NorthHillsWx

Two cherries and an orange… looks like we’ll possibly double our season total by this weekend. Minimal threats to land. Good surf on the east coast and Bermuda in play

We've had something like 8 or 9 active to hyperactive years in a row. Without the ridiculous subtropical wave breaking persisting abnormally long into the ASO this year, the general consensus would have most likely been correct. That is it was supposed to be active and even hyperactive. We've also got 8 more weeks to play with. But I wouldn't sweat it. The subtropical wave breaking and its effect on shear and allowing dry air to persist has certainly shut down the MDR, but the complete lack of any activity in the GOM, western Caribbean, and SW Atlantic is absolutely shocking to me. We’ve had slow MDR seasons that featured AN activity overall bc these other parts of the basin remained highly active. In a 3rd year La Niña climo highly favors these areas for development as well. The fact the ENTIRE basin is shut down and has been the entire season (all 3 storms struggled more than forecast and Collin was, well, kinda a name wasting joke) is what’s perplexing to me. Also, the 2 year downturn of global cyclone activity in defiance of numerous forecasts also says there may be other factors at play in the northern hemisphere affecting tropical cyclone genesis and overall conditions for tropical systems to reach higher intensity. I’m sure this period will be studied for future analogs outside of each basin’s own activity

A potential effect of the monsoonal depression persisting over the same location for so long is that the elongated surface gyre with multiple MCSs is likely cooling SSTs a degree or two to that central and significant location of the MDR. Though 91L may eventually go on to organize into a TC and move on into the Western or Northwestern Atlantic basin, such a long duration broad convectively active gyre may leave a large area of sub 28° SSTs for systems that traverse that locale down the road. Though it's still warm early September in the tropics so that should rebound some. Fitting for 2022. Our lone NS makes it even harder to get anything else bc it sat over the MDR as a disorganized mess too long.

A certain poster can take his/her victory lap tomorrow about calling for a 0-0-0 August in a season that featured dire forecasts. If you say the same thing every year, I guess you can be right once every 25 years (last time we were blanked in August). We will not get blanked in September, that’s a certainty.

After a lull, EPAC looks to get going again

Very slim margin for error! In all honesty, this season may struggle to produce 10 NS, it is that hostile and there are currently no signs of that changing. 91L seemed like a lock for a hurricane but even that is in question now. We are burning through peak season now with long range ensembles seemingly looking less and less threatening in terms of storm development and we’ve seen a huge decrease on the Ops as well. This first week of September just a few days ago looked like it was about to explode. Now we have an invest that is going to continue to struggle for some time and really nothing behind it

GFS develops 91L as it recurves then has a short lived TS about the same time from a vigorous AEW that dies out in very hostile conditions north of the MDR. Euro doesn’t even develop thus wave. GFS is then suspiciously dead through the end of the run. Ensemble support through this period has really decreased for both GEFS and EPS. It kind of looks like it’s a 91L show then we go back to the doldrums… This is not a switch flipping period in the basin, but a one show pony at least for the next 10 days as I see it

Was out of town over the weekend but picked up 0.60” to bring our monthly total to 3.33” imby

0Z guidance was a snooze fest

ASCAT revealed that this system has successfully, though slowly, been organizing. However, visible, water vapor and IR imagery shows what the system is up against. On visible, numerous outflow boundaries can be seen from collapsed storms, indicating dry air. Further, on IR, it’s beginning to have “popcorn” storms on the NW side. A telltale sign of dry air in the formative circulation. Water vapor confirms the dry air it is moving into. Looking at IR, while you can’t see the formative surface circulation as you can on visible, you can see several areas of mid level rotation along the wave axis. This shows the system is still quite disorganized. Lastly, 91L for days has been able to generate constant deep convection as it was still associated with the monsoon trough and in a moist envelope. We’re just now seeing what life outside the monsoon trough will be like for the system, and it’s a similar story as everything else that’s traversed this part of the Atlantic, dry and sheared. This is taking a huge toll on the convective envelope of the system right now. 91L has a couple things working for it previous waves didn’t: 1) it’s the furthest west a wave has made it in a very long time without being obliterated 2) north of the islands looks, to different degrees, favorable for development 3) it has a formulative center, and being able to keep some of this organization will help it take advantage of a more favorable environment in a few days, if it can I think the system’s initial development has been capped as of this morning when it entered the hostile conditions currently affecting it. These hostile conditions should stop any continued organization for at least the next 2 days. Beyond that, this will be a named storm, finally

Overall guidance has trended downward in regards to intensity with 91L. There are still some strong solutions but the interaction with the TUTT seems to be trending towards a less favorable look, even in the EPS guidance which had a very favorable environment east of the Bahamas yesterday. My best guess is the low that had been shown to form north of the system along the trough is no longer present allowing the TUTT to extended further south that previously shown. Other observations from morning guidance definitely has trended further west with weaker solutions, with stronger solutions trending towards a recurve. Low level steering is generally east-west but the trough that previously had shown LP development to the north of 91L, with HP rebuilding west behind it, is now just a trough. This would be the escape path out to sea with a stronger/deeper system. It also shows shear as low level steering and mid level flows are at odds. Long story short, 91L has a questionable future for intensity and track, but I am very confident it will become a NS around 60W. Beyond that, I think guidance has trended weaker overall and future path options will hinge on intensity, LP development to the north along the trough, and where a LP center eventually forms for 91L.

I love this board. Carry on

That wave that just came off the African coast is one of the most robust-looking waves this season. Guidance is murky on it in the short term, but it looks more organized than guidance would seem to indicate. Maybe this one can spin up before it runs into the Atlantic Sahara?

That wave that comes off the African coast around the 30th is likely our “D” storm. Whether it develops before the end of the month or not we can’t tell, but if it fails to develop in general, I’m throwing in the towel on the MDR this season.

I don’t have 8” the last 3 seasons combined lmao

1997, 1961, 1941, and I found a 4th, 1929. So this would technically be the 5th time it has ever happened and first in 25 years. During a season that was forecast to be hyperactive, no less. I want to throw a disclaimer that I personally think we’ll get a NS but it will come down to the last or second to last day of the month and will come from that incredibly strong AEW that models and ensemble guidance have picked up for days. If that fails to pan out, I see nothing else that will get named and we’re in crunch time, less than a week to go in August

It looks like it’s going to come down to the last two days of the month as to whether or not we put August 2022 in the history books as the 4th August to ever go without a NS…

That may be where we’re headed. Something tells me we won’t get away unscathed

It’s in a good moisture envelope however… it’s squarely centered in an area of 25-30+ kts of easterly shear. Too far south, you’re in the shear. Too far north, shear looks favorable but you’re stuck in the SAL. It’s a no-win for any AEW at the moment

Absurd

I’m still thinking we get a system by the last couple days of the month but the AEWs forecast to produce HAVE to produce that first week of September or this season is sunk from having any chance of above normal activity. The bar has been lowered from hyperactive expectations (fast and furious watch for August, lol) to probably now in all likelihood clawing to meet average seasonal activity. There’s still a great signal from almost all ensemble modeling that the period between August 28-September 7 will feature several systems in quick succession. That will be critical to where we land as a season. We miss that period, we’re sitting at September 10, the climatological peak, and downward climo. It’s conceivable at this point we end with BN activity, but that week starting at the end of this month through beginning of September will be absolutely critical from a seasonal perspective

This was the GEFS from a week ago… I mean we’re talking full-on ensemble fail at this point

GFS backed development off on the Caribbean system pretty much until it gets to the GOM. Par for the course this season, get around 5 days (or more) out then push back or drop development. At least the models are showing a consistent signal for the last couple days of the month going into September being more active. If we get past that period with nothing to show, this season is going to be an epic bust. It only takes one, but goodness this is probably going to replace 2013 as the biggest season bust, total activity-wise

8.2”? I would think a sloppy 1.2” then change to 33 and cold rain would be more appropriate in that scenario

What should we be watching to see if there is any merit to some of the models in developing this trough? It looks like the players are already on the field (over water). Are there any hints that a solution like the GFS with eastern Caribbean development may be onto something at present? As stated, this is not a long or mid range forecast. This should already be starting to show it’s hand.