NorthHillsWx

Add to that- with the NS low moving out sooner, it actually shows a 1031 HP in a favorable location with CAD signature showing. This isn’t a terrible look at range

Small changes but actually positive in the broader scale: low is slightly more amped, less suppression, GLL slides by sooner allowing better thermals. Still not going to cut it but does look slightly better

Probably won’t matter much but GFS is much more consolidated with the southern stream energy over Texas this run

While I agree, that period around last Christmas qualifies as a true pattern change. We just got unlucky there, but a week mostly below freezing is impressive for anywhere in the Carolina’s. This season didn’t feature anything I would consider to be a pattern change. The “cold blast” in January was essentially a frontal passage that flipped right back to AN, there was transient cold nothing locked in. You bring up a good point though: what is a pattern change? What are the minimum qualifications to say the pattern has changed or would you consider this January just a cold snap within the same pattern we were stuck in? I lean the latter. For me, a pattern change needs these qualifications: 1) altered H5 orientation across country 2) retention or addition of SER 3) either strengthening or weakening of STJ and/or NS You can throw in blocking, the state of the PAC, MJO, or many other indices but imo those 3 variables dictate sensible weather here and must all be altered to constitute a pattern “change” vs a blip within a set pattern. I don’t know if you can throw a time qualifier in there as well, such as H5 state must last at least 72 hours or something along those lines, but I could hear that argument as well

Gotta say, Brad P kinda nailed this period. He was one of the only Mets to say this time period wasn’t going to work out well in advance while Most were hyping a pattern change. Not sure if he just got lucky or not but emphatically saying this period wouldn’t produce winter weather was a good call at range in hindsight

Our winter now runs Dec-Jan. February is spring. More 60’s and 70’s than days in the 50’s. I bet we end up with more frosts from November than we do this entire month

Per 0z GFS, we reach freezing exactly 1 night through the entire run during this backloaded Nino February. Then we are firmly into spring

We need a volcano or maybe even an asteroid strike to break this pattern

it’s crazy to think that if we don’t get snow before Jan 22 of next year, most on this board will have gone a full 3 years without measurable snow. With our last pre-Jan snow being 2018, odds are highly suggestive that will be tested

As for global warming, sea surface temps are smashing records every year in the Atlantic. Blame it on what you want but that’s the truth. I think that impacts 2 things: 1) SER becomes semi-permanent 2) Thermals with coastal storms are frequently messed up more so than past analogs for similar tracks would indicate Take this weeks storm in New England. It it literally passing over the 40/70 benchmark in their peak climo, and thermals in NYC and most coastal areas are going to struggle. Perfect track New England systems shouldn’t struggle that much, though thankfully for them, the system may be dynamic enough to overcome poor lower levels

I think the biggest issue is a simple one, we haven’t been able to lock in a favorable HP at all. The NS keeps obliterating every strong high that tries to establish itself regardless of blocking. Believe it or not, we don’t need pure arctic air to snow or get wintry wx east of the mountains. CAD has become a thing of the past, and those storms are our most frequent. Yes we are all searching for the miller A unicorn without thermal issues, but the vast majority of our wintry weather historically has come from miller B mixed bags and overrunning events. Pure Arctic air looks good on paper and long range models but it usually leads to suppression or transient cold shots without a New England high established

Wish there was a “love” button on the reactions. Finally enough light to do something after work. Currently 61 and actually pretty nice out. About a quarter inch of rain in the bucket from earlier

Glad everyone got outside yesterday

It’s another early spring across the triangle. Todays mid 70’s with the rain over next couple days will throw it into overdrive

We shot up to 77.2 which is our warmest temp to date for the year

That was a more of IMBY comment. I seriously discredited the Florida solutions and never once thought that was realistic. For NC, it was paltry. If we’re talking about the region as a whole, yes you could find a solid number showing wintry precipitation somewhere but it seemed either to be overly suppressed or too warm with little in between solutions which is why I favored the latter. There didn’t seem to be a path to victory HERE that was well advertised by a large % of ensemble members

Great question, I don’t know. Ensembles as you know are variable as always and you clearly have model tendencies but they’ve been pretty consistent in showing limited winter wx opportunities throughout the winter. I’d actually say ops this season have been more excited for some fantasy storms than you’d expect looking at their ensemble charts

Agreed. I pointed holes in this pattern as soon as it reached ensemble range and nothing was showing. It was the PUSU phase. I was told it was too volatile for models or too much energy was flying around to have any clue what was going to happen. Weeklies are THE WORST forecast tool we have yet some kept pointing to them over ensembles

For bashing of this winter

I started a thread for bashing of this winter. Let the discussion begin

With winter on the ropes and the main threads descending into climate change discussions, finger pointing and long range Icon hope, let’s discuss how this winter failed so miserably. Was it poor model performance, over-hyping ENSO, bad luck, climate change, reliance on analogs or some combination of everything? Let’s dive in and leave the main board for actual forecast discussion and the sanitarium for, well, the folks who need it. What better time to discuss a winter failure than on February 10 while it feels like 80 outside and our “best look in years” collapsed in 18 hours of disastrous model runs!

You have completed the 5 stages of winter grief over the last 24 hours. Congrats!

While it’s not all climate change, throwing out places that have a buffer and don’t struggle to get to freezing for snow as evidence is a poor argument. If you were 20 degrees and now you’re 25 it doesn’t matter. When we struggle to get to 32-34 for snow as is, it’s a much bigger deal even if you’re a degree or two warmer

Yep I’m taking my daughter to the farm right now. Spring has sprung

We might push 80 today if we keep the sun. Already a humid 70 out at 11