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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    Ensemble mean qpf was over 0.50” for a lot of North Carolina. That’s significant at this range. Probably our juiciest look this entire season
  2. NorthHillsWx
    It is for most of NC. You’re in a better spot per that run. Only saving grace with this depiction is the amount of qpf, you can afford to burn through a lot of it as rain and still have enough to fall as snow for good accumulation. Those details will iron themselves out over the week. A storm is there and there are ways it snows on NC and VA with it
  3. NorthHillsWx
    I didn’t look at the snowfall map, I just looked at the precip output but still good at this range, not a beaut like I first said haha
  4. NorthHillsWx
    Euro ensemble mean is a beaut
  5. NorthHillsWx
    Amazingly similar look to todays 12z euro
  6. NorthHillsWx
    Thing of beauty though temps are very marginal (850’s and Surface) but that’s also how we rip big dendrites and rates in the south
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Definitely nice having Dr. No in your court. Last 3 systems the Euro has said “Nope” and turned out correct. Key takeaway for me is there is consensus now across most modeling (Ukie, GFS and ensembles, CMC, Euro, ICON lol) that there will be a storm around that timeframe and there is some cold air to work with. Way too far for specifics but this is about as good agreement at this range as you’re gonna get
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Nope, seems everyone has moved on to spring. Been getting my analysis from you all. Definitely one of the strongest storm signals of the season here and no one’s saying a word.
  9. NorthHillsWx
    I wish it was closer to go time but the Euro is a great storm with plenty of qpf. Verbatim it drops 1.5-2” of qpf across the northern half of NC and central VA. Definitely potential out there for the 28th
  10. NorthHillsWx
    EURO is a good run but it’s cold chasing precip. Verbatim central NC, Triad, and most Virginia folks would be happy
  11. NorthHillsWx
    Ukie is a big hit for triad areas through Virginia
  12. NorthHillsWx
    Agreed, but definitely a signal there now. Something to track at least
  13. NorthHillsWx
    12z Canadian coming in much more amped and much warmer (looking like GFS)
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Lowly ICON has the storm as well but just too warm. Snow in Virginia though
  15. NorthHillsWx
    Mega concerns with the cold push east of the mountains with that upper level low over the Great Lakes being the fly in the ointment but good lord that model sucks. Watch it’s last 4 runs
  16. NorthHillsWx
    0z Canadian was a pretty big hit. 6z GFS trended slightly wetter too, actually fairly significant west shift again
  17. NorthHillsWx
    0.36” this morning brings us to 1.23” for the month. Looks to be a rainy finish, but it had been a bit dry here last few weeks. Early morning high of 71.4! Temp falling now but that’s a crazy overnight temperature for February.
  18. NorthHillsWx
    I agree, unfortunately it will be in March
  19. NorthHillsWx
    Yay, cold rain in March
  20. NorthHillsWx
    Is it sticking?
  21. NorthHillsWx
    I think today we can all press the “cancel winter” button. Long range looks warm, even torchy. That brings us into March. Glad we all got some winter weather this season. One day I’m sure RDU will have a big storm again. Maybe…
  22. NorthHillsWx
    And an all-snow event with snow falling in the lower 20’s. Honestly that hasn’t happened many times in my life here
  23. NorthHillsWx
    3 years below average but I have to say I did enjoy the snow this year. Cold before and after, finally got to shovel my driveway, and felt like a win after we thought we’d lost it the day before
  24. NorthHillsWx
    HRRR has precip from the coastal back to the triangle. Just a hair too late for anything significant there but it’s a much more potent storm for just about everyone else and would certainly have a higher ceiling. On its island but definitely interesting to see nonetheless
  25. NorthHillsWx
    That band of heavy snow showers it keeps trying to swing through after the main system has certainly piqued my interest. As you noted, it comes through in dark with temps well below freezing and right before the commute. The main system Sunday has certainly trended to a daylight event and I think central VA is the most likely candidate for a couple inches of snow but even there it will be low impact as it will be falling in daylight with temps at most near freezing if not a hair or two above
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