NorthHillsWx

Not sure this qualifies as a whiff. I see 1 inch of snow for most of the triangle with 1-3” west of there based on this depiction of a mesoscale feature. I think most would live with this event

Looks like a 3-4 day warmup then the ridge builds back in the NW with a +PNA. This was supposed to be a pattern change in the wrong direction just a few days ago but looks to resume with our winter weather threats quickly

Definitely the glue consumption. I hate to say it but when the NAM is on an island with anything but thermals in a CAD situation you need to look at it, acknowledge it was there and it was something, then toss it before you get any crazy ideas

EURO paints a picture I think is extremely realistic. For the entire east coast

I was in Clemson for that. Was absolutely dumping snow after it flipped from rain, some of the heaviest rates I’ve seen in daylight

These do tend to overperform when they develop but rarely do they make too Far East

18z GFS looks almost identical through 48. Maybe a hair further east

The worst thing they ever did was fire Ruffin. That program hasn’t been the same since. There was a year they beat State, UNC, and WVU and they had national hype and and NFL RB and WR. Haven’t done much since then

Ok I’m cashing out this storm with the 3k NAM. Done with the coastal. Give me my 2 inches of drama free snow and stick a fork in this one

Yea good run for y’all

Easy now… Clemson grad here! Y’all had your fun in Raleigh this year! Y’all’s game getting canceled was very sketchy from everything I’ve heard but doesn’t take away from a great season

Except our modeled events are 6-8” and usually fall apart 5 days out…

Oh, you’re not alone. The smug level on those sub forums the last few days was off the charts. Literally tossing runs that didn’t show at least 28” in their backyards… The cliff diving today is epic

Imagine this place if we went from a 20”+ snow to not a flake inside 60 hours on the models… That’s the NE and NYC folks right now. Thoughts and prayers for them

Hey, according to the NAM RDU does better than Boston… Exactly what we thought we’d see this run right?

Only issue going to be, drum roll, surface temps. High ratio fluff gets nuked when the surface is at or just above freezing in my experience

Couple things: the coastal has not been our (our = anyone away from coastal plain) storm on any model besides the NAM for a while now. Seeing it drop it is not surprising given the other models. What has been consistent is the snow breaking out from the upper level system interacting with that developing low. Think last Friday, very very similar. This is definitely trending away from a big event but a snowfall looks somewhat likely for most in NC still

Thoughts and prayers for anyone in Boston who just watched that NAM run

If anyone needs to see a board wide meltdown head over to the NYC sub forum right now

Best model until it doesn’t show what we want, then we toss

For what it’s worth, the 3k NAM is a very good look on its last frame. That’s going to end well for a lot of folks if you extrapolate that forward

Very similar solution playing out for NC as last weekend. Will need to milk everything we can get out of that upper level jet passing NW of the main LP bc it’s trending for us to be outside the main precip field. QPF looks very similar to Friday but temps are warmer and much warmer to start. If I was making a call map, from Charlotte to Greensboro-east I’d take what you got on Friday and divide it by 3. I think eastern NC is the only exception but there will be a much more drastic cutoff since this is a much stronger low and will have more influence on these areas. I think a large chunk of the state gets 1” with isolated 2” amounts and a sharp gradient to a 6-8”+ zone wherever that developing comma head sets up and banding is established. Probably another storm where almost everyone sees some snow in NC

Looks like a large amount of guidance is pointing to a light 1-2” event across a lot of central NC with increasing amounts north and east. Not looking like a big snow but I’ll take another accumulating snow 1 week after a warning criteria snow

I wouldn’t say it’s not onboard. It has a very similar looking solution but the devils in the details at this range

I wish I knew the number of 6”+ storms in my lifetime in Raleigh but I can tell you it’s not that many since 1989