NorthHillsWx

3K Nam would make a lot of people happy on here

Awesome work. This all seems reasonable at this point

Turned on the news... Had to head back to the storm page, quickly. Good lord. I haven’t seen any significant changes in overall modeling and this system looks on track. It will be a foothills, eastern slopes jackpot. Outside of there will be rate dependent and pretty much anyone along from Salisbury to Raleigh could see a C-2” snow but it will be localized and difficult to pin down. Most will not have accumulation. Triad and southern VA will have 1-3” maybe a few 4” totals if banding sets up. Better timing, ULL support, and more widespread snow. It will be more patchy East

I don’t think this snow map is very far off from what reality will be given this setup. Northern Triad/eastern foothills seem to consistently be the areas where it wants to snow on most models and 1-4 inch amounts seem reasonable there. Given the easterly flow, some elevation bonus, the foothills and eastern slopes look to be the jackpot. As the precip works East, an increasing them has been an area where precip falls off as the energy transfer occurs. This is a very common look with ULL energy transferring to a surface low off the coast. There will definitely be a “screw zone” or cutoff area to the east of the first thump of precip. This area may not get rates to overcome the warm BL and likely sees little to no accumulation. Further East, triangle/NE NC, everything will depend on what particular bands do. The euro has this well represented with some pockets of 1”+. Given the time of day, marginal to poor airmass, and relative lack of duration, it would take the SLP to get cranking and the formation of a DZ to produce more snow than shown. The GFS actually shows this but the column is just a hair too warm several thousand feet up. The GFS solution, if a hair cooler, would produce a nice secondary band further East. I think, my first call will and relative max of 4-8” on the eastern slopes and foothills including Asheville and hickory. I think the 85 and north area of the upstate sees 1-2 inches north of Greenville to Charlotte with little to no accumulation in those cities. There will be a sharp cutoff to this snow on the southern end but I think western Oconee county will see you to 2-4 inches while eastern parts don’t have any. This will progress through the extreme western upstate and into N.C. the triad will be a north of 85 event and I can see 2-4” there. For the immediate 85 area, mooresville, high point, Greensboro, East to roxboro, it’ll depend on where the energy transfer takes place and where a relative lack of dynamic banding occurs. This will extend into SW VA. Amounts will taper off north and East with Lynchburg to Richmond the cutoff for any snowfall accumulation of a coating or more. I’m going C-2” for these areas. East of there is more of a crapshoot and more dependent of small scale factors we can’t see yet. I’m thinking the triangle to NE NC and extreme SE VA will see highly localized snowfall of a C-1.5” max UNLESS that energy transfer happens sooner and the SL slings moisture in a deformation setup where rates overcome warm BL and last long enough. The other issue in this area will be getting sustained bands. There may be some pockets of heavy snow that taper to rain between bands. It is very hard to accumulate snow if it changes to rain on n lighter returns. I think the area that has the highest potential for this would be NE NC, Ricky Mount-Williamston-Roanoke rapids. I’m not forecasting that atm and will stick with a generic 0-1.5” across the entire area east of 85 with more areas in the 0” range and only localized accumulation elsewhere. Another negative of this storm will be the tendency for it to change to rain after the snowfall has ended. Some of these accumulations will certainly be short lived and with hours until the boundary falls below freezing and warm ground temps, much of this will be gone by Saturday.

One side of my yard has 6 inches but the other side gets 1!

NAM was... not good

It’ll be funny when we get a 60 page storm thread that devolves into observations including the terms “ripping” “fatties” then actually seeing pics of someone’s car topped and white trash cans and someone claiming they got an inch somewhere in the sub forum, ahh winter in the SE page

The splotchy appearance on the models indicates a truth with an ULL setup and limited cold air: accumulations are likely to be localized and not widespread. It may end up difficult to pin down where they will occur bc rates will need to overcome warm BL temps to get snow to the ground and even more so for accumulation to occur. I do not doubt someone sees some snow stick outside of the mountains but nothing in this setup screams a widespread storm and it may be county-wide or smaller meso scale banding features that setup that will be difficulty to pinpoint and offer very small windows for snow to fall and stick. Obviously the chance for these features to setup decreases with less dynamics and less moisture and lift as some overnight guidance has trended. Interesting system but I wouldn’t bet the house on seeing anything past token flakes outside of the mountains almost until we are now casting

I know posting long range snow maps is a lesson in futility but this highlights the upcoming potential to have multiple storms through the period. Looks to be an exciting couple of weeks ahead

Any model that nails the Raleigh snow hole so perfectly has to verify 100% of the time I’d think

Love when this board comes alive. I’m still skeptical about this coming fridays system given the lack of cold air around but looks like we may have several shots down the road. I’ll let the experts continue and I love the discussion. Thanks everyone!

Another over producer in the rainfall department. Just under an inch and a half, 1.44” in the bucket

No cold air source. No threat outside of mountains for significant accumulation imo. Verbatim models showing snow only in heaviest returns. Upper levels decent but rate driven snow this far out is just something to cut out the boredom

Pattern better hurry up

26 degrees this morning. Pretty sure we’ve seen more 20’s this year through December than all of last winter combined

Yep, I’m convinced Raleigh zeroes out on snow this year

12z GFS keeps a shred of hope alive for the 3-4th storm. Euro has it too. Poor HP placement means no arctic cold source but ULL overhead provides a cool pool with decent 850’s. Storm would have to generate its own cold air, in other words. We know how that usually ends up. But the track is favorable and the upper levels aren’t bad so there is a chance... this isn’t way out in fantasy land either. At least something to watch other than cutter city in the near future. Sucks to have a favorable LP track but no cold air but alas so is life in the south

This thread is better than this winter

Is it a good thing for snow in the South when the rain/snow line storm is halfway through Hudson Bay in mid-January?

Cold without snow is wasted cold

I’ve tried to stay optimistic but I am out of reasons to do so for the foreseeable future.

Last 2 winters probably had something to do with it...

Piece of southern stream energy looks interesting a few days after New Years. In this run the phase occurs about 12 hours too late for widespread snow in the south, but it’s very close

Currently 34 with snow flying on Christmas morning in Raleigh! Looks like snow showers will continue here for next couple hours albeit very light, still exciting!

I sure do love winter storms here and know the pain first hand of a near miss, but a very small terrible part of me does enjoy reading the MA forum when the inevitable inside the beltway screw job sets up for DCA... I can relate to those emotions too well