NorthHillsWx

Wet pattern looks to develop end of the week and depending on any possible tropical system we could see some hefty rainfall totals into next week. Check the Euro, over 1 foot for much of NC. That being said, amounts could be drastically lower if the lead wave fails to develop or stays offshore

Really interesting forecast with our cherry and our orange. Several possibilities with regards to storm formation, intensity, which waves becomes dominant, and potential land impacts. The only real positive is if anything develops from the Orange and moved to the coast the environment looks prohibitive for significant strengthening with a lot of continental dry air and an ULL over the SE but I could definitely see a tropical storm impact if that waves gets going as that ULL could try to pull it westward. The cherry would likely remain ots if it develops. I think the evolution of each individual wave will impact the outcome of the other as they are not far apart and we may actually see a merger. Very volatile atmosphere right now with very low model consensus but I am becoming confident we get a storm between the two

I believe the switch in the northern hemisphere has just flipped

I think it’s a hurricane based on recon but sat presentation has degraded since the plane left. Not sure what happens with the system pretty huge spread in intensity guidance

For what it’s worth all ops are very active in the central Atlantic over the next 2 weeks

Ragasa is looking mean this morning. I’m shocked Josh is chasing this, looks like it is traveling between the uprights in terms of splitting the populated islands in the area

If the recurve is far enough south this storm could stay tropical longer, possibly threatening the Azores. I would not rule out land impacts just yet

If the follow up wave does not develop, there are some mild concerns down the road it might ride the low level flow further west and develop closer to home. Some ensemble support for development in SW Atlantic from the lemon highlighted by NHC. With everything else pretty dead, at least something to watch

IMO, they named this storm before it met tropical cyclone criteria, namely it didn’t have a closed circulation. It has certainly acquired that now, but with 0 convection, this should be a depression at best. I will go on a limb and say, there is NO way this is producing TS force winds right now

High of 72 yesterday and waking up to 59. The endless fall continues

Wow what a beautiful naked swirl

The Virginia storm was more impressive on satellite than this is

12z GFS again shows this system unraveling into an open wave in a few days. CMC and EURO continue to be much more robust. Serious spread in hurricane models still but as a whole they have trended considerably downward with the vast majority keeping the system as a tropical storm or weakening back to TS at the end of the period, interesting

Is this real?

I have a thing or two to say! First thing- this might take the cake as the most questionably named TS ever! Second thing- I still don’t see a defined center and they even mentioned it is marginally organized at best. I guess the assumption is it keeps organizing through the day but man that’s a questionable call with multiple circulations within a broad wave axis

WPAC inactivity is absolutely absurd

I keep hearing about comparisons to last year’s slow start to September and while there are similarities with SAL and wave breaking, this one is simply much slower. At this point in September last year we had a cat 2 (landfall in Louisiana) and a TS. We haven’t even had a named storm yet, though that might change by tomorrow. Looking further into seasons comparison, 2024 was WAY more active to this point. Yes system numbers are similar, but at this point last year, we had had 4 hurricanes including a devastating cat 5, a US cat 2 landfall, and a very impactful cat 2 landfall on Bermuda plus Debby, a cat 1 that hit Florida. We have legitimately a 1 storm season this year. Erin was a named storm for 11 days. If you add up the rest of this years systems, you don’t even get 11 days combined from the other 5 systems. Heck 3 of them were only named for a day or less. The inactivity of the entire basin is simply stunning. We are now at 1/2 of our average ACE and that is including a 30+ unit ACE storm! I could go on and on but the point is, this is not like 2024 besides both shared an extended dead period mid season. The difference is 2025 wasn’t active before the dead period. 1 storm does not make the basin “active”. While I am sure future threats will materialize in the gulf and climo favored areas, I am simply shocked by how dead the Atlantic and entire northern hemisphere has been.

The GFS brings it back to life a little more on the 6z but one thing is beginning to become apparent and that is this system likely struggles until the recurve due to a combination of large size, shear, and an area of SAL it will be interacting with. To me this was a given to become a MH given modeling over the past few days. Now I am not so sure. EDIT: GFS brings the system to the 940’s and a MH as it recurves and accelerates

I’m a little surprised they designated this a depression overnight. Can anyone else find a center? First visible images seem to suggest a sharp wave axis but no discernible center. Convection is also not well organized. Hmmmm

We are in serious need of rain if we do not want to slide into a drought. We are sitting, 17 days into September, at 0.16” if rain for the month and going back to August 15 we have only received around 1/2” total. When I say it’s gotten dry that is an understatement! No rain in forecast either. We look likely to finish out September with under 1/2” total rainfall (possibly under 1/4”) which, including the second half of August, would leave us under 1” for the last month and a half. Not good

One of the worst forecast busts you’ll see. Parts of CNC got put under a FFW for up to 5-8” of rain in isolated spots and they won’t even see a drop! Here we went from 1”+ and 80% chance of rain all day to mostly cloudy I didn’t publicly call this but I said to my wife last night when we were talking about plans today if it was going to rain but I said it seemed the low was much further east than models were initializing so I wondered if we would get less rain all day. Did not think it would be this dry across the entire area though!

The amount of 45 kt gusts from cape lookout to the mid Atlantic has been impressive with the system. Very large area of strong northerly winds. Can imagine a substantial push of water on some of the sounds and rivers that catch that fetch

Great analysis. I said this on the Southeast board, but folks rushing to name this haven’t seen a proper nor Easter in awhile! It’s a textbook nor Easter and if you look at Water Vapor loop you can see it’s part of a larger ULL centered over the western Carolina’s. Also agree, if this was south of hatteras and over warmer water for longer, you could see it “pinch off” and wrap up into a hybrid system but this is fully frontal at the moment and a very powerful nor Easter. Jennettes pier has now gusted to 65 mph and has recorded gusts over 45 kts for the third straight day. Very impressive system but not tropical

https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1967948009901109559?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

I do not think this is subtropical. It is fully attached to a front and I see no evidence of a warm core, just warm air on eastern side south of a warm front. Also if you watch water vapor loop it is within a broader upper level system centered over WNC. These nor Easter’s can be quite strong and prolonged, as evidenced by winds gusting above 50 on the OBX for the third straight day. The folks jumping on naming this haven’t seen a proper nor Easter in a while! These are fun systems to watch