NorthHillsWx

Just imagine the pattern for the last month if we had any semblance of blocking…

Very similar look to Canadian

RGEM looks like it was about to produce a big storm but it was also going to be pretty far north

I think the big issue with guidance is the current pattern we’re in. With no blocking and short waves flying around like mosquitoes I think guidance struggles and what you’re seeing mostly in mid-range model outputs has to do with seemingly subtle differences in timing in short range. Progressive patterns are notoriously hard to model and that’s why I think this season has had wild swings until the last minute

I’m sure Virginia Beach, the snow capital of the south, will cash out again

One will fold, and it will be the GFS

Looks nothing like spring in my yard, looked like the arctic tundra this morning at 26 degrees

If I was in northern VA I’d feel really good right now… positive trends today so far for “something” this way

Imo the EURO was a significant step towards something more significant. GFS obviously had two good (as good as this systems looked) runs. If we can get the EURO more onboard by tonight then this will feel like more of a threat. I HATE people (WRAL) bringing up temps the day before as an issue for almost every storm. So many good snows here followed a day or two of warmth. Literally the last thing I’d bring up at this range. Get the snow forecast first worry about it’s ability to accumulate on roads the day before

Not on an island anymore, looks carbon copy to euro

And a little further west with the southernmost energy

The GFS looks weird, and is on an island. I wouldn’t excite yourselves too much with it at this point

My bet is there is an inconsequential 10 minute period of sleet at the onset as the precip overcomes the dry air then a transition to the type of miserable rain that makes us want spring.

Monday’s event looks entirely timing dependent. If precip arrives before 12z it will likely be icy. If it arrives in afternoon it will be rain. That’s the difference in models right now, all models have us cold Monday morning so if the precip arrives before it warms up there will be some ice problems.

Good to see some long range activity again. Definitely don’t see a torch incoming either. Those bemoaning the fact we’re in February need to stop, yes it’s trending warmer and yes the Sun angle is beginning to become a problem but the fact there is more warm air available means that we have the potential for stronger storms. The battle between warm and cold is literally what fuels some of our most famous late winter storms so there being more warmth available is not necessarily a bad thing. Complaining about snow not sticking around is foolish, we live in the south my 3” of snow in mid January evaporated in 2 days despite the cold temps and low sun angle. The big March storm in the upstate in 2009 had snow on the ground in shaded spots for 7-8 days after the event in Clemson. Most of the forum has over 50% climo and some are over climo with a month of prime winter left. Usually we joke about fantastic February saving us when we have nothing at this point then get an inch or two at the end of the month or early March. If that happens most will hit climo this year, it’s not like many average 10” of snow here. Great January and hopefully we can pull a big storm in a big storm month with a half decent look to the pattern

Well someone already mentioned Sun angle the other day so that’s out of the way…

I felt that way too when I took my dog for a walk yesterday afternoon without a jacket. I’d rate this winter as a B- so far on the following conditions: Good: 1) warning level snow that was all snow from start to finish and preceded and followed by arctic temperatures 2) 2 advisory events with coatings of snow 3) WSW with probably right around warning criteria ice imby 4) best extended cold stretch since January 2018 Bad: 1) December 2) near misses on both advisory events and the ice storm where the system trended just too far west (that was a painful miss given modeling a few days prior. As was the one last weekend where we ended with a coating) 3) excellent pattern and still only half our seasonal snowfall 4) being a bit of a snow hole compared to eastern and western areas

Anyone know any way for the Monday/Tuesday system to trend colder? Would it require a stronger LP? It’s so close but temps up to 850 are isothermal so it’s not like there’s cold air just off the ground. The track the EURO shows is honestly ideal for snowfall in our area just can’t catch a break this year. Too far west, plenty of cold air but too Far East, now perfect track and no cold air. Such is life in the South

That’s crazy. The clouds broke and we topped out near 71 here yesterday and places in the NW triad were sitting around 40 at the same time

It’s probably the influence of that weak GL low but man if only there was SOME cold air Monday/Tuesday bc that system looks better and better. Gonna be tough seeing rain and 36 degrees with a coastal taking an ideal track in early February

From a Raleigh perspective I can’t hate too much on this winter. We had a good storm and we had sustained cold. Missing out narrowly on several events did stink and having a lot of opportunities and coming away with one real system definitely feels like a waste but it was fun tracking for an entire month and seeing flakes fly numerous times. Always want more but thankful for what we had

Hard to think about winter right now. Sun is out and pushing 70 at the moment! Took the dog for a walk during my lunch break and forgot how much I love these kind of days

Sun is out and we’re pushing 70! 69.4 at the moment Edit: we broke 70. 70.3 at the moment

The good news in the long range is overall I see no sign of an extended torch. The SER never looks to get established and we mostly keep the +PNA, though there are mixed signals with that mid month. Western ridging seems to be fairly prominent throughout so i don’t think winter is dead and we likely will have another shot at a storm

We’re at 3.4” here. 3.2” from one event and 2 small events where I measured 0.10” each time. We’re still below ours but what hurts is the potential. We had storms go east, west, and most recently south of us. We had a nice snow event and extended cold so our winter is definitely not a bust but man what could’ve been if any of the 4 events we just missed on had happened differently