NorthHillsWx

South Carolina beat Tennessee and Clemson this year Bigger upsets have happened!

From snow to severe weather. Take your pick of model this afternoon, they got a little bit of everything for the 23rd. GEFS looks great. Will be interesting to see EPS

1.51” today shoots the monthly total to 2.11”. Only made it to 46.4 as wedge held in all day

Before the 12z dream scenario no one on here would have complained with that run

Canadian still had the system and it wasn’t too far off.

Haha this: Pattern has potential. Models all over the place. Nice to be under a deform band for 12+ hours with 20” of digital snow on a model run though!!!

Run for the ages. Big snow, white Christmas, brutal cold, another big snow, more cold… Unlike previous 4 years we actually have a pattern to support this

Happy hour GFS is cold cold

It’s a known model bias for the EURO to over amplify systems in the SW at range especially in Niña patterns. It is at odds with its ensembles which usually means you will see a lot of run to run variance and that will s what we’ve seen with the model. If the EPS pushes a western trough down into the 4 corners region the way the op does then I’ll be more concerned but it doesn’t and looks much more similar to the GEFS at range. Maybe the op caught onto something and the ensemble package moves towards the op but having the GEFS and EPS in relative alignment on the pattern evolution is usually a good sign if things to come on the ops as we get closer

GEFS looks slightly improved from last night. EURO is out to lunch and still seems to be handling the energy out west poorly and the op remains at odds with the EPS. Need that western ridge a little further east. GEFS looks pretty dang good for snow chances. It’s really that western energy and making sure it rounds the ridge and doesn’t over amplify in the Mississippi valley that could be the wrench thrown in this. GFS is super suppressed but I’ll take that look all day at range. Hopefully by the weekend we have a good idea of how the western energy will evolve

For 3 days and then we rain. A roughly 3 day window of cold is coming but everything looks too progressive for anything besides a quick cold snap

Crickets around here for happy hour?!?!

EURO op being at war with its ensembles and GEFS says to me we will continue to see wild swings on the Op runs for a few more days. However, trends haven’t been great today. We’re still in the game though. Let’s ride

I fully agree with this. The amount of energy flying around on the southern jet after Thursdays system is insane. No wonder models are having a difficult time figuring out which piece to latch onto

I’ve lived here long enough… I know what’s coming. Rain —> Cold —> Rain

30.7 here this morning. First sub-freezing reading since the 5th. Only made it to 49.8 yesterday for a high

06z GFS is like a used car salesman on TV. You get suppression! You get a Great Lakes cutter! Everyone gets pain and misery in the forum!

Happy hour run delivers!!!

I will say this: if parts of the forum don’t score with this look and pattern from next Thursday-January 1 it will be a tough pill to swallow. So much ensemble support and favorable teleconnections. I think the biggest issue we may see play out would be suppression due to the strong HP and cold airmass centered over the east. The center of the cold dome has steadily progressed east and almost to the point of being too close to us. You need to smell the rain most times to get snowstorms in this area so our normal issues may be reversed in this pattern where the cold push may also push and flatten the southern stream. Ensembles still show moisture meeting cold but have backed off a bit from yesterday on the precip over much of the south. Honestly that’s more concerning than the cold air availability, shockingly enough. My concern though still cannot undermine that this is about as good a look for winter weather threats as you can draw up for our region at this range and it is centered around the holidays. Ops will struggle but ensembles are pretty locked in with the cold which for us is always 3/4 of the battle. Let’s ride

6z GFS suppressed and strung out with everything after Thursdays system

Lol 18z was pure pain east of 85. Way too early but something to track around the holidays gets me excited

Picked up 0.31” yesterday which brings our monthly total to 0.55”

I predict Bastadi’s mega cold snap to be a 2-3 day stretch of below normal temps, proceeded and followed by near normal to above normal. The Pacific is relentless (la Niña) and it looks like the blocking from -NAO trends to be more neutral by mid month. This looks like a transient pattern shaping up to me, not a “pattern shift” that would lead to extended cold and snow chances in the south. GEFS and EPS are starting to meet in the middle

We might not be done yet… 99L looks better defined this morning

31.2 for the low this morning. Looking ahead it might be our last sub freezing reading for awhile