were close to, or just below average snow. In terms of what we can see developing now, there appears to be a SSW either ongoing or staring soon. This should lead to a weaker than normal PV overall, but it's clearly too early to how this will impact us. Another factor I'm not as familiar with is the cooling in the NPAC region. I've seen some mets point this out as a red flag for the east coast, but I'm not sure how it could affect us. Overall I think this winter will be warmer than normal with probably less than average snow, but not a complete torch/snoozer. Maybe Columbus will finally break out of it's "big storm" slump.

We had several inches of snow in late April last year

Seems like both euro and gfs want to bring the freezer back at some point.

Winter is trying to make it's annual comeback in April. Hopefully it doesn't stick around through May like last year.

ILN seems to think it's possible. Their watch is for gusts to 65 after the front and the AFD states, " The wind fields -- both in magnitude and expanse -- are concerning. The LL directional and speed shear is notable, yielding hodographs are long and somewhat curved. The main limiting factor for severe potential will be the lack of instability rooted near the surface, which may be rather limited except /just/ along/immediately ahead of and east of the actual sfc low track itself. This would support an environment where the greatest severe threat would exist immediately near/east of the sfc low track, which current model consensus would place mainly near/west of the I-75 corridor. This, of course, is entirely dependent on the track of that sfc low and the degree to which we can attain SB destabilization in the wake of afternoon activity. The profile will be very saturated, but very energetic. If even a little bit of SB-instby is realized, it would not take much at all for stronger cores to translate down some /very/ strong wind to the sfc."

Good times in here. Would y'all want an Ohio severe thread, or is there no interest?

This is part of what gets me. I started following the weather around 2008 and the 2008-2015 period had some pretty epic winters. In that sense I think we're all a bit spoiled.