NorthHillsWx

GFS coming in warmer, more amped. Sigh

I was just hoping for some interesting weather we don’t get frequently. People here hate on ice storms but I haven’t seen one in twenty years so it’s definitely a unique and rare event. Feels like it might be another 20 years at this rate...

Fat lady has stepped on the stage and is warming up her vocals

Forecasting in areas that aren’t sandwiched between mountains on one side and the ocean on the other must be nice...

People love getting their power knocked out by storms and hurricanes yet don’t want it knocked out by an ice storm...

It does for a Miller B coastal... but waits to do it till it’s off the NJ/NY coast

If I had to make a forecast for this event that’s exactly what I would do for this: trust climo. Seems to fit well averaging all model solutions as well

Slightly colder for CAD regions on the Tuesday system.

Toss the CMC there too for major winter storms

Per that run this is falling into mid-upper 20’s in central N.C. Some sleet may be in play but those are the temps you need to maximize accrual and have these maps come even close to verifying. Takeaway is winter storm options are on the table

Canadian is a heck of a storm on Tuesday. It digs a much stronger slp closer to the mouth of the bay and raises heights over the NE. I am guessing these three factors allow more efficient cold air transport into the region? But yea, that’s a serious winter storm

Love the eternal optimism of some. I respect that.

GFS doesn’t get me below freezing until NEXT Friday night. Good grief

She’s red hot right now baby! The 12z dumpster fires are burning

Someone needs to print out and frame this morning’s discussion from RAH. It’s pure gold

I hung in there a little longer than than I should have, but was just wasting my time. Till next year

I’m throwing in the towel ladies and gents. I’m sure we’ll see a light glaze of ice in Raleigh from one of these impulses but I don’t see a warning level event IE something worth my time and effort to track happening. Time to live in whining thread

It barely advances the freezing line past the Virginia border counties and does so as precipitation moves out. It was well north and had less precip. Storm is still there but not an ice storm for the Carolinas as had been depicted on the earlier 12z run

GFS says enjoy 33-35 and rain, repeat, repeat, repeat for the triangle

It almost looks like the NAM, but for later in the weekend, not Thursday night

ICON is considerably warmer than 12z with considerably less precip. Does not have the weekend ice storm

That’s exactly where you’d expect it to be too

Cold air is not going to get here. Can’t wish it here. We’re done. Over, finished

I’m excited for the next 4 cold rain events

Anyone taking the dramatic warming shown on this run as gospel has not lived here long. Wedges ALWAYS stick around longer and are stronger than forecast. The density of the cold air and our geographic orientation make it almost impossible to dislodge that airmass especially with precip falling into it. A couple weeks ago our highs were forecast in the mid 60’s but most of us stayed in mid 40’s through the day. It can definitely warm enough to change to liquid and not freezing rain, but it ain’t getting out of the mid 30’s triangle north and west in this setup