NorthHillsWx

Last 2 HRRR runs are trying to get a coastal cranking at the end

ANDDDDD FROM WAY OUT IN LEFT FIELD HERE COMES THE NAAAAAMMMMM!!! Almost looks like it tried to get a coastal involved, kinda a hybrid system… oh poor NAM, you terrible model you

I’ll trade about 20 of my 90+ degree days for some 70’s with someone. Anyone?

You live in the wrong region my friend…

Not going to lie, how nice it is outside right now makes me ready to move onto spring. Might be the nicest day of the year so far with the full sunshine

I’m not sold this is an event even your way. This is a very fragile setup for snow much less accumulating snow. RGEM depicts how these usually end up and it shows serious temperature issues. No one’s going to hop on board a system on this forum where only a few locations have any chance to see accumulation in NC and VA with a very low high end even if all things break correct. No disrespect to you fringe folks, this just isn’t a good event!

One more shift and Raleigh would be in business for white rain. Look at your surface temp maps for that portion, everyone’s above freezing (even into Virginia) and rates look light.

Honestly that portion of this “event” is most interesting. With the upper level trough and cold pool going directly overhead there would be convective elements and you could get some heavy snow showers. That’s not really shown on other guidance but to me thar has a higher chance of producing accumulating snow than anything with this

Widespread flizzard incoming on the GFS! Seriously, this threat is dead unless some dramatic shift happens bc 1) snowing in the afternoon lightly with surface temps above freezing will not stick and 2) the upper level system though strong is strung out and lacking moisture meaning the ceiling is extremely low even if all available factors in this setup were favorable. There’s no costal influence and waiting on a lee-side trough to develop enough forcing to squeeze whatever little moisture is available with downsloping and delayed cold to produce accumulating snow is like hoping your high school girlfriend will call you back. When the coastal left the chat a couple days ago this threat died.

IMO, RGEM is a very realistic looking output.

Honestly, despite differences in surface map and precip depiction, the above statement has been mostly true for several days. SW to central VA has been the focal point for whatever QPF this upper level system will bring and it’s been that way across most modeling (NAM and it’s mood swings not included)

Just imagine the pattern for the last month if we had any semblance of blocking…

Very similar look to Canadian

RGEM looks like it was about to produce a big storm but it was also going to be pretty far north

I think the big issue with guidance is the current pattern we’re in. With no blocking and short waves flying around like mosquitoes I think guidance struggles and what you’re seeing mostly in mid-range model outputs has to do with seemingly subtle differences in timing in short range. Progressive patterns are notoriously hard to model and that’s why I think this season has had wild swings until the last minute

I’m sure Virginia Beach, the snow capital of the south, will cash out again

One will fold, and it will be the GFS

Looks nothing like spring in my yard, looked like the arctic tundra this morning at 26 degrees

If I was in northern VA I’d feel really good right now… positive trends today so far for “something” this way

Imo the EURO was a significant step towards something more significant. GFS obviously had two good (as good as this systems looked) runs. If we can get the EURO more onboard by tonight then this will feel like more of a threat. I HATE people (WRAL) bringing up temps the day before as an issue for almost every storm. So many good snows here followed a day or two of warmth. Literally the last thing I’d bring up at this range. Get the snow forecast first worry about it’s ability to accumulate on roads the day before

Not on an island anymore, looks carbon copy to euro

And a little further west with the southernmost energy

The GFS looks weird, and is on an island. I wouldn’t excite yourselves too much with it at this point

My bet is there is an inconsequential 10 minute period of sleet at the onset as the precip overcomes the dry air then a transition to the type of miserable rain that makes us want spring.

Monday’s event looks entirely timing dependent. If precip arrives before 12z it will likely be icy. If it arrives in afternoon it will be rain. That’s the difference in models right now, all models have us cold Monday morning so if the precip arrives before it warms up there will be some ice problems.