NorthHillsWx

Some areas might go from having no advisory to warning level snows in the GSP forecast zone...

Per webcams, looks like roads are starting to cave

I swear, we do better in the south with these weak systems more consistently than big "blockbuster" storms. No mid-level warming and just enough moisture to make us happy, by our meager standards. The jealousy level to yall's north and east is unprecedented atm... Congrats!

Increasing

Me thinks Greenville peeps will be happy by day's end...

They just like to keep everyone on their toes! For real though, those Clemson live cams are impressive. It went 0-100 real quick and is RIPPING there!

It's looking like GSP got caught with their pants down... Especially for Oconee and Pickens counties

If this holds together AT ALL, Greenville may have a shot at an inch.

I caution you on your optimism, it's contagious

Snowing at Clemson University per webcams! Man I wish I was there http://www.clemson.edu/webcams/

Wow

I bet it's a good feeling in the areas where the snow is falling. No more model watching. No more 10+ day storms. No more snow depression. From the outside looking in- enjoy whatever falls it's a miracle you were able to score in this pattern! This storm had about a 12 hour window in this cold air after the big system yesterday and for once the pieces came together nicely for you guys!

ATL, N GA, and Parts of the upstate may hit climo with this storm. That wouldn't even be fair looking at the yearly stats years from now Meanwhile I was happy to see graupel yesterday for 5 min. I wish I could find another cliff I've jumped off every one available so far.

I agree. I know the models predicted a quick warmup but with those cold 925's, earlier arrival of precip, and colder than forecast lows this morning, I would be shocked if the Clemson-Greenville area didn't get some accumulation. This storm would have to completely dry out and it looks to be coming in with a good slug of moisture atm

Wow optimal radiational cooling last night! When I went to bed I didn't know if we'd hit freezing but checked my temp gauge this morning and we bottomed out at 25! Currently 36 and a WINTER-like feel outside, forgot what that was like... Heading to the farm today looks like a perfect day for it!

All Hail King NAM with this system! Like eyewall said, this storm isn't going to help us Raleigh peeps, but I am certainly living vicariously through you N Ga and upstate folks today. Traffic cams in NW Ga look like a solid snow event incoming. Man it's nice to see a mood change around this board, even if it doesn't help my neck of the woods

From ATL: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 305 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 . SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Mostly cloudy skies expected to break up this evening allowing temps to fall to the low- to mid-30s tonight and tomorrow morning. A h850 shortwave is expected to sweep through the southeast tonight and tomorrow morning, with relatively smaller PWAT values but enough to produce a tenth to a half an inch across the northern CWA. With temps just above the surface below freezing this means winter precip will be involved, and even though QPF is expected to be low, it will be enough with an approximate 7.5:1 snow-water ratio for minor snow accumulations to occur with a rain/snow mix across North Georgia. Only about a tenth to a half inch of snow accumulations outside the mountainous regions are expected but with rains and warm ground temps, if anything falls it probably won`t stick around long. In mountainous regions up north this could be a different story. Embedded in colder temps, areas of NW Georgia could see 1-2 inches, with higher elevations along the spine and mountaintops of the GA Blue Ridge mountains could see up to 4 inches in some isolated locations. This has prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for the majority of Northern GA. Temps may climb into the upper 30s before the transition from snow to rain occurs with some slick spots possible where any accumulations occur. Temps tomorrow night will also drop back into the low-30s for N GA, which may continue to cause some slick spots Sunday morning.

Wow! A winter weather thread! I forgot what this looked like here!!!

I think you're in as good a spot as any for this system. Good luck!

Graupel showers in Raleigh at my house in North Hills right now! First frozen precip I've seen AT THE HOUSE this year (saw some snowflakes on the beltline in November) lol

Also, I know nothing about this model and will probably get crucified for posting it, but this would be a great treat for much of central NC!

The trends (within 24 hrs of start time) have been very favorable for this system. I think start time is important, but it's also early February and the cold air is in place, so I don't think it's as detrimental as it would be a few weeks from now (still not ideal but I don't think that is the deal breaker). Moisture is the biggest concern (and seeing what boundary temps are at start time). Not much moisture to burn with this system so every flake counts, literally. I think accumulating snow outside of NE GA and the highlands of SC is less likely, but systems like this can spring surprises. Hi-res and short range models are certainly beefing up precip and this has even translated to the GFS, EUR), ICON, and CMC. All things are trending better for some potential advisory-level snows and that is pretty exciting this year. With this system, I'd look for the moisture then worry about the temps. Thermals are as good as you could want for snow in the deep south besides the boundary layer.

Someone should start a thread for this event and go ahead and curse it... JK pulling for you NE GA guys and the Upstate to squeak out something. I'd focus on the hi-res modeling with these type of systems and the most consistent model has been the NAM to the point that other models seem to be playing catch up. I lived the Cumming area for a year working with Sawnee EMC and I think that spot to Dahlonega, Franklin NC, and up towards Cesar's Head all look like a good spot to be. Boundary layer warmth is going to be hard to model in this but the upper levels are extremely favorable. I would expect at least some white rain in the upstate areas. If its in the 33-34 degree range then some slushy accumulations could occur there. Outside of the surprise snow a week ago, this is the best chance this season for several members of this sub forum. I think some 2-3 in amounts could happen in higher elevations in the areas I outlined.

From rainfall and flooding, tornadoes, a widespread severe squall line, to a post-frontal wind event, I'd say this system has overperformed or at least met expectations for almost all areas of the sub forum. Anyone notice the 68 mph wind gust at Hatteras last hour? We just had what I assume to be the last of the rain from the system. Winds are gusty, but nothing compared to 6:30 this morning. Too bad it wasn't snow but this has been an exciting couple days on the weather front.

I know no one wants to believe it, but the 3K Nam, ICON and GFS show a decent snow event, not 5 days+ out, but tomorrow for NE Ga and the Upstate of SC (mostly mountains unless you truly believe the NAM). At worst, this looks interesting and some could get a nice little surprise. Seems the models juiced up the system on overnight runs.