NorthHillsWx

Honestly, not bad structure

I’ve been fooled before without recon confirmation, but on visible, this looks like a TC.

12 more hours and this thing would’ve been a major or dang close to it. Agreed with your discussion

Last week I was in Yellowstone National park during hurricane Ian. I had very limited access to cell service, and obviously models and radar. I’d like to thank this board for an epic thread that needs to be saved. Since I got back, I’ve had time to go back and read discussion from Monday-Friday and it is absolutely a benchmark system both from strength, impact, and degree of forecasting difficulty. As always, excellent discussion on this board of another great American hurricane

This season is very likely to finish BN for total named storms and ACE but it most certainly was backloaded. Where were we on August 31 and where are we now? That’s backloaded to me. We’ll see if October produces like it looks like it will. If October fails to produce, then there may be a debate as to how late September systems don’t really qualify as “backloaded” in a long season

I was about to post that this looks better than the 20/30% odds NHC had for it, then noticed it got bumped back up to an orange at 8. If current convection persists into the afternoon this could be a cherry by tonight. I don’t expect additional development until it gets into the Caribbean but this one could, I suppose, spin up faster than models are showing given current appearance

Sadly I don’t blame anyone but the people who choose to live in these hurricane prone areas and especially those who don’t evacuate. My family had property on the NC coast and we know the risks. TWC interviewed a couple who lost their house in a California Wildfire a few years ago. Their solution? Put everything into a house boat the left docked in fort myers… I mean I’m sorry they lost their boat (house) but at some point you just have to shake your head at the decisions some people make for their lives.

Power came back sometime overnight. Still a lot of generators humming in the background so think we got a bit lucky.

Was a rough descent and landing but not as bad as I was expecting. We don’t have power and there are a few big trees down across millbrook and in my neighborhood. Do not know rain total or wind gusts bc I forgot to put batteries in my station and with the power off…

My house lost power per my in-laws staying there

A ton of power outages piling up in the Carolina’s. My flight is still on time. I’ll give y’all my best hurricane hunter update when we do our center fix in a few hours over RDU haha

I’ve just boarded my flight to Denver. Supposed to land in RDU at 11. Flight is still on time. We’ll see…

Serious surge flooding in ocean isle North Carolina right now. A buddy’s ring cam had water halfway up their first story door.

Getting numerous gusts over hurricane force in South Carolina now

My comment is based on the dry slot just east of the inner core, the lack of anything on the backside, and the restricted outflow on satellite. I am by no means saying Ian is weakening, but these are all signs of the storm having peaked or being near peak.

Definitely looks to be moving north. These small wobbles can have big impacts in actual landfall location. Still a lot of questions as to where this one will wash ashore

Is anyone else not gawking over the radar/satellite presentation tonight? I know it’s a strong storm but it’s SW side is nowhere near as symmetrical as earlier, it has a ragged eye (remnants of ERC), and it looks like a dry slot is developing east of the core. Satellite is starting to show outflow being restricted to the west and some asymmetrical shape to the CDO. IMO, Ian has peaked. I don’t see why a 5kt increase wouldnt be possible if the eye fully closes but I’m seeing a system that looks past prime this hour

First storm I’ve ever been weenie tagged after suggesting, based on modeling, there’s a way for this storm to not be a destructive US landfall that would kill many people and cause billions in damage…

If I’m a storm chaser I’m finding a way to get to western Cuba.

Couldn’t agree more. A sharp angle of approach, a major city, uncertain intensity at Landfall, and a major hurricane sitting a stones throw off the beach. The destructive potential is extremely high but the bust potential especially in the public eye is as high as it gets. Glad I’m not making those decisions

As far as flooding goes, the western Carolina’s may actually have the higher risk as an overrunning event sets up with moisture from Ian being sheared north. The easterly flow from the circulation against the mountains would further enhance rainfall for east facing slopes. These can be very significant events for that part of the south especially with a tropical system interacting with a boundary providing increased lift over a large area.

Regarding the doom and gloom posts, a storm moving slowly 100 miles off the coast will not drive catastrophic surge into the coast. Water rise and wave buildup? Sure. Major surge? No. You need the wind energy driving the water inland. I’m not mitigating the threat, but if that Euro run verifies, everyone should breathe a sigh of relief in Tampa. Other good news, a major system slowing down is usually the worst case for rainfall. In this case, Ian is slowing down while being shredded by shear and dry air. This looks to rip most of the moisture north of the circulation. This is not a prime setup for flooding at least in Florida there will likely be a large dry slot east of the center as the circulation injects dry air from the west. Lastly, as far as windfield goes, I’m not seeing a massive system. This looks to be modeled as a pretty tight core. HWRF, HMON, EURO, GFS all barely skim the west coast of Florida with TS force winds. As it weakens, those winds do expand from the center but by that time I’m really not thinking a large fetch of 35-50 kt winds would be devastating. Once again, I am not downplaying this system or it’s potential destruction. However, overnight the modeling trend would shed the core of destructive winds and surge west of the peninsula. We need to temper our doom and gloom for this storm if that scenario plays out, which thankfully would spare millions of people a very destructive hit. Still a lot of variables at play but to see the major modeling push west, the current position being SW of where the models that pushed this near or over the Tampa area yesterday, and continued hostile to extreme hostile conditions modeled across the northern GOM, it looks like we may have an “out” to avoid a destructive impact

GFS depicts a very small system north of Cuba

NHC explicitly mentioned significant degradation of the storm prior to LF on their discussion, obviously if it goes west of the peninsula.

It’s become strange talking about a storm weakening into a northern gulf landfall after the last few years. This used to be the expectation