NorthHillsWx

Was out of town over the weekend but picked up 0.60” to bring our monthly total to 3.33” imby

0Z guidance was a snooze fest

ASCAT revealed that this system has successfully, though slowly, been organizing. However, visible, water vapor and IR imagery shows what the system is up against. On visible, numerous outflow boundaries can be seen from collapsed storms, indicating dry air. Further, on IR, it’s beginning to have “popcorn” storms on the NW side. A telltale sign of dry air in the formative circulation. Water vapor confirms the dry air it is moving into. Looking at IR, while you can’t see the formative surface circulation as you can on visible, you can see several areas of mid level rotation along the wave axis. This shows the system is still quite disorganized. Lastly, 91L for days has been able to generate constant deep convection as it was still associated with the monsoon trough and in a moist envelope. We’re just now seeing what life outside the monsoon trough will be like for the system, and it’s a similar story as everything else that’s traversed this part of the Atlantic, dry and sheared. This is taking a huge toll on the convective envelope of the system right now. 91L has a couple things working for it previous waves didn’t: 1) it’s the furthest west a wave has made it in a very long time without being obliterated 2) north of the islands looks, to different degrees, favorable for development 3) it has a formulative center, and being able to keep some of this organization will help it take advantage of a more favorable environment in a few days, if it can I think the system’s initial development has been capped as of this morning when it entered the hostile conditions currently affecting it. These hostile conditions should stop any continued organization for at least the next 2 days. Beyond that, this will be a named storm, finally

Overall guidance has trended downward in regards to intensity with 91L. There are still some strong solutions but the interaction with the TUTT seems to be trending towards a less favorable look, even in the EPS guidance which had a very favorable environment east of the Bahamas yesterday. My best guess is the low that had been shown to form north of the system along the trough is no longer present allowing the TUTT to extended further south that previously shown. Other observations from morning guidance definitely has trended further west with weaker solutions, with stronger solutions trending towards a recurve. Low level steering is generally east-west but the trough that previously had shown LP development to the north of 91L, with HP rebuilding west behind it, is now just a trough. This would be the escape path out to sea with a stronger/deeper system. It also shows shear as low level steering and mid level flows are at odds. Long story short, 91L has a questionable future for intensity and track, but I am very confident it will become a NS around 60W. Beyond that, I think guidance has trended weaker overall and future path options will hinge on intensity, LP development to the north along the trough, and where a LP center eventually forms for 91L.

I love this board. Carry on

That wave that just came off the African coast is one of the most robust-looking waves this season. Guidance is murky on it in the short term, but it looks more organized than guidance would seem to indicate. Maybe this one can spin up before it runs into the Atlantic Sahara?

That wave that comes off the African coast around the 30th is likely our “D” storm. Whether it develops before the end of the month or not we can’t tell, but if it fails to develop in general, I’m throwing in the towel on the MDR this season.

I don’t have 8” the last 3 seasons combined lmao

1997, 1961, 1941, and I found a 4th, 1929. So this would technically be the 5th time it has ever happened and first in 25 years. During a season that was forecast to be hyperactive, no less. I want to throw a disclaimer that I personally think we’ll get a NS but it will come down to the last or second to last day of the month and will come from that incredibly strong AEW that models and ensemble guidance have picked up for days. If that fails to pan out, I see nothing else that will get named and we’re in crunch time, less than a week to go in August

It looks like it’s going to come down to the last two days of the month as to whether or not we put August 2022 in the history books as the 4th August to ever go without a NS…

That may be where we’re headed. Something tells me we won’t get away unscathed

It’s in a good moisture envelope however… it’s squarely centered in an area of 25-30+ kts of easterly shear. Too far south, you’re in the shear. Too far north, shear looks favorable but you’re stuck in the SAL. It’s a no-win for any AEW at the moment

Absurd

I’m still thinking we get a system by the last couple days of the month but the AEWs forecast to produce HAVE to produce that first week of September or this season is sunk from having any chance of above normal activity. The bar has been lowered from hyperactive expectations (fast and furious watch for August, lol) to probably now in all likelihood clawing to meet average seasonal activity. There’s still a great signal from almost all ensemble modeling that the period between August 28-September 7 will feature several systems in quick succession. That will be critical to where we land as a season. We miss that period, we’re sitting at September 10, the climatological peak, and downward climo. It’s conceivable at this point we end with BN activity, but that week starting at the end of this month through beginning of September will be absolutely critical from a seasonal perspective

This was the GEFS from a week ago… I mean we’re talking full-on ensemble fail at this point

GFS backed development off on the Caribbean system pretty much until it gets to the GOM. Par for the course this season, get around 5 days (or more) out then push back or drop development. At least the models are showing a consistent signal for the last couple days of the month going into September being more active. If we get past that period with nothing to show, this season is going to be an epic bust. It only takes one, but goodness this is probably going to replace 2013 as the biggest season bust, total activity-wise

8.2”? I would think a sloppy 1.2” then change to 33 and cold rain would be more appropriate in that scenario

What should we be watching to see if there is any merit to some of the models in developing this trough? It looks like the players are already on the field (over water). Are there any hints that a solution like the GFS with eastern Caribbean development may be onto something at present? As stated, this is not a long or mid range forecast. This should already be starting to show it’s hand.

One point you make that I truly agree with is that few storms with very high intensity several days out end up the strongest at landfall. It always seems the most powerful landfalling storms are the ones that rapidly strengthened into or just before landfall. Ida, Harvey, Laura and of course Michael are great recent examples. And of course Dorian in the Bahamas. Very rarely does a storm mature days out and hold onto a similar high-end intensity into a US landfall. Even Katrina, Rita, and Irma were weakening upon landfall

Great video, I had actually just watched this before I saw your post. The only other similar pressure drop at landfall was with Michael, but still, Andrew reigns king in the modern era

We’re starting to hone in on the August 29-first week of September period for a MDR storm (Multiple models showing development of the same waves in this period and strong ensemble support). Will be a race to see if we can get a name by the end of the month, but suffice it to say, I expect September to start much differently than the way August has gone. Interestingly, the 00z GFS developed that disturbance coming off S America that the Icon has shown for a couple days, before the AEWs in question develop. There has periodically been some ensemble support for this system, though shear in the eastern Caribbean looks less favorable than other parts of the basin (But it avoids the suffocating SAL). Something to watch as it’s getting into closer range at least. Lastly, I haven’t given up on the GOM this weekend yet. There looks to be at least some form of an active west Caribbean gyre and models have periodically shown some development out of this feature. Very low chance at this point, but it’s something to watch on the models as we get through this week. On another note, the global dry spell for hurricanes/typhoons was ended this morning in the western pacific.

Picked up 0.08” this evening from a decaying shower

They also had that last gulf system as >70% haha

This will be the first one to set the table for future AEWs. GFS does a good job showing how the SAL circulating through the MDR is modified after each wave passage and the environment becomes better and better. The end of the GFS run shows a very moist environment after the passage of subsequent waves that should lead to MDR development coinciding with peak season.

GFS pushing back the development of the lead AEW even further and kinda splits the next wave. Not looking for specifics at that range but the trend with the first wave is definitely much, much more delayed development if any. The chances of going 0-0-0 in August are slowly creeping up unless something in the Caribbean, GOM, or mid latitudes pops up