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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    ICON keeps much of Triad in the 29-30 range for much of the event.
  2. NorthHillsWx
    If I was making a forecast for this based on WSW criteria at this juncture, I’d draw a line from Henderson to Hickory. North of that would be a WSW with a >50% confidence of verifying. Go one county south and east (watches just issued) and I would put your odds of verifying at 30-50%, decreasing from NW to SE. Next tier of counties (including Wake) just outside the current watch would be <30%. WSW gradient would likely be somewhere in the most recent watches posted (like Durham county). Thats how I see things and I think RAH has it right. GSP seems to be waiting to pull the trigger but I would expect watches with the afternoon package. To be frank, I’m surprised RAH issued watches this early in the game. They usually are more conservative
  3. NorthHillsWx
    +10 850’s would seem to be anomalous in this setup
  4. NorthHillsWx
    ICON is a HELLACIOUS ice storm. It actually has lighter precipitation for a long duration before bringing the firehose, IE efficient ice accumulation for extended period
  5. NorthHillsWx
    I don’t want to get too IMBY specific, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Wake got a warning just due to northern part of the county. Obviously most of the county would not verify, but based on what I’m seeing this event definitely looks to be more impactful further south and east than the last one. Raleigh proper I wouldn’t expect much in besides a light glaze, however. Could change but I had written the last one off already at this time. This one still piques my interest for mby
  6. NorthHillsWx
    Yep, this watch aligns well with modeling for this event. Think northern parts of Wake could be near the warning threshold though given current looks. RAH is staying on top of this one, unlike the last one where it felt they were more reactive once the precipitation started
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Man, 850’s are an absolute torch on both NAM and GFS. With the lack of an apps runner, what is causing this surge? I think combined with heavier rates that leads to higher BL temps on some modeling as it eats into the wedge from above.
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Goodness. That’s not what you want to see getting close to game time. Cut those totals in half and you have 2002...
  9. NorthHillsWx
    We missed (thankfully) on the rain last night. Probably the first Underperformer of the year in the rainfall department. Only 0.11” overnight
  10. NorthHillsWx
    From some of the pics and videos showing vehicles thrown I’d say this will likely end up as an EF-3 based on that alone. Some terrible pics and videos emerging this morning. Really confirming radar imagery from last night
  11. NorthHillsWx
    For RAH, this is an extremely aggressive map at this juncture
  12. NorthHillsWx
    One marked trend going back 48 hours now has been significant cooling of the column north of our sub forum. Much deeper cold air has also been noted on several models in the 900-925 mb layer and has been picked up on as sleet by modeling as such. I don’t know if this will have much impact on surface temps but I wouldn’t be shocked that we start seeing BL temps tick down a degree or two with the noted mid level cooling from previous runs
  13. NorthHillsWx
    This wedge definitely looks to keep parts of the triangle in play for significant icing, even down to Raleigh
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Winter storm watches hoisted = thread created. Maybe me starting it can send some of Raleigh’s ice barrier to you triad folks and switch this to sleet or cold rain. Good luck everyone
  15. NorthHillsWx
    Here we go again. Winter storm watches up for some areas already. RAH starting to sound the alarm on this morning’s discussion. Hoping those who got hit last weekend somehow avoid another major ice event but the modeling is painting an icy picture at this point
  16. NorthHillsWx
    3 deaths, 10 injuries being reported from the Brunswick county tornado last night. Terrible
  17. NorthHillsWx
    What’s that, their 4th or 5th event this winter?
  18. NorthHillsWx
    Well my buddy in Columbus Ohio doesn’t have the same gripe but is definitely unhappy. They had been forecast to have over a foot of snow but it’s been nothing but a couple inches sleet. I’m sure cliff diving would be similar on here given the buildup and expectation they had. It is falling on a base of 6” of snow and 18 degrees, sigh
  19. NorthHillsWx
    It’s either onto something or going down with the ship for sure
  20. NorthHillsWx
    On the subject of the NAM, it has surface temps in the mid 30’s and dew points in the lower to mid 20’s Thursday morning. It just doesn’t have hardly any precip. The wet bulb temps are there for an ice storm. As was said above, don’t trust the precip on the NAM. It’s very likely underdone. But don’t be fooled by the surface temps depicted sans precip. If it’s raining at that time as I believe it will be, it will be below freezing much of central and western N.C. with that thermal look
  21. NorthHillsWx
    Lol. I think the icon actually did fairly well with surface temps on the last event. Seems slightly colder and “wedgier” this go round. Definitely keeps parts of the triangle as ice through most of the event. CAD regions would have a major ice event
  22. NorthHillsWx
    NAM is dry
  23. NorthHillsWx
    You know it’s bad when Texas and Louisiana are experiencing near blizzard conditions and we can’t even get a novelty glaze of ice. Bad bad
  24. NorthHillsWx
    Draw a line from Henderson to hickory. NW of that line is a high probability warning event. Go 1-2 counties south of that line and you’re in the grey area. That’s how you forecast 90% of CAD ice events in NC and this is no exception
  25. NorthHillsWx
    When you have the globals onboard this far out and mostly aligning with your mesoscale modeling, you need to start getting prepared in the CAD areas. Classic setup and honestly not that difficult to forecast. It’s the areas outside the most prone CAD regions that are in question as to how far the freezing line will establish itself but if you had bad ice from the last storm I’d take pause with what looks like models are converging on 72 hours our...
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