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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    After the model runs today my thoughts are this has devolved into a novelty event. These meso-features never work out for many and that looks like our only mode for snow with this. I think most will see flakes but accumulation will be extremely limited and localized. Will be fun now casting but this will not be an event where general accumulation should be expected outside a few bands. On to the next one
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Agreed. Getting the feeling this will be a 0-3” forecast.
  3. NorthHillsWx
    Good luck nailing this one down. Localized variance will 100% affect the perceived outcome of how this plays out
  4. NorthHillsWx
    This setup really will be interesting tomorrow night. There likely will be localized areas that benefit from small scale features and get some decent banding. From what I’m seeing tho this will not be an area-wide score, though I think most areas see some snow. I think 0.5”-1.5” from the foothills east is a good bet but someone in there will get 3-4” where impossible to predict meso features develop. Nothings changed on that front since yesterday
  5. NorthHillsWx
    I love the video from that heavy band. Wish we’d spent another two hours in it. Was really coming down
  6. NorthHillsWx
    HRRR also managed to not drop a flake of snow in NYC… not sure I buy anything that models selling at this range. It’s way east and weak with the LP
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Not sure this qualifies as a whiff. I see 1 inch of snow for most of the triangle with 1-3” west of there based on this depiction of a mesoscale feature. I think most would live with this event
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Looks like a 3-4 day warmup then the ridge builds back in the NW with a +PNA. This was supposed to be a pattern change in the wrong direction just a few days ago but looks to resume with our winter weather threats quickly
  9. NorthHillsWx
    Definitely the glue consumption. I hate to say it but when the NAM is on an island with anything but thermals in a CAD situation you need to look at it, acknowledge it was there and it was something, then toss it before you get any crazy ideas
  10. NorthHillsWx
    EURO paints a picture I think is extremely realistic. For the entire east coast
  11. NorthHillsWx
    I was in Clemson for that. Was absolutely dumping snow after it flipped from rain, some of the heaviest rates I’ve seen in daylight
  12. NorthHillsWx
    These do tend to overperform when they develop but rarely do they make too Far East
  13. NorthHillsWx
    18z GFS looks almost identical through 48. Maybe a hair further east
  14. NorthHillsWx
    The worst thing they ever did was fire Ruffin. That program hasn’t been the same since. There was a year they beat State, UNC, and WVU and they had national hype and and NFL RB and WR. Haven’t done much since then
  15. NorthHillsWx
    Ok I’m cashing out this storm with the 3k NAM. Done with the coastal. Give me my 2 inches of drama free snow and stick a fork in this one
  16. NorthHillsWx
    Yea good run for y’all
  17. NorthHillsWx
    Easy now… Clemson grad here! Y’all had your fun in Raleigh this year! Y’all’s game getting canceled was very sketchy from everything I’ve heard but doesn’t take away from a great season
  18. NorthHillsWx
    Except our modeled events are 6-8” and usually fall apart 5 days out…
  19. NorthHillsWx
    Oh, you’re not alone. The smug level on those sub forums the last few days was off the charts. Literally tossing runs that didn’t show at least 28” in their backyards… The cliff diving today is epic
  20. NorthHillsWx
    Imagine this place if we went from a 20”+ snow to not a flake inside 60 hours on the models… That’s the NE and NYC folks right now. Thoughts and prayers for them
  21. NorthHillsWx
    Hey, according to the NAM RDU does better than Boston… Exactly what we thought we’d see this run right?
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Only issue going to be, drum roll, surface temps. High ratio fluff gets nuked when the surface is at or just above freezing in my experience
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Couple things: the coastal has not been our (our = anyone away from coastal plain) storm on any model besides the NAM for a while now. Seeing it drop it is not surprising given the other models. What has been consistent is the snow breaking out from the upper level system interacting with that developing low. Think last Friday, very very similar. This is definitely trending away from a big event but a snowfall looks somewhat likely for most in NC still
  24. NorthHillsWx
    Thoughts and prayers for anyone in Boston who just watched that NAM run
  25. NorthHillsWx
    If anyone needs to see a board wide meltdown head over to the NYC sub forum right now
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