NorthHillsWx

Ouch, long range ensembles now mostly hold onto the SE ridge idea through the end of the month. Ugly doesn’t do it justice. Not sure if the fat lady has sung but she’s warming up, as we do too.

Ouch… overnight and morning runs were not good for anyone. Hope something changes otherwise this is a novelty event for anyone who even sees snow outside the mountains. Here in Raleigh we’ll enjoy our not-even-that-cold rain

Usually it does a terrible job showing precipitation coverage (usually way underdone) but an above average job at depicting precip type

It’s usually very useful for thermals.

EPS has a different look but GFS is definitely trying to press the cold at the end of the month. Hopefully it settles further east but at range it’s a very good look. I still think we have a small shot of something during the 17-19th period followed by a warmup and then the final week of the month will need to be watched.

Upstate areas better be smiling after that Euro run. That’s a positive trend. NC mountain areas are about to get smoked! If there was a Storm anyone wanted to drive up for it would be this one. Wet snow is going to look beautiful up there

Canadian just continues to want no part of this

I think we (triangle) can throw in the towel. Probably could’ve yesterday but I was hanging onto hope. Really pulling for upstate and Georgia folks. Plenty of non-mountain areas still in play for a good storm!

Someone in the mountains is going to get a foot of snow out of this

Gotta say, for once a more progressive solution would’ve worked out a lot better for most areas. Saturday looks completely dry here now, this thing has slowed wayyyy down

I honestly think mesoscale models may be better for this event given how localized it is going to be. We’re starting to get to the period where I look at NAM thermals more than GFS and Euro and it certainly is maximizing dynamic cooling in the upstate/western piedmont area. For the mountains, I don’t want to jinx it, but this is looking more and more like a lock for a moderate-major snowstorm. KGSP has some of the most entertaining AFD’s of any office and this event is absolutely no different. I totally agree, this is going to be a nightmare to forecast outside the mountains up until it does what it does. Would not surprise me if this is an event a few counties go from a Special Weather statement to a WSW based on what’s actually happening and if the NAMs correct, those rates will overwhelm melting on everything. I think it’s either going to be ridiculously heavy snow with parachutes falling or cold rain. Nothing in between for upstate areas

Gfs keeps the 17th-19th window open at 18z. There is also a signal on the GEFS for this timeframe

18z GFS is much further south and a hair slower. If you live from Augusta to greenwood to Charlotte, 18z is about as good as you can ask for

18z NAM says what’s up eastern TN!

If the antecedent airmass around this storm was even close to what you’d expect for the time of year the H5 setup on GEFS is just about textbook for an area-wide major snow. Too bad there just isn’t any cold air available north of the system or this thing could’ve gone bonkers with the qpf forecast

If I’m in the mountains or SW Virginia, I’m feeling really really good right now for snow, possibly significant. If I’m along the 85 corridor from the upstate through Charlotte to the triad, I’m feeling pretty good about seeing snow. Accumulations are 50/50 there right now. East of 85, you’re getting into “say a prayer” mode. Im happy as long as part of this forum scores with this one. It was never going to be a synoptic area-wide event so really not much has changed other than timing and where the narrow snow area goes. I bet it waffles back and forth the next few days. If you want snow further east, look for a more progressive, amped solution. Slower solutions are getting tugged further north and west and are allowing the upper levels to warm further east after the low passes.

There’s been a signal for something in the 17-19th timeframe along with some actual cold air unlike with this weekend’s system

I think it’s actually the opposite. I think faster timing gives less time for the upper level cool pool temps to moderate allowing for rates to capitalize on top down dynamic cooling. Slower solutions are showing moderation of temps in the upper levels and thus no cold air available and mostly rain solutions. The HP is kind of a non factor here besides for storm track bc the air associated with it and dew points are just too high to make a difference for freezing/frozen

12z GFS another good run for western half of the piedmont. Maybe not quite as good as 6z but still very heavy snow in similar areas

ICON a big hit for mountains/western piedmont/SW Va. Its been very persistent last few runs, I’ll give it that

It took till February 8th for something to track but better late than never

Someone getting NAMd for sure this evening

Battle of the losing streaks in chapel hill…

Agreed but no one can write it off yet either from the upstate through the piedmont and ULL are best known for surprises. I really think the upstate is more in play than a lot of modeling has shown to this point. For points east it really is going to depend on SLP track and strength and be an absolute thread the needle type of deal but it certainly will be entertaining to track bc I don’t think this will be resolved until the event starts. I’ve never known one of these setups to be resolved with any lead time, this will be no different

This seems thread-worthy at this point with all guidance buying into something for somewhere in the forum 4 days out. Not sure who dares start it though…