NorthHillsWx

12z GEFS was in a word: BAD Reverts back to a western trough. Pacific reigns supreme through the run. Hopefully it remains on an island

We’ll just have to see who wins this one I guess!

GEFS gets a western ridge, but it’s situated too far west. That’s a cutter look late January

06z GFS punts the pattern change till February, if at all

28.8 with probably the heaviest frost of the year this morning. At least it looked wintry out

18z GFS op run might be the worst mid January run from end to end I have ever seen. Absolutely not even close to anything anywhere in SE. GEFS was slightly better towards the end of the month

Agree with this. I think the problem is all of us want to enter February with “money in the bank” (at least one event in the December-January period). Getting blanked through 2-3 of our best climo doesn’t sit well with anyone and relying on February for all of our winter weather threats doesn’t work out well. So far, any pattern change or threat remains more than 2 weeks down the road and the period until then is absolutely garbage with cutter after cutter and zero cold air anywhere near the east coast. That’s a fact.

This may be the post of the winter

Might be the first snowless winter I can remember

March will save us this winter

I got weenied for saying this period (11th-on) looked interesting a few days ago. Now we’ve got a whole page devoted to it. I’m calling this a win already!

18z GFS looks downright interesting

Euro has an absolute bomb on the 11th. It’s still offshore and cold air is limited but I haven’t 100% given up on this timeframe.

18z has lots of potential from the 11th-on

February will save us…

Still intrigued by the 7-10th timeframe. Cold air seems marginal but it’s one of those setups we’ve cashed in on with a lead wave followed by coastal development on the stalled boundary behind it while cooler air seeps in. By no means a slam duck but these are ones that tend to be less likely to cut and usually won’t be sampled well until we get closer so there being a signal across guidance is encouraging

I actually like this timeframe. Persistent troughiness in east. Seems like cold air source would be from NE which usually works better than MW for us. Kind of an overrunning pattern. Just need good HP

Honestly, get the PAC right and I’ll take my chances with the NAO. We all know that our winter weather chances are dominated by the Pacific.

23.8 here this morning. First morning since Friday we didn’t end up in the teens. Lows for the cold snap: 9.6, 19.4, 15.1, 23.8. Definitely been an impressive cold snap for there being no snowcover anywhere near us. Feels very wasted especially knowing it will take more than a week to reload

19.4 was our low this morning. Surprised it wasn’t lower, seemed destined for another low-10’s after our high of 29

Yea, just need to burn through 3 weeks of winter to get there

Long range is… depressing

We cracked single digits. 9.6 and still falling

I think there will be widespread single digits tonight. We’re down below 23 and falling steadily. Absolutely wild weather day

While I will say it seems likely we end up with a below-well below normal temp for December, our inability to capitalize on otherwise promising patterns has rendered long range forecasts and teleconnections almost useless to me for trying to predict winter weather. It’s a tough pill to swallow seeing the temps coming the next few days and not having any storm systems remotely close to even track. I’m not done with this winter yet, I am liking all the early cold, but at some point we’re going to have to do something on the winter weather front. Outside of one moderate system last year and a snow-rain system in early December 2018, it’s been completely dead here on the snow front.