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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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Already some model support for development. Intensity models generally show strengthening until landfall
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Yes, it’s a good thing we cancelled this season halfway through August because the globals weren’t picking up on development. I can’t imagine if this had actually turned out to be an active season!
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Teddy should get us there alone
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Honestly we may need a thread for 90L. Looks robust this morning. Models have slowly been picking up on it, albeit weak, but as we just learned: never trust a gulf system. Another slow mover that may eventually work towards the Texas coast
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Pretty sure that weather radio is older than you. It still works too, listened to it at the beach a few weeks ago
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I still have my NOAA weather radio with extendable antenna. One of my favorite parts of the summer was waiting for the new tropical updates, while going through the entire area forecasts and marine forecasts, to get coordinates to track storms. Didn’t have tacks but did have a dry erase map of the Atlantic basin and paper maps I drew on. Would love to find my maps from the 1996 season
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Yes, Michael and Laura were total works of crap. I only respect dorians rolling straight into New Orleans with 35 foot surges and *recorded* gusts exceeding 200 mph with ground scarring as evidence and automobiles wrapped around trees with the tailgate touching the bumper, because anything less is more indicative of a cat 1
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This storm’s banter thread makes it a category or 3 higher in terms of human impact
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Finished with 0.45” for the day
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Had a shower about the width of my yard sitting over the house for last 20 minutes dumping rain. Not raining down the street but I bet we get a quarter of an inch
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0.09” 24 hour total. Muggy as can be
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Hits a brick wall
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The crazy thing about that run, well besides 3 hurricanes lined up in a row, is it doesn’t landfall any of them haha
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Idk it looked pretty robust coming ashore... Saw a 61 mph sustained wind report noted in the advisory. Being the system was tiny the chance of that being in the strongest winds seems very remote
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NHC earning their pay this season. Every one of their forecasts defied the models up until the very end for Nana. They’ve been incredible this season
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Hurricane Nana
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Yep, shear is going to win on this one. Levi’s discussion last night about the northerly shear imparted on the system by the ULL was spot on. Center has become exposed.
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In the discussion it says the system is expected to become a hurricane though the time interval this will happen is not shown
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Picked up right at 4.00” yesterday. Though humid, was nice today with low stratus cloud cover hanging on past noon. Currently 81 with a pretty sunset on the way
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Nice blowup of convection over the COC. Let’s see what happens with it. Still some E, NE shear present. Rapid motion isn’t helping either but system still looks well positioned for strengthening
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3 US hurricane landfalls (all strengthening on approach), one of the strongest storms to ever hit the US, and being on the “N” storm by September 1st sure doesn’t feel like a season bust!!!
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The fact they found 60kt FL winds is amazing. Can’t think of a season where the global shave faired worse than this year
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Small core of this system + improving shear conditions until landfall could lead to a quick intensification. These smaller systems can give us some surprises! I like that NHC went above the guidance with the intensity forecast. After seeing what recon found (tight core, high FL wind) this seems like one with the potential to ramp up quickly. I think we’ll be looking at a strong C1 by landfall
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I’m anxiously watching to see what they find. This is a beautiful satellite appearance to not have a closed center. Has expanding outflow and persistent deep convection where you’d think the center should be