NorthHillsWx

I actually disagree with this. I feel like models have been relatively locked in from inside 7-8 days. We haven’t had anything besides the ULL low that made it inside medium range as a threat. Beyond 7-8 days as has been and, for the foreseeable future, will always be fantasy land. The only reason people strayed into fantasy land this year was there was literally nothing interesting to talk about inside the fantasy range. Overall though, I think models did a great job inside a week, the only issue being they collectively and correctly eroded weenie hope every run once anything got into that range. The major SSW event was really the only thing that kept this forum entertaining for the last month bc there was just nothing else going to give us hope in the sh*t patten we were stuck in, so all of GA’s posts were much welcomed even if nothing really panned out as far as sensible weather impacts for our region. Winter 2022-23 will forever go down as the winter that never happened (I think I saw RDU finished with 22 of 28 days above average in February)

Slipped out to my farm earlier today and noticed it had gotten quite dusty on the dirt road. Nice to have a few days off from the recent rain

Noticed the bees today too. They were out in force

Low of 40.8 last night

SER just says “what cold?”… We’lol be lucky to get a freeze. Many, many earliest last frost/freeze records are in jeopardy this spring

I’m convinced the SER has officially become an immovable object. It’ll fade for 2-3 days for sure but it’s still there hiding, resurrecting itself for the next 14 days immediately before another system approaches. Literally we cannot even get a frost this year, I do not remember the last time it hit freezing at my house. I will say, the weather today was AMAZING! I’ll take this any day

Looks like a few frosts, or normal for March

We reached the put up or shut up timeframe and the modeling chose the latter

From snow to 75 on the 13th. Oh how fun GFS long range op runs can be

You know this winters bad when the NE forum has a thread 80+ pages long for a 3-6” slop storm

Picked up 0.18” this morning for a two day total of 0.90”. Currently 57.7 after a low of 56.7. Thankfully the pollen is being washed away by this rain because it was already getting bad

I usually cut modeled wind forecasts in half

Might not even get rain with the main line in most of NC

Seems we forgot to start a March obs thread, so here we go. Picked up a soaking rain this morning, looks like 0.72” will be the overnight/morning total. Currently 59 and feels extremely spring-like with a DP of 58.8

Even with the blocking, the SER WILL NOT DIE

I mowed my yard for the second time this year today. Was quite nice out. Had to spray the plethora of weeds that have taken off. Without exaggeration, we are more than a month ahead of schedule for the growing season.

In other words: here we go again. Cold ain’t making it to the SE in time, if at all.

Completely caved to GFS this run. Crazy how poor the Euro has been this season

Huge differences between GFS and EURO/CMC camps. No change to our weather but model handling of that system has been terrible

Significant upside with this system but two totally different camps. It does have a significant -NAO and there is cold air north of it. Good sign for a major storm across guidance but obviously a lot needs to go right for something other than cold rain and I don’t discount the GFS inland track at all

SER is now a permanent fixture. I’m sure we’ll see 90’s in March while New England freezes

Probably the first time since NWS started issuing products the entire RAH forecast area went an entire winter without even a WWA issued

Had to turn it on yesterday. Upstairs was 75, too hot for me