NorthHillsWx

Oh I agree but these tight-cored systems can do it and it has the look and T numbers of a cat 4. This looks 100x better than delta as a 4 in the same region for comparison. With a tight core wind speeds can catch up much quicker to pressure falls and I expect an insane pressure fall when next flight gets in there. If it’s not a 4 it’s for sure a high end 3 and still deepening. It already shot up from 65 to 95 kts from 4 to 10 am and I think that rate of deepening has only continued

Also- I’d be shocked if this isn’t already a 4. I can’t believe I’m saying this after what I saw when I went to bed last night but this storm may make a run at cat 5. It is maximizing everything and developed the type of tight inner core that can lead to it reaching full potential in a hurry

I think it is a cleared out warm eye. It’s just so tiny that it’s somewhat obscured by the high topped eyewall clouds around it and the satellite angle not being exactly above it. You can see it on IR and visible extremely vividly now

The fact we have this much tracking in November with non-junk systems is awesome for the weather nerd in me. This season continues to deliver the goods. I’ll take a back-loaded season any day. Eta likely to be this season’s strongest. I think we’re looking at a high end cat 4 based off this mornings trends, location, and tiny size of the system. Almost perfect sat appearance now. Eye rapidly warming and extremely cold tops surrounding a symmetrical core with well established outflow minus some very slight easterly shear. Nothings going to stop this from bombing until land or an unforeseen ERC which doesn’t seem likely due to the fact the core has just become established

Be some excellent data if one was in it right now...

Just silly deepening at the moment. These small core canes can really impress when everything aligns. May go from cat 1 to cat 4 between the 7 am and the 1 pm

WPAC or Caribbean on 11/2???

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a pinhole

I bet this thing is already 100-110 kts

Pretty scary wording from NHC. Catastrophic wind, rain, and surge. Glad this is coming in a sparsely populated area and the core is extremely small

I think this thing may make it to cat 4. Very charley-like on sat

Give this thing 24 more hours over water and we may very well have a cat 5. Most explosive strengthening of the year ongoing on November 2nd. Bet the next flight finds a major

Pretty impressive October snowfall going on in southern New England. From a hurricane to an east coast snowstorm. Hopefully that’s a sign we can get some coastal storms despite La Niña this year. One can only hope...

I think Zeta, Sally, and Paulette all stand a chance to be upgraded to majors. Zeta and Sally have the highest chance because the amount of wind damage to assess and sample size will be much greater. It’s semantics but looking at 6 majors instead of 4 would make quite a difference on the perception of an already epic season

Pretty awesome hurricane footage

430k outages in NC right now

428,000 outages in NC on the Duke system

Probably 40-45 mph wind gusts. What the advisory had called for. Calmed down now. Still wondering why the upgrade to the high wind warning

I know, the western part of the state was always supposed to get that. It’s kicked up last 30 min. Nothing bad but gusts 25-30 for sure. Leaves blowing around good

High Wind warning now up for the Triangle with gusts to 60 mph possible. What changed? More efficient mixing of winds to surface with daytime heating? Not seeing any wind reports near that downstream of us in Raleigh

Nowhere near the same. This is an average sized storm booking it with winds picking up at very end. Katrina was a mid gulf monster and had days to buildup that massive surge. Not fair to even include this in the discussion with the K word down there

Would be the shortest thread of a major US landfall in AmericanWx.com history

No chance at cat 3. I’m only saying I do not think this is going to weaken. It’s still (slowly) deepening and sat presentation has improved since this morning. It only has maybe 6 hours until the eyewall is onshore

The problem with this graphic is that the first forecast point, 12 hours, the storm is already inland

This is not the same look delta had coming in. This is a well formed strengthening storm. Conditions won’t permit it to go crazy but this is still strengthening and has just about run out of time for any weakening to take place